推动北方城镇供暖脱碳转型是中国实现碳中和目标的关键措施之一。我国北方城镇多采用集中供暖，现有热源结构以煤为主，产生大量的CO2排放。未来面向碳中和愿景，北方城镇供暖必须进行深刻变革，基于热电联产、工业余热等的低/零碳集中供暖以及各类热泵是主要的技术选择。受电力与工业转型、各地资源禀赋与经济社会发展等影响，热电联产、余热等热源在不同地区的可利用量存在较大不确定性，难以形成清晰的供暖脱碳转型路径。 在以上背景下，本研究围绕我国低碳供暖转型路径展开，构建了中国北方城镇供暖综合分析模型，包含了三方面的研究。第一，考虑余热资源的技术约束，围绕热电联产、工业余热、数据中心余热等低碳供暖技术，采用自下而上的方法系统评估了从工序-工艺-行业-区域的多层级供暖资源潜力，并结合电力及工业部门的碳中和转型特征，分析了2020-2060年供暖资源潜力变化趋势。第二，考虑集中供热的空间距离等约束，构建了供暖源-荷空间匹配模型，结合高分辨率的厂级电力和工业点源数据以及单体建筑物数据，分析了低碳热源和供暖热需求的空间匹配情况并刻画了中长期变化趋势，评估了现在及未来低碳热源用于集中供暖的资源潜力。第三，在中国省级能源系统模型中详细刻画了供暖能源系统，描述了热电联产、工业余热等低碳供暖技术与建筑节能技术，对北方各省的低碳供暖资源进行详细刻画，在省级层面分析了碳中和愿景下未来中国北方城镇供暖的技术组合、能源消费、碳排放和污染物排放情况。 研究表明：（1）2020年，全国全年、北方全年和北方冬季的主要低碳供暖资源潜力分别为470亿、257亿和95亿GJ，远超当前北方城镇供暖需求，热电联产占比最大。未来伴随电力及工业低碳转型，总供暖资源潜力相比2020年降低10%-39%。（2）从空间上看，2020年，热电联产和工业余热热源与周围建筑热需求的空间可匹配资源潜力分布在8.4亿-24.8亿GJ，占热源资源总量的20%-42%。随着高碳能源设施的退役以及建筑热需求的降低，到2060年，空间可匹配资源潜力将减少至3亿-11.1亿GJ，扩大低碳热源利用范围以及增加输热距离上限可以显著提高空间可匹配量。（3）未来北方城镇供暖有望在2050年左右实现近零排放，需要尽可能降低建筑供暖需求、推动热源优化升级，在不考虑跨季节储热的情况下，回收余热的热电联产和各类余热供暖到2060年占比可达到27%。

To promote the decarbonization transformation of northern urban heating is a critical measure for China to achieve carbon neutrality, and the current coal-dominant centralized heating in north China generates large amounts of CO2 emissions. With a view to a carbon-neutral future, northern urban heating must undergo a profound transformation, in which low/zero-carbon centralized heating based on CHP, industrial residual heat and various types of heat pumps are the main technical options. Under the influence of power and industrial transformation, resource endowment and economic and social development in various regions, there is great uncertainty in the available heat sources such as CHP and residual heat, so it is quite difficult to develop a clear pathway for heating decarbonization transformation. Against above background, in this study, the transformation pathway of low-carbon heating is analyzed, a comprehensive analytical model of northern urban heating is constructed, and a research is performed from three perspectives. First, thinking about the technological restrictions of residual heat resources, through focusing on low-carbon heating technologies such as CHP, industrial residual heat, data center residual heat, etc., a bottom-up approach is applied to systematically assess the potential of multi-level heating resources covering procedure-process-industry-region, and the variation trend in the potential of heating resources from 2020 to 2060 is analyzed by combining the carbon-neutral transition characteristics of the electric power and industrial sectors. Second, considering that the CHP is limited to spatial distance, a heating source-load spatial matching model is established, so that the spatial matching between low-carbon heat sources and heating heat demand is explored together with the data of high-resolution plant-level power, industrial point source and single building; their variation trend in the medium- and long-term is described; and the potential of present and future low-carbon heat sources for centralized heating is assessed. Third, the heating energy system is detailed in China’s provincial energy system model; a variety of low-carbon heating technologies and building energy efficiency technologies, such as CHP and industrial residual heat, are depicted; a detailed picture of low-carbon heating resources in north China is provided; and the future mix of technologies, energy consumption, carbon emissions and pollutant emissions of northern urban heating under a carbon-neutral scenario are studied at the provincial level. As can be concluded from the study: (1) By 2020, the potentials of main low-carbon heating resources for the whole year, the whole year in north China and the winter in north China separately were 47 billion, 25.7 billion and 9.5 billion GJ, which greatly exceed the current heating demand in north China, with CHP occupying the largest proportion. With the low-carbon transformation of electricity and industry, the total heating resource potential in the future will be reduced by 10%-39% compared with 2020. (2) From a spatial perspective, by 2020, the spatially matchable resource potentials of CHP and industrial residual heat sources as well as the heat demand of surrounding buildings were distributed within 840 million--2.48 billion GJ, accounting for 20%--42% of the total heat source resources. As the decommissioning of high-carbon energy facilities and the reduction of building heat demand, the spatial matchable resource potential will be reduced to 300 million-1.11 billion GJ by 2060, and the spatial matchable amount can be significantly improved by expanding the utilization scope of low-carbon heat sources and increasing the upper limit of the distance of heat transmission. (3) Northern urban heating is hopeful to realize near-zero emissions in around 2050, which requires reducing the building heating demand as much as possible and promoting the optimization and upgrading of heat sources. Without considering heat storage across seasons, the CHP with recovery of residual heat and various types of residual heat heating can account for 27% by 2060.