随着城市化进程的推进，国有土地使用权出让金成为我国地方政府的重要收入来源之一，导致地方政府形成依赖土地财政的经济增长模式。在经济转型升级的大背景下，土地财政依赖关系带来的潜在风险开始逐渐显现，引发了社会各界的广泛关注。然而，有关土地财政依赖的衡量指标和方法等众说纷纭。明确土地财政依赖度的概念内涵及其计算方式，并据此统计分析各地的土地财政依赖度状况、研究土地财政依赖度与财政收支、地区经济之间的关系具有重要的意义。本文从土地财政的形成过程出发，以土地财政的定义、理论和计算方法为基础，建立了适用于不同层级数据的土地财政依赖度测度体系。利用这一体系，本文从时间和空间两个维度对2009年-2022年全国及9个省级、50个市级样本的土地财政和土地财政依赖度现状进行了统计分析，进而分别对土地财政依赖度与地方政府财政支出结构、地区经济发展、区域房地产价格之间的关系开展实证研究。本文的主要研究结论如下：（1）我国南方省份和城市的土地财政依赖度普遍高于北方；（2）随着土地财政依赖度的增加，地方政府在基础设施建设上的支出倾向增强，而在公共服务上的投入比例下降；在经济发达地区，土地财政依赖度的提升会促使地方政府增加对产业支持的支出，而在经济欠发达地区则表现出相反的趋势；（3）提高土地财政依赖度会对两年后的地区经济增长产生滞后且负面的影响；（4）土地财政依赖度增加会推动区域房地产价格上涨，其中土地财政依赖度每上升1%，房地产价格大约会增长0.4%。基于上述研究结论，本文建议：（1）需特别关注南方城市是否存在土地过度开发的问题；（2）土地财政收入水平高企时，地方政府可适当从中投入更多的资金用于公共服务；中央政府应加大对经济较落后地区在产业支持方面的专项转移支付，减少对土地财政的过分依赖；（3）根据地区经济发展水平，适时调整地方政府在土地相关收入方面的财政依赖；（4）在制定房地产价格调控政策时，应考虑各地方政府对土地财政的依赖程度，实施差异化的调控措施。
With the development of urbanization, the transfer revenue of land use rights has become one of the important sources of income for local governments, which led to the formation of an economic growth model dependent on land finance with potential risks However, there are different opinions on the measurement indicators of land finance dependence. It is of great significance to define the land finance dependence degree, analyze the status, and study the relationship between land financial dependence degree and fiscal expenditure and regional economy.Based on the connotation, this thesis established the measurement system of land finance dependence, made a statistical analysis of the current situation of land finance and land finance dependence in the country, 9 provincial and 50 municipal samples from 2011 to 2021 from two dimensions of time and space, and then carried out empirical research on the relationship between land finance dependence and local government financial expenditure structure, regional economic growth, and housing price respectively.The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Land finance dependence is higher in southern cities than the north. (2) With higher dependence, local govts spend more on infrastructure, less on public services. In developed areas, higher dependence prompts more industrial support spending, while in underdeveloped areas, the trend is reversed. (3) Rising land finance dependence negatively impacts regional growth two years later. (4) A 1% increase in land finance dependence boosts real estate prices by nearly 0.4%.Based on the conclusions, suggestions are as follows: (1) Monitoring land overdevelopment in southern cities. (2) More spending on public services with higher land finance dependence; central government should support underdeveloped areas in industry support. (3) Adjusting land-related revenue dependence based on regional economy. (4) Tailoring real estate price policies based on land finance dependence.
