推进碳达峰、碳中和是中国坚定的战略目标。作为道路运输、钢铁生产等技术选择少、减排成本高的“难减排部门”重要的深度减排技术选择，氢能的重要性日益凸显。氢能发展对能源系统以及难减排部门的上下游都将造成影响，需从全生命周期的角度分析氢能供应链及氢能应用场景的节能减排表现与减排成本；与相同研究框架下对纯电动汽车、废钢-电弧炉炼钢等深度减排技术的评估相结合，实现公平对比，进而为氢能发展战略的制定和技术路线的选择提供参考。本研究构建起中国氢能供应链及氢能应用综合分析模型及数据库，科学评估和预测了中国氢能供应链全生命周期技术经济表现；对氢能在直接使用、道路交通、钢铁生产三类代表应用场景的能耗、排放及成本情况进行了评估，并在同等的研究框架和基础数据下对相应的传统技术路线、与氢进行竞争的减排技术路线进行了评估；进而通过各类技术路线的公平对比，得出氢能供应链及氢能应用的优势利用场景、重要技术环节、GHG减排潜力及减排成本。此外，研究结合中国的产业实际，对地方氢能补贴政策、GHG核算方法、车辆电动化/氢能化对车辆载货效率的影响等问题进行了讨论。最终为中国氢能发展提供了相关政策建议。本研究的主要结论有：（1）当前条件下，最受关注的“绿氢-长管拖车运输-车用”路线的成本较高（53.7-72.9元/kg），且减排效益被储运加注环节（3.98-4.78 kgCO2,eq/kgH2）严重削弱，与副产氢、水电/核能制氢相当；煤制氢具有最低的成本（14.0-16.0元/kg），考虑到中国的资源禀赋，先进煤制氢（+CCS）等蓝氢技术是合格的过渡选择；在管道输氢充分建设之前，应当避免跨区域运氢；（2）未来氢能供应链各环节的排放、成本都有望得到改善，2020-2040年煤制氢（+CCS）可以作为绿氢的补充，2040年分布式网电制氢的排放有望减少到与蓝氢相当，可以规模化推广；制氢的电力/设备成本是成本下降的主要驱动因素；（3）氢能汽车的减排效益高度依赖地区电力结构，需要因地制宜进行发展；2020-2030年期间，以矿山/港口运输和长距离运输为代表的重型载货卡车是氢能最适用的场景且有望平价推广，氢能巴士的成本效益与电动巴士相比则并不明显；（4）绿氢炼钢有望实现近零排放，与废钢-电弧炉相互补充；纯氢炼钢减排成本较高，采用部分氢/副产氢炼钢可以将减排成本减少到废钢-电弧炉水平；（5）建议尽早设计灵活补贴退坡机制、完善氢能GHG排放核算/认证标准。
Promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is China‘s firm strategic goal. As an important deep emission reduction technology choice for difficult emission reduction sectors with few technological options and high emission reduction costs such as road transportation and steel production, the importance of hydrogen energy is increasingly prominent. The development of hydrogen energy will have an impact on the upstream and downstream of the energy system and the sectors that are difficult to reduce emissions. We need to analyze the performance and cost of energy conservation and emission reduction in the hydrogen supply chain and hydrogen energy application scenarios from the perspective of the whole life cycle. After that, we combine the same research framework with the evaluation of deep emission reduction technologies such as pure electric vehicles and scrap electric arc furnace steelmaking to achieve fair comparison, and then we provide reference for the formulation of hydrogen energy development strategy and the selection of technical route.In this study, the comprehensive analysis model, database of China‘s hydrogen energy supply chain and hydrogen energy application were constructed. The technical and economic performance of China‘s hydrogen energy supply chain in the whole life cycle was scientifically evaluated and predicted. This study evaluated the energy consumption, emissions and costs of hydrogen energy in direct use, road transportation and steel production, evaluating the corresponding traditional technology routes and emission reduction technology routes that compete with hydrogen under the same research framework and basic data. Furthermore, through the comparison of various technological routes, this study identifies the advantageous utilization scenarios, important technological links, GHG emission reduction potential and emission reduction costs of the hydrogen energy supply chain and hydrogen energy application. In addition, this study combines the actual industry situation in China to discuss issues such as local hydrogen subsidy policies, GHG accounting methods and the impact of the vehicle electrification with hydrogen electrification on vehicle loading efficiency, ultimately providing relevant policy recommendations for China‘s hydrogen energy development.The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) Under the current conditions, the green hydrogen with long tube trailer transportation vehicle route which was most concerned has a high cost (53.7-72.9 Yuan/kg), and the emission reduction benefit is seriously weakened by the storage, transportation and filling link (3.98-4.78 kgCO2,eq/kgH2), which is equivalent to the by-product hydrogen, hydro electric and nuclear hydrogen production. Coal to hydrogen has the lowest cost (14.0-16.0 Yuan/kg). Considering China‘s resource endowment, blue hydrogen technology represented by advanced coal to hydrogen (+CCS) is a qualified transitional choice. Before the pipeline hydrogen transportation is fully constructed, cross regional hydrogen transportation should be avoided. (2) In the future, the emissions and costs of all links of the hydrogen supply chain are expected to be improved. From 2020 to 2040, coal to hydrogen (+CCS) can be used as a supplement to green hydrogen. In 2040, the emissions of distributed grid hydrogen generation are expected to be reduced to the same level as blue hydrogen, which can be popularized on a large scale. The cost of electricity and equipment for hydrogen production is the main driving factor for cost reduction. (3) The emission reduction benefits of hydrogen energy vehicles are highly dependent on the regional power structure, which needs to be developed according to local conditions. During 2020-2030, heavy trucks represented by mining, port transportation and long-distance transportation are the most suitable scenarios for hydrogen energy and are expected to be popularized at a low price, while the cost-effectiveness of hydrogen buses is not obvious compared with electric buses. (4) Green hydrogen steelmaking is expected to achieve near zero emissions, which is complementary to scrap arc furnace. The emission reduction cost of pure hydrogen steelmaking is relatively high, using partial hydrogen and by-product hydrogen steelmaking can reduce the emission reduction cost to the scrap electric arc furnace level. (5) We have formulated policy recommendations to design a flexible subsidy rebate mechanism as soon as possible, improving hydrogen energy GHG emission accounting and certification standards.
