有序推进农业转移人口市民化，是实施以人为核心新型城镇化战略的首要任务，也是城市高质量发展的内在要求。目前，针对农业转移人口市民化的研究，较少关注微观和宏观因素的交互效应。在梳理以往研究基础上，论文提出了“市民化机会”概念，来讨论不同规模等级城市中农业转移人口市民化及各类因素影响的异质性问题。基于中国城市统计年鉴和流动人口动态监测数据，论文使用熵权法分别构建了城市综合发展水平和市民化水平指标体系；使用多层模型、交互效应模型，较系统地分析了微观、宏观因素对农业转移人口市民化影响的独立效应和交互效应；在分样本回归的基础上，使用系数集束化和夏普利值分解，探讨在不同规模等级城市中，影响农业转移人口市民化的主导因素；讨论了不同特征群体在不同规模等级城市中的就近市民化与异地市民化模式问题。研究发现：（1）农业转移人口在流入城市的定居意愿较高，但落户意愿和市民化水平偏低，且不同等级规模城市间存在梯度差异，其中，超大城市市民化水平显著高于其他城市。（2）微观和宏观因素均对农业转移人口市民化具有显著影响，受教育水平较高，职业稳定性越好，特别是从事商业服务业，本地居住时间越长的群体越倾向在超大城市、大城市特大城市定居、落户，市民化水平也较高。（3）影响定居意愿、落户意愿和市民化水平的主导因素分别是流动特征、城市发展和人力资本。除了人力资本和流动特征外，在超大城市，城市发展对市民化影响较大；而在中小城市，承包地、宅基地、集体收益分红等权益和社会资本的影响更突出。（4）接受高等教育、社会交往促进了农业转移人口在超大城市异地市民化；承包地等土地权益，对中小城市农业转移人口异地市民化促进作用更突出；在超大城市，公共服务、空间发展以及创新能力，对异地市民化促进作用更明显；经济发展对中小城市农业转移人口异地市民化促进作用更突出。总之，城市差异，为农业转移人口提供了差异性市民化机会，各类因素对市民化的影响在不同规模等级城市之间具有异质性。为进一步提升农业转移人口市民化水平，本文建议：（1）对不同城市分类施策，实施差异化的城镇化战略。（2）对不同城市中不同特征人群分类施策，采取多元市民化推进策略。（3）推动不同规模等级城市协同发展，结合城市自身的综合承载能力和市民化机会供给能力，引导农业转移人口选择适合自身特征且能够满足自身需求的城市定居、落户。

The systematic advancement of agricultural migrant population urbanization is the foremost task in implementing the new urbanization strategy focused on people, and it is also an essential requirement for high-quality urban development. Currently, there is a lack of research on the process of urbanization from both micro and macro interaction perspectives. Building on previous research, this paper introduces the concept of Urbanization Opportunities to discuss the heterogeneous factors affecting the urbanization of agricultural migrant populations in cities of different scales. Leveraging the data from China City Statistical Yearbook and China Migrants Dynamic Survey, the study formulates comprehensive development and urbanization level indicator systems using the Entropy Weighting Method. It employs Multilevel Models, and Interaction Effect Models to analyze the independent and interaction effects of micro and macro factors on the urbanization of the agricultural migrant populations. Additionally, it uses Sheaf Coefficients and the Shapley Value Decomposition to identify the dominant factors influencing the urbanization of the agricultural migrant populations. It also discusses the issues of near-to-home urbanization and remote urbanization patterns for different demographic groups in cities of different scales.The study reveals the following findings: (1) Agricultural migrant populations in urban areas show strong aspirations of settlement, yet their willingness to obtain local household registration and level of urbanization is relatively low. There are gradient differences between cities of different scales, with the urbanization level in mega-cities being significantly higher than in other cities. (2) Both micro and macro factors have a significant influence on the urbanization of agricultural migrant populations. Those with higher education levels, greater occupational stability, especially those engaged in commercial services, and longer local residency tend to settle and obtain urban household registration in metropolises, large cities, resulting in a relatively high level of urbanization.(3) The primary factors affecting aspirations of settlement, obtaining local household registration, and achieve urbanization are mobility characters, urban development, and human capital. Alongside human capital and mobility characters, urban development significantly impacts the urbanization of agricultural migrant populations in metropolises. On the other hand, factors such as farmland, homestead land, collective dividends, and social capital have a more pronounced impact on the urbanization of agricultural migrant populations in medium and small cities. (4) Higher level of education and social capital significantly enhances the out-of-town urbanization of agricultural migrant workers in metropolises. Conversely, factors such as farmland rights have a more pronounced facilitating effect on the urbanization of agricultural migrant populations in medium and small cities. In metropolises, public services, spatial planning, innovation, and economic development play a more prominent role in promoting out-of-town urbanization, whereas economic development has a more pronounced effect on promoting the urbanization of agricultural migrant populations in medium and small cities.In conclusion, differentiation in urban size and development level offers diverse regional urbanization opportunities for the agricultural migrant populations, the impact of micro-level factors on urbanization varies across cities of different scales. To further advance the systematic urbanization of the agricultural migrant populations, this study suggests the following actions: (1) Implement differentiated urbanization strategies based on various city classifications. Super-large cities should further enhance urban inclusiveness and elevate the level of public service equalization, while small and medium-sized cities should focus on economic development and enhancing their appeal and acceptance of agricultural migrant population urbanization. (2) Employ varied strategies for promoting urbanization for different population groups with distinct characteristics in different cities. (3) Establish a mechanism for coordinated development between large cities and small and medium-sized cities, considering their comprehensive carrying capacity and urbanization opportunities and costs to guide the orderly migration of the agricultural migrant populations.