近二十多年，高速发展的房地产行业在中国的经济发展中发挥了重要作用，中国房地产行业增加值占GDP比重于2020年达到峰值7.24%。然而，2021年下半年以来，受行业自身发展阶段、疫情、政策调控等多重因素冲击，中国房地产行业景气度下滑明显，供给侧深度出清；中长期维度，基于经济增速放缓、老龄化加速、城市化放缓等，中国房地产行业或处于大周期拐点。过去以高杠杆扩张的经营模式将逐渐退出历史舞台，市场运行逻辑将出现根本性改变，中国房地产公司的竞争格局将转向差异化、重管理的新时代。在这样的背景下，本文选择中国房地产上市公司的估值研究作为研究主题。 本文首先论述了研究背景及意义，再基于企业价值评估方面的文献综述，结合中国房地产上市公司的估值难点，选择了两种估值方法，即公司自由现金流模型(FCFF)和哥伦比亚大学教授Greenwald总结的三要素估值法。然后，本文以华润置地作为案例公司，首先对其进行基本面分析，然后在对中国房地产行业未来走势给予定性判断及定量假设的基础上，运用上述两种估值方法进行估值分析，并对估值过程及估值结果进行小结。最后，本文对两种估值方法的逻辑、过程和结果进行对比分析，得出三要素估值法相对更适用于当前行业处于大周期拐点的中国房地产上市公司估值，同时针对中国房地产上市公司的估值难点，总结本文提出的具有一定创新性和适用性的解决方案，并针对存在的不足提出未来的研究建议。

Over the past two decades, the rapidly developing real estate industry has played an important role in China‘s economic development, with the added value of the real estate industry accounting for 7.24% of GDP at its peak in 2020. However, since the second half of 2021, due to the impact of multiple factors such as development stage of the industry itself, local epidemic outbreak and policy regulation, the prosperity of China‘s real estate industry has declined, and the supply side has been deeply cleared. In the medium and long term, based on the slowdown of economic growth, accelerating aging, and slowing urbanization, China‘s real estate industry maybe at the turning point of a big cycle. The past business model of high leverage expansion will gradually withdraw from the historical stage, and the market operation logic will be fundamentally changed. The competitive pattern of China‘s real estate companies will shift to a new era of differentiation and management. In this context, this paper chooses the valuation research of China‘s listed real estate companies as the research topic. This paper firstly discusses the background and significance of the research. Then, based on the literature review of corporate valuation and the valuation difficulties of listed real estate companies in China, two valuation methods are chosen in this paper, namely the Free Cash Flow for the Firm (FCFF)and the Three-Element Approach to Valuation summarized by Professor Greenwald of Columbia University. Then, this paper takes China Resources Land as a case company, first conducts fundamental analysis on it, and then, on the basis of qualitative judgment and quantitative assumptions on the future trend of China‘s real estate industry, uses the above two valuation methods to conduct valuation analysis, and summarizes the valuation process and results. Finally, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the logic, process and results of the two valuation methods, and concludes that the Three-Element Approach to Valuation is relatively more suitable for the current valuation of listed real estate companies in China. Meanwhile, aiming at the valuation difficulties, the innovative and applicable solutions proposed in this paper are summarized. In view of the existing shortcomings, the future research suggestions are put forward.