白酒废水水量水质波动剧烈，处理难度大，处理成本相对较高。对白酒企业和污水厂实行有效的废水处理和排放管控，优化废水处理系统配置，是当下中国白酒废水污染治理的重点。然而，白酒企业与污水厂存在复杂的非线性交互关系，影响企业的废水处理成本。因此，量化白酒企业与污水厂交互对废水处理的影响，成为白酒企业与污水厂管控的关键。本论文采用随机效用理论与多主体建模方法，刻画了白酒企业与污水厂的微观行为决策和交互关系，模拟了白酒废水产排物质流和企业-污水厂交互过程，构建了基于白酒企业与污水厂交互的废水排放与处理成本模型（simulation of the Impact of iNterplay between baijiu firms and wasTEwater tReatment plant on wAstewater disCharge and treatment cosT，INTERACT）。本研究以贵州省仁怀市作为INTERACT模型参数本地化案例地区，进行了模型收敛性与准确性检验，结合拉丁超立方采样、HSY算法与CvM检验方法进行了区域灵敏性分析。结果显示，污水厂建设成本与回收年数是INTERACT模型的关键参数。本论文设计了四种政策情景：基准（BL）、企业与污水厂议价（FWN）、污水厂利润率限制（WPL）与企业直排管控（FDC）。所有情景模拟结果表明，不同规模酒企主体的行为决策存在明显差异，相较于规模中位数与最大酒企，规模最小酒企的直排成本与间排期望更高。在现有产业发展趋势下，污水厂将在2028年后开始要求废水错峰排放，导致部分酒企停产，增加酒企处理费用与系统处理全成本。不同情景对比结果表明，更宽松的废水处理价格限制会减少酒企间排比例，从而减轻污水厂处理负荷，减少污水厂废水错峰排放与酒企停产现象。然而，若同时执行企业直排管控，该效应则会被抵消。以2030年为例，相较BL情景，在FWN与WPL情景下的污水厂错峰排放期望分别低54%与48%，停产酒企窖池数分别低54%与51%，白酒企业单位废水处理费用分别低27%与25%，系统废水处理全成本分别高4%与3%；在FDC情景下的污水厂错峰排放期望低6%，停产酒企窖池数低4%，白酒企业单位废水处理费用高27%，系统废水处理全成本低16%。因此，在制定白酒企业与污水厂管控政策时，应重点考虑窖池数量增长而导致的污水厂错峰排放与酒企停产情况。
The Baijiu wastewater quantity and quality characterized by significant fluctuations, which complicate treatment processes and elevate treatment costs. Effective wastewater management and discharge control in Baijiu firms and wastewater treatment plant(WWTP), along with the optimization of wastewater treatment system configurations, are critical priorities in the governance of wastewater pollution in this sector. However, complex nonlinear interactions between Baijiu firms and WWTP impact the costs associated with wastewater treatment. Thus, quantifying the effects of these interactions on wastewater treatment has become essential for the management and control practices of both Baijiu firms and WWTP.By utilizing random utility theory (RUT) and agent-based modeling (ABM) approaches, this paper addresse the micro-behavioral decisions and interaction dynamics between Baijiu firms and WWTP, simulates the flow of wastewater production and discharge, and the interaction processes between firms and WWTP. A model named INTERACT (simulation of the Impact of iNterplay between Baijiu firms and wasTEwater tReatment plant on wAstewater disCharge and treatment cosT,INTERACT) has been developed. This paper takes Renhuai City in Guizhou Province as a case study area, localizing INTERACT model parameters and verifying model convergence and accuracy. A regional sensitivity analysis employing Latin Hypercube Sampling, the HSY algorithm, and the CvM test was conducted. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the construction cost and recovery period of WWTP are key parameters in the INTERACT model.The paper proposes four policy scenarios: Baseline (BL), Negotiation between Firms and WWTP (FWN), Profit Margin Limitation for WWTP (WPL), and Direct Discharge Control for Firms (FDC). All simulation results indicate that there are significant differences in decision-making behaviors among Baijiu firms of varying sizes. Specifically, the smallest firms experience higher direct discharge costs and indirect discharge expectations compared to medium-sized and largest firms. Under current industrial development trends, WWTP will begin to require wastewater cross-peak discharge after 2028, leading to production halts for some Baijiu firms and increased treatment expenses as well as the total cost of system treatment. Scenario comparisons reveal that more flexible wastewater treatment price restrictions reduce the proportion of indirect discharges among firms, thereby alleviating the WWTP‘s treatment burden, and decreasing both the wastewater cross-peak discharge and the production halts of Baijiu firms. However, if direct discharge control measures for firms are implemented concurrently, this effect is negated. For instance, by 2030, compared to the baseline (BL) scenario, the expectations for wastewater cross-peak discharge in WWTP under the FWN and WPL scenarios are lower by 54% and 48% respectively, the number of halted production pits are reduced by 54% and 51% respectively, the unit wastewater treatment costs for Baijiu firms are decreased by 27% and 25% respectively, and the total cost of wastewater treatment in the system is higher by 4% and 3% respectively. In contrast, under the FDC scenario, the expected wastewater cross-peak discharge in WWTP is 6% lower, the number of halted production pits is 4% lower, the unit wastewater treatment cost for Baijiu firms is 27% higher, and the total system wastewater treatment cost is 16% lower. Therefore, when formulating control policies for Baijiu firms and WWTP, it is crucial to consider the impact of an increase in fermantation pit numbers on wastewater cross-peak discharge and the production halts of Baijiu firms.
