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自然灾害影响城市化工区域的多灾种耦合风险评估方法

Methodology on Multi-hazard Coupling Risk Assessment for the Impact of Natural Disasters on Urban Chemical Regions

作者:汪嘉俊
  • 学号
    2019******
  • 学位
    博士
  • 电子邮箱
    wan******com
  • 答辩日期
    2024.05.21
  • 导师
    翁文国
  • 学科名
    安全科学与工程
  • 页码
    132
  • 保密级别
    公开
  • 培养单位
    032 工物系
  • 中文关键词
    公共安全;自然灾害;Natech;耦合风险;风险评估
  • 英文关键词
    Public safety; Natural disasters; Natech; Coupling risk; Risk assessment

摘要

我国是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一,同时,城市化进程的加快压缩了化工区域与城市间的安全距离。自然灾害对化工区域中的工业设备造成破坏产生Natech(Natural Hazard triggered Technological Accident)事件,灾害和事故共同对化工区域周边的城市区域造成影响,可能产生多灾种耦合情景,造成大量人员伤亡、财产损失和环境破坏。因此,对此情景下的多灾种耦合风险进行评估,对保障公共安全和社会稳定具有重要意义。本文旨在建立自然灾害影响城市化工区域的多灾种耦合风险评估方法,构建自然灾害复合情景损伤工业设备的耦合风险评估方法,并提出自然灾害影响下多化工主体耦合风险计算模型,最后构建自然灾害影响城市化工及周边区域的风险评估和改进情景分析模型,提出风险应对的优化措施。 本文研究了多灾种情景中灾害事故的关系,提出了自然灾害损伤工业设备的耦合风险评估方法和多化工主体耦合风险计算模型,提出了自然灾害影响城市区域时城市单元风险指标分析方法,进而建立了自然灾害影响城市化工区域的多灾种耦合风险评估方法流程。 本文对自然灾害复合情景对重要化工设备储罐造成破坏进行了耦合风险评估。通过整合和新建物理模型,从破坏条件、破坏抵抗、破坏概率计算等多个方面分析自然灾害对储罐造成的影响,分析了储罐不同破坏模式之间的关联关系,并在计算过程中加入了自然灾害之间的物理耦合效应。进一步地,本文构建了自然灾害影响多化工主体的耦合风险评估模型,提出了Natech耦合风险指标及其计算方法,通过“等效人口数量”的计算同时考虑了物理性设施和功能性设施的影响。模型使用关联多准则方法,引入模糊测度空间,使用非线性加和的方式处理了Natech耦合风险的模糊性和不确定性,研究结果表明了通过工业设施之间的耦合,风险转移到了化工设施物理上影响不到的人口和经济上的“传递效应”。 本文进一步进行了多灾情景下城市化工及周边区域的风险应对优化研究。一方面,提出了城市单元的风险应对需求满足性评估方法,从需求等级和资源满足性两方面进行分析,并结合实际案例提出风险应对需求满足性提升建议;另一方面,构建了改进情景分析模型,以城市暴雨—洪涝复杂情景为例,基于模型分析结果提出多灾情景下城市化工及周边区域风险应对优化建议。

China is one of the countries with the most severe natural disasters in the world, and at the same time, the acceleration of urbanization has compressed the safe distance between chemical industrial areas and cities. Natural disasters can cause damage to industrial equipment in chemical areas, leading to Natech events (Natural Hazard triggered Technological Accident). The combined impact of disasters and accidents can affect the urban areas surrounding the chemical zones, potentially leading to scenarios of multi-hazard couplings that can cause significant casualties, property losses, and environmental destruction. Therefore, assessing the risks of multi-hazard couplings in such scenarios is crucial for safeguarding public safety and social stability. The aim of this thesis is to establish a multi-hazard coupling risk assessment method for the impact of natural disasters on urban chemical areas. This includes developing a coupling risk assessment approach for the compound scenarios of natural disasters damaging industrial equipment, proposing a calculation model for the coupling risk of multiple chemical entities under the influence of natural disasters, and ultimately constructing a risk assessment and improved scenario analysis model for the impact of natural disasters on urban chemical and surrounding areas. Furthermore, optimized measures for risk response are proposed.This thesis examines the relationships between disasters and accidents in multi-hazard scenarios, introduces a coupling risk assessment method for natural disasters damaging industrial equipment and a calculation model for the coupling risk of multiple chemical entities. An analysis method for urban unit risk indicators under the influence of natural disasters is proposed. Subsequently, a multi-hazard coupling risk assessment methodology for the impact of natural disasters on urban chemical areas is established.The thesis conducts a coupling risk assessment of the damage caused by compound natural disaster scenarios to critical chemical equipment storage tanks. By integrating and developing physical models, the impact of natural disasters on storage tanks is analyzed from multiple perspectives, including damage conditions, resistance to damage, and calculation of damage probabilities. The correlation between different damage modes of the storage tanks is analyzed, and the physical coupling effects between natural disasters are incorporated into the calculation process. Furthermore, a coupling risk assessment model for the impact of natural disasters on multiple chemical entities is constructed, and Natech coupling risk indicators and their calculation methods are proposed. The model takes into account the impact of both physical and functional facilities through the calculation of "equivalent population". The model uses an associated multi-criteria approach, introduces fuzzy measure spaces, and handles the fuzziness and uncertainty of Natech coupling risks through nonlinear aggregation. The research results demonstrate the "transmission effect" of risk transfer through coupling between industrial facilities to economy and population that are physically unreachable by chemical facilities.This thesis further conducts research on the optimization of risk response measures for urban chemical and surrounding areas under multi-hazard scenarios. On the one hand, a method for assessing the satisfaction of risk response needs for urban units is proposed, analyzing both the needs level and resource availability. Combined with actual cases, suggestions for improving the satisfaction of risk response needs are provided. On the other hand, an improved scenario analysis model is constructed, taking the complex scenario of urban rainstorm-waterlogging as an example. Based on the results of the model analysis, optimized suggestions for risk response in urban chemical and surrounding areas under multi-hazard scenarios are proposed.