近年以来，我国商业银行净息差管理面临日益严峻的挑战，一方面是受到利率市场化改革的影响，政策利率放松管制引起同业竞争逐渐加剧；一方面是经济增速放缓，实体经济信贷需求回落使得银行生息资产收益有所减少。此外，随着监管引导银行业回归本源，银行普遍更加依赖息差收入来推动营收增长，净息差收窄对银行经营的影响愈发显著，并已成为近年来银行面临的最主要挑战。在当前形势下，对银行净息差开展深入研究是十分紧迫且必要的：利率市场化对银行的盈利水平带来怎样的影响、影响的程度如何？不同类型的银行受到的影响是否一致？如果不一致，具体差异及主要成因是什么？银行又应当抓住哪些关键时点、采取哪些举措来应对净息差收窄的压力呢？通过探讨这一课题，一方面有助于学者和从业者更全面地理解改革的意图和动机，一方面有助于银行选择最适合的发展方向和策略，以有效应对外部环境带来的挑战。同时，对于建立适应新形势下的银行监管机制也具有一定的启示作用。本研究方案的整体框架可概括如下：1. 全面梳理国内外学者在利率市场化改革领域的相关文献，对我国改革的重要时间节点和里程碑事件进行系统归纳；2. 建立一个综合指标体系，对利率市场化程度按照时间演进来做量化；3. 从宏观经济、银行业以及银行个体三个层面针对银行的净息差的影响因素展开分析，从利率市场化程度、M2、市场集中度、银行规模、风险偏好、管理效率等维度选取对净息差产生影响的变量；4. 收集42家上市商业银行在2005-2023年期间的相关数据，建立动态面板模型进行多元回归分析，对利率市场化改革与净息差影响进行实证研究，并将全部样本按照属性分组回归，明确不同组别银行受利率市场化改革影响程度的差异性；5. 选取某股份制银行进行分析，并根据研究和分析的结论提出具有差异化的、银行应对净息差挑战的政策建议。本文主要结论为：中国商业银行的净息差和利率市场化的关系总体呈倒U型，这表明随着利率市场化改革程度的深化，银行净息差呈现先走高后降低的趋势。按组别看，股份制商业银行受到改革的影响最大，其次是国有商业银行，而对城市和农村商业银行的影响则不明显。针对该结论，对银行提出政策建议：1. 减少对利息收入的依赖，推进中间业务发展；2. 强化定价管理，降低信用风险；3. 优化资负结构，提高利率风险管理能力；4. 因地制宜，注重差异化发展。
In recent years, the management of net interest margin (NIM) in Chinese commercial banks has faced increasingly severe challenges. On one hand, the relaxation of policy rates control due to interest rate liberalization reform has intensified interbank competition. On the other hand, the slowdown in economic growth has led to a decrease in the demand for credit in the real economy, resulting in a reduction in interest income from bank assets. Additionally, with regulatory guidance prompting banks to return to their core functions, banks are increasingly relying on NIM income to drive revenue growth. The narrowing of NIM has had a significant impact on bank operations and has become the primary challenge faced by banks in recent years.Given the current situation, conducting in-depth research on bank NIM is both urgent and necessary. What effect does interest rate liberalization have on banks‘ profitability, and to what degree? These are the queries that must be answered. Are different types of banks affected consistently? If not, what are the specific differences and main causes? At what key points should banks take action to address the pressure of narrowing NIM, and what measures should they adopt? Exploring these issues will not only help scholars and practitioners better understand the intent and motivation behind the reform but also assist banks in choosing the most suitable development direction and strategy to effectively cope with the challenges of the external environment. Furthermore, it may provide insights for establishing a regulatory mechanism for banks that is adaptable to the new situation.The overall framework of this research proposal can be summarized as follows: 1. Comprehensive review of the research efforts made by scholars in the field of interest rate liberalization reform and systematic summarization of the important time nodes and milestone events of interest rate liberalization reform in China; 2. Quantification of the degree of interest rate liberalization over time through the construction of a comprehensive index system; 3. Analysis of the factors affecting bank NIM from the macroeconomic, banking industry, and individual bank levels, selecting variables that affect NIM from dimensions such as the degree of interest rate liberalization, M2, market concentration, bank size, risk preference, and management efficiency; 4. Collection of relevant data from 42 listed commercial banks during the period from 2005 to 2023, establishment of a dynamic panel model for empirical research and analysis on the impact of interest rate liberalization reform on NIM, and grouping regression analysis of all samples according to attributes to clarify the differences in the degree of impact of interest rate liberalization reform on different groups of banks; 5. Selection of a certain joint-stock commercial bank for analysis, and formulation of differentiated policy recommendations for banks to cope with the challenge of narrowing NIM based on research and analysis conclusions.The principal finding of this research indicates the influences of interest rate liberalization changes on NIM in Chinese commercial banks can be represented by a curve that is shaped like an upside-down U, which suggests that as the degree of interest rate liberalization deepens, the NIM of banks initially increases and then shows a decreasing trend. When viewed by group, joint-stock commercial banks are most affected by the reform, followed by state-owned commercial banks, while the impact on urban and rural commercial banks is not significant. Based on this conclusion, policy recommendations for banks are proposed: 1. Reduce reliance on interest income and promote the development of intermediary business; 2. Strengthen pricing management to mitigate credit risk; 3. Optimize asset-liability structure to enhance interest rate risk management capabilities; 4. Adopt tailored approaches based on local conditions and emphasize differentiated development strategies.
