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论消费券对GDP的促进作用—基于中国城市的实证研究

The Promoting Effect of Consumption Vouchers on GDP: An Empirical Research Based on Chinese Cities

作者:熊佳妮
  • 学号
    2021******
  • 学位
    硕士
  • 电子邮箱
    583******com
  • 答辩日期
    2024.05.19
  • 导师
    田轩
  • 学科名
    工商管理
  • 页码
    61
  • 保密级别
    公开
  • 培养单位
    060 金融学院
  • 中文关键词
    消费券;影响因素;回归模型
  • 英文关键词
    Consumption vouchers; influencing factors; regression model

摘要

新冠疫情期间,全球经济受到严重冲击。为促进消费,提振经济,我国推行了一系列经济刺激措施,其中最受关注的政策之一就是消费券的发放。作为短期政策工具,消费券对经济的促进效果一直存有争议。在此背景下,本文通过对消费券和其他消费刺激政策进行比较,论证了在我国发放消费券的必要性,并对消费券在全国不同城市和区域的经济提振作用进行了定量分析,希望可以对相关研究领域进行补充。本文首先对消费券政策的历史沿革进行回顾,对疫情下世界各地现金补贴及消费券发放案例进行梳理,分析财政补贴对居民消费的影响以及目前我国发行消费券的特征及缺陷。研究发现,消费券具有出资灵活、时效性强、投放精准等特点。针对我国消费习惯,消费券相较于现金补贴是更适合的刺激政策。然而消费券也存在自身的局限性,在实际操作过程中需要政府部门重视优化发放机制和适用领域选择,提高公平性和适用性。其次,本文选取2020-2022年期间在我国280个地级市发行的消费券数据为研究对象,通过建立城市经济发展水平与是否发放消费券之间的回归方程以讨论消费券发放对地区经济发展的影响效果。结果显示,相比于未发放消费券的地区,发放消费券的地区经济发展水平更高。除此之外,本文还基于不同经济地带以及不同等级城市展开异质性讨论,结论是消费券对经济的促进效果在我国东部地区和西部地区城市效果明显;同时相较于三线或以下城市,消费券的促进效果在一线、新一线及二线城市会更为显著。最后,在研究结果的基础上,本文对后续消费券的发放工作提出三点建议:一是利用有限的财政资金,将消费券合理投放于对经济刺激效果显著的领域;二是运用数据分析,精确定位消费者群体,提升消费券和市民特性的匹配度;三是扩大消费券的使用范围,激发消费者的购买欲望。希望这些建议能够在未来制定经济刺激政策时提供一定的指导意义,确保消费券的有效发放和使用,实现经济的快速恢复和增长。

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has suffered severe impacts. To promote consumption and revive the economy, various economic stimulus measures have been implemented in China, among which the distribution of consumer vouchers has gained significant attention. As a short-term policy instrument, the effectiveness of consumer vouchers in stimulating the economy remains a subject of debate. Against this background, this study aims to provide a supplementary analysis within the relevant research field by comparing consumption vouchers with other consumption stimulus policies. Furthermore, this study quantitatively analyzes the economic revitalization effects of consumer vouchers in different cities and regions across the country.Firstly, this paper offers an overview of the development of consumption voucher policies and examines cash subsidy and consumption voucher distribution cases in different parts of the world during the pandemic. It analyzes the influence of fiscal subsidies on consumer spending and identifies the characteristics and limitations of the current consumption voucher policies in China. The findings suggest that consumption vouchers possess advantages such as flexible allocation, strong timeliness, and precise targeting. Considering the consumption habits in China, consumption vouchers are deemed more suitable compared to cash subsidies. However, it is acknowledged that consumption vouchers also have inherent limitations, necessitating the attention of government authorities to optimize the distribution mechanism, select appropriate sectors, and enhance fairness and applicability.Furthermore, this paper focuses on analyzing the data of consumption vouchers distributed in 280 cities in China between 2020 and 2022. A regression model is constructed to explore the impact of consumption voucher distribution on regional economic development. The results indicate that regions where consumption vouchers are distributed exhibit higher levels of economic development compared to those without such distribution. Additionally, the paper conducts heterogeneity analysis based on different tiers of cities, and concludes that the promotional effect of consumption vouchers is particularly pronounced in cities located in the eastern and western regions. Moreover, compared to third-tier or lower-tier cities, consumption vouchers have a more significant impact on stimulating consumption in first-tier, new first-tier, and second-tier cities.Finally, based on the research findings, this paper provides three suggestions for future policies on the distribution of consumption vouchers: firstly, strategically allocate limited fiscal resources to sectors that demonstrate a significant economic stimulus effect; secondly, apply data analysis techniques to accurately identify target consumer groups, thereby enhancing the compatibility between consumption vouchers and citizens‘ characteristics; and thirdly, expand the scope of consumption voucher usage to stimulate consumer purchasing desires.It is hoped that these suggestions can offer valuable guidance for formulating future economic stimulus policies, ensuring the effective distribution and utilization of consumption vouchers, and facilitating rapid recovery and growth of the economy.