本文深入探讨了中国数字藏品市场的发展，提供了数字藏品平台的大量一手资料，并定性和定量地探究了影响市场发展的关键因素，具有一定的创新性。本文首先对资本定价相关理论、商业模式理论等进行文献综述，为后续实证研究和案例研究做好铺垫。本文回顾了全球NFT市场和中国数字藏品市场的发展历程，梳理了市场格局和消费者心智，并对腾讯幻核这一典型案例进行了深入分析；本文定性地总结出了是否开放二级市场与是否出台监管政策这两个中国数字藏品发展的关键因素，揭示了数字藏品市场在中国的发展现状和挑战。其中，本文作者在研究过程中深入企业一线，参与了腾讯幻核平台从成立到关停的主要过程，搜集了众多一手资料。本文接着通过实证研究方法定量探究这两个因素。对于二级市场这一因素，本文发现尽管海外二级市场独立于中国，但其对A股相关公司股价仍有显著影响；本文发现海外市场的总市值、每日成交量、交易用户数、蓝筹指数均对中国数字藏品相关股票有显著的正相关性，即海外市场更繁荣时，中国相关股票的表现也越好；本文通过平稳性检验，决定采用变量的一阶差分进行回归；本文通过引入滞后项，排除了自回归的干扰。具体而言，海外NFT市场总市值每增加1亿美元，A股市场的相关指数就增长4.7个点；当日成交量每增加1亿美元，相关指数增长36个点；当日交易人数每增加1000人，相关指数增长1个点。对于监管政策这一因素，本文围绕监管政策发布进行事件研究，并通过横截面回归发现相关股票的异常回报率与其对数字藏品概念曝光程度之间的关系。本文选取某一负面政策发布为事件进行研究，发现当过去一段时间内公司与数字藏品有关的新闻占该公司总新闻的比例每提高1%，在事件窗口内累计异常收益率的绝对值就会提高0.63%。同时，通过虚拟变量回归，研究发现在事件窗口内，数字藏品相关公司的累计异常收益率的绝对值较非相关公司增加了24%。这些研究成果表明上市公司“蹭热点”的行为的确可能对股价产生影响。数字藏品作为新兴资产，受到投资者和政策制定者的关注，本文希望弥补这一方向研究的空白，为未来的投资决策和政策制定提供参考。
This paper provides an in-depth exploration of the development of China‘s digital collectibles market, offering a wealth of primary data from relative platforms and qualita-tively and quantitatively examining the key factors influencing market development.Firstly, this paper reviews literature on capital pricing theories, business model theo-ries, and other relevant concepts, laying the groundwork for subsequent empirical and case studies. Through an examination of the global NFT market and the development tra-jectory of China‘s digital collectibles market, alongside a detailed analysis of the Tencent Huanhe platform, the study qualitatively identifies two key factors for the development of China‘s digital collectibles market: the openness of the secondary market and the imple-mentation of regulatory policies. The author participated directly in the main processes of the Huanhe platform from its inception to its shutdown, collecting numerous firsthand data. Following this, the paper quantitatively investigates these two factors using empirical research methods. Regarding the secondary market, it is found that although the overseas secondary market operates independently of China, it still significantly influences the stock prices of related companies on the A-share market. The study finds a significant positive correlation between the overall market value, daily trading volume, number of trading users, and blue-chip index of the overseas NFT market and the performance of Chinese stocks related to digital collectibles. For the factor of regulatory policies, this pa-per conducts an event study centered around regulatory policy releases and finds the rela-tionship between the abnormal returns of the relevant stocks and their exposure to digital collectibles news through cross-sectional regressions. As an emerging asset, digital collections have received attention from investors and policy makers, and this paper hopes to fill the gap in research in this direction and provide a reference for future investment decisions and policy making.
