2024年《全球可持续发展报告》指出，环境可持续发展目标的进展显著滞后。国际援助作为推动全球环境治理的关键政策工具，其有效性备受关注。然而，现有研究多聚焦于援助对宏观指标的影响，导致国际社会对援助项目的设计缺乏微观依据，难以凝聚公众的环保共识。基于此，本研究首次将援助领域的研究拓展至微观个体层面，实证检验了不同类型援助如何塑造受援国民众对于经济发展和环境保护的偏好，结合案例分析，为下一步开展国际援助提供结构性改革建议，为理解跨国政策反馈提供新视角。本研究选用2004-2022年的52个受援国及内部参与过世界价值观第五轮至第七轮调查的154665个民众作为两级研究单位，匹配OECD-CRS数据库的国际援助项目信息，搭建混合截面嵌套数据，采用多层Logistic混合效应模型、多层有序Logistic混合效应模型进行分析。自变量是国际援助项目总量和绿色援助、非绿色援助项目数量，因变量是个体的经济环保偏好、经济偏好程度和环保偏好程度。研究通过替换自变量、替换模型、更换样本周期的方式进行稳健性检验，并用工具变量法排除了模型的内生性。结果表明，国际援助通过负向影响受援国民众的环保偏好程度，显著提升了民众对“经济优先于环保”的支持。其中，非绿色援助通过正向提升受援国民众的经济偏好程度、负向抑制其环保偏好程度，促使民众支持经济优先。然而，绿色援助对受援国民众的经济偏好程度和环保偏好程度均无显著影响，因此无法促使民众支持环保优先。进一步的异质性分析结果显示，当受援国为中低收入国家时，国际援助使得民众偏向支持经济优先的作用加深，只有受援国为中高收入国家或非洲国家时，绿色援助才显著提升民众支持环保优先的概率，并且非洲是唯一国际援助整体对民众支持环保优先有正向促进作用的地区。2015年可持续发展目标提出后，绿色援助显著提升了受援国民众支持环保优先的概率，非绿色援助对环保优先倾向的抑制作用也有所减弱。综上，本文提出了如下政策建议：优化国际援助结构，扩大绿色援助规模；加强技术制度适配和本土化叙事，提升绿色援助效能；针对受援国类型和所在区域实施差异化援助策略；强化国际协同，建立科学的援助监测和追踪体系。未来研究可进一步开展机制检验，并精进变量的测度方式。
According to the Global Sustainability Report 2024, progress on environmental Sustainable Development Goals is lagging significantly. Global challenges require global cooperation, and the effectiveness of international aid as a key policy tool to promote environmental governance is of great concern. However, existing studies mostly focus on the impact of aid on macro indicators such as carbon emissions and technology diffusion, resulting in a lack of micro basis for the design of aid projects in the international community, and it is difficult to build public consensus on the environmental agenda. In this context, for the first time, this study extends the research in the field of aid to the micro-individual level, combined with case analysis, empirically examines how different types of aid shape people's preferences for economic development and environmental protection in recipient countries, fills the gaps in existing literature, provides structural reform suggestions for the next step of international aid, and provides a new perspective for understanding transnational policy feedback.In this study, 52 countries that received aid from 2004 to 2022 and 154,665 individuals who participated in the fifth to seventh rounds of World Values surveys were selected as two-level research units, matching the information of international aid projects in the OECD-CRS database, and building mixed cross section nested data. Multilayer Logistic mixed effect model and multilayer ordered Logistic mixed effect model were used for analysis. The independent variable is the total number of international aid projects and the number of green aid and non-green aid projects, and the dependent variable is the individual's economic and environmental protection preference, degree of economic preference and degree of environmental protection preference. The robustness test was carried out by changing the independent variables, changing the model and changing the sample period, and the endogeneity of the model was excluded by the instrumental variable method. The results show that international aid significantly improves people's support for "economic priority over environmental protection" by negatively affecting people's environmental preference in recipient countries. Non-green aid encourages the public to support economic priority by positively enhancing the economic preference of the people in recipient countries and negatively inhibiting their environmental preference. However, green aid has no significant impact on the degree of economic preference and environmental protection preference of the people in recipient countries, so it cannot motivate people to support environmental protection priority. The results of further heterogeneity analysis show that when the recipient country is a lower-middle-income and low-income country, the effect of international aid on people's preference for economic priority is deepened, and only when the recipient country is a upper-middle-income and high-income country or African country, green aid significantly increases the probability of people supporting environmental protection priority. And Africa is the only region where international aid as a whole has a positive impact on public support for environmental priorities. After the Sustainable Development Goals were proposed in 2015, green aid significantly increased the probability of people in recipient countries supporting environmental protection priority, while non-green aid also weakened the inhibition effect on environmental protection priority.In summary, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: optimize the international aid structure and expand the scale of green aid; Strengthen the adaptation of technology system and local narration to improve the effectiveness of green aid; Implement differentiated aid strategies according to the type and region of recipient countries; Strengthen international coordination and establish a scientific aid monitoring and tracking system. Future research can further carry out the mechanism test and improve the measurement of variables.
