随着能源安全、环境污染、气候变化等问题愈发突出，改善能源结构、大力发展新能源已经成为许多国家的必要措施。然而，在风能与太阳能迅速发展过程中也暴露出了许多问题，如弃电率高、随机性与波动性大等。在这种情况下，水电、储能与新能源组成的水风光蓄多能互补系统能够增强电网的稳定性，成为新能源发展与建设的重要举措之一。本文聚焦在雅鲁藏布江中游的水风光资源多能互补开发利用，并基于雅江中游地区的街需水电站和永木抽水蓄能电站研究了水-风-光-蓄多能互补系统的容量配置和优化运行。为了精细化地评估雅鲁藏布江中游的风光资源总量以及风光电场的具体选址，以高精度的风光资源数据为核心要素，综合考虑地理条件与土地利用情况，初步筛选出了可以建设风光电场的区域。其次，通过层次聚类的方法对初步筛选出的区域进行聚类，划分出单独的风电场与光电场。进一步增强每一个电场的集中度，最终得到风光电场的选址，评估得出雅鲁藏布江中游地区风电资源开发潜力为2350万kW，光电资源开发潜力为2.38亿kW。在风光电场具体选址的基础上，以TPMFD数据集提供的高精度长序列风速、向下短波辐射、温度等数据为基础，通过风光的出力转化模型模拟得出过去40年的风光出力过程。从日内出力与年内出力的角度分别分析了风电与光伏的出力特性，并分析了风光在日内与日间的出力波动特点，结果表明风电在日内的波动性小于光伏，但光伏的日间波动性更小。在不同时间尺度上分析了不同的风电场间、光电场间以及风光电场间的出力互补特性，年尺度上的互补性明显好于其他时间尺度，其他时间尺度也能分析出互补性相对更好的几个电场。以系统的发电量最大为目标，考虑电力供应与需求平衡、设备运行、能量平衡、装机容量等约束，建立了水风光蓄多能互补优化运行模型。基于雅鲁藏布江中游地区的街需水电站和永木抽水蓄能电站，分析与之配套的风光电场容量配置与优化运行。在新能源弃电率小于10%的条件下，提出四种水风光蓄的容量配置方案。接着构建了标准化可再生能源出力指数SREPI，并识别各能源类型的能源干旱典型年，分析了在各种干旱场景下的发电量变化，结果显示，不同的能源干旱场景下，多能互补系统的发电量有不同程度的下降，但建设一定的风电以及考虑需求侧的灵活性调节能够在一定程度上抵抗能源干旱。
As issues such as energy security, environmental pollution, and climate change becoming increasingly prominent, improving energy structure and vigorously developing new energy sources has become a necessary measure for most countries. However, in the rapid development of wind and solar energy, many problems have also emerged, such as high abandonment rates and significant randomness and volatility, have also emerged. In this context, the water-wind-light-storage multi-energy complementary system composed of hydropower, energy storage, and new energy has the potential to enhance power grid stability and has become one of the important initiatives for new energy development and construction. This paper focuses on the evaluation of wind and solar resources in the middle Yarlung Zangbo River basin and conducts capacity configuration and optimization research on the water-wind-light-storage multi-energy complementary system based on the Jiexu Hydropower Station and Yongmu Pumped Storage Power Station in the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River.To finely assess the total wind and solar resources in the middle Yarlung Zangbo River basin and the specific site selection of wind and solar farms, high-precision wind and solar resource data are used as the core elements, taking into account geographical conditions and land use. The areas suitable for building wind and solar farms are preliminarily screened. Secondly, the areas preliminarily selected are clustered through hierarchical clustering to separate wind farms and solar farms. Further enhancing the concentration of each power station, the site selection of wind and solar farms is determined. It is estimated that the development potential of wind resources in the middle Yarlung Zangbo River basin are 23.5 million kW, and the development potential of solar resources are 238 million kW.Based on the specific site selection of wind and solar farms, using high-precision long sequence wind speed, downward shortwave radiation, temperature, and other data provided by the TPMFD dataset, the output conversion models of wind and solar energy are used to estimate the wind and solar energy output processes from 1979 to 2018. The output characteristics of wind power and photovoltaic power are analyzed from the perspectives of daily and annual outputs, and the fluctuation characteristics of wind and solar output in intra-day and inter-day are analyzed. The results show that the fluctuation of wind power in intra-day is smaller than that of photovoltaic power, but the fluctuation of photovoltaic in inter-day is smaller. The complementary characteristics of output between different wind farms, between different solar farms, and between wind and solar farms are analyzed at different time scales, with annual scale complementarity being better than other time scales, and several power stations with relatively better complementarity can be analyzed at other time scales as well.With the goal of maximizing system power generation, considering constraints such as the power balance between supply and demand, equipment operation, energy balance, and installed capacity, a water-wind-light-storage multi-energy complementary optimization operation model is established. Based on the Jiexu Hydropower Station and Yongmu Pumped Storage Power Station in the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the capacity configuration and optimization operation of wind and solar farms are analyzed. Under the condition of new energy abandonment rate less than 10%, four capacity configuration schemes for water-wind-light-storage are proposed. Then, the standardized renewable energy product index SREPI is constructed, and typical years of energy drought for each energy type are identified. The changes of power generation under various drought scenarios are analyzed. The results show that the power generation of multi-energy complementary systems decreases to varying degrees under different energy drought scenarios, but the construction of certain wind power and the flexibility adjustment considering the demand side can resist energy drought to a certain extent.
