近年来，全球营商大环境充满了种种不确定性，这种不确定性通过COVID-19新冠疫情和武装冲突等地缘政治事件得到了放大。这导致大家将更多注意力聚焦于分析地缘政治风险及其对宏观和微观经济的影响，使得从商人员和企业高管更加重视理解地缘政治格局及其对公司战略决策和发展的影响。本文针对地缘政治风险如何影响中国企业收购行为展开了研究。首先，本文旨在确定中国语境下地缘政治风险对上市企业收购行为影响的方向：若为正面影响，将贴切研究西方企业行为的文献。若为负面影响，将证明中国企业在地缘政治风险提升的经营环境中的逆向行为。其次，本文探讨实物期权理论在中国语境下作为地缘政治风险影响收购行为的背后机制的可能性，通过其对公司财务约束的放大作用来验证。为了回答如上所述的问题，本文采用了多种实证分析方法来研究2003年至2022年中国上市公司的收购行为。本文使用基于新闻语境分析的中国地区地缘政治风险指数作为主要解释变量，该指数来源于Caldara和Iacoviello维护的网站，以及来自CSMAR数据库的中国上市公司收购数据和财务数据。研究发现地缘政治风险对中国企业进行收购的概率有显著的负面影响，与西方一致。此外，实证结果表明，实物期权理论加剧了公司的财务约束，从而在地缘政治风险提升时减少了公司的收购行为。最后，研究结果表明地缘政治风险的负面影响大约持续三年。从管理角度来看，本文研究结果有如下启示和意义。首先，理解地缘政治风险对收购决策的影响可以通知战略决策过程。比如，在地缘政治风险上升期间，竞标方可以根据其财务约束状态评估自身相比于其他竞标方的竞争力和谈判能力。其次，理解地缘政治风险对收购的负面影响可以促进有效的风险管理策略、资源配置和财务规划。此外，亦可以指导供应链管理策略，协助企业在合适的情境下主动探索收购机会以降低供应链相关的风险。最后，可以为政府决策提供一定启示，如为了协助中国企业在地缘政治风险上升期间更顺利的完成收购，应将核心放置于减轻中国企业的财务约束，通过提供更划算的融资渠道或政府补贴来实现。
In recent years, global affairs and business landscapes have increasingly been characterized by uncertainty, amplified by events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and militarized conflicts. This heightened attention on analyzing geopolitical risks and their effects on economies, both macro- and micro-level, underscores the critical importance for business owners and managers to understand the geopolitical landscape and its implications for their firms‘ strategic direction and operations.This paper addresses two key questions regarding the impact of geopolitical risk on acquisition likelihood in China and the applicability of real options theory in this context. Firstly, it aims to determine whether the effect of geopolitical risk on acquisition likelihood is negative, as commonly observed in Western literature, or positive, as suggested by certain studies highlighting contrarian behavior of Chinese firms, especially in environments of heightened uncertainty. Secondly, it investigates the role of real options theory in moderating this effect, particularly through its exacerbation of firms‘ financial constraints.To address these questions, the paper employs multiple empirical analysis methodologies to study the acquisition behavior of Chinese listed firms from 2003 to 2022. It utilizes a news-based geopolitical risk index specific to China as the main explanatory variable, sourced from Caldara and Iacoviello‘s maintained website, along with acquisition and firm-level financial data from the CSMAR database.The findings reveal a significant negative effect of geopolitical risk on the likelihood of firms conducting acquisitions in China, aligning with predominant Western literature. Additionally, empirical evidence suggests that real options theory exacerbates firms‘ financial constraints, thereby reducing acquisition activity under heightened geopolitical risks. Lastly, the negative effect of geopolitical risk lasts about three years. From a managerial perspective, these findings offer several implications. Firstly, understanding the impact of geopolitical risk on acquisition decisions can inform strategic decision-making processes, enabling assessment of a bidder‘s competitiveness and negotiation power based on their financial constraint status during heightened geopolitical risks. Secondly, recognizing the negative effect of geopolitical risk on acquisition likelihood can facilitate the development of effective risk management strategies, resource allocation, and financial planning. Moreover, insights into the interplay between geopolitical risk and acquisition decisions can guide supply chain management strategies, helping proactively explore acquisition opportunities to secure critical raw materials and mitigate supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions. Lastly, the findings can inform governmental policies aimed at enhancing Chinese firms‘ competitiveness in conducting acquisitions, suggesting measures to alleviate financial constraints during periods of heightened geopolitical risks, such as offering cheaper financing options or government subsidies.
