目前收缩城市成为全球的常态化现象，国内收缩城市数量也不断增多。同时，中国东北出现区域性收缩趋势，收缩面积扩大、强度增大、时长增长，人口收缩与用地扩张之间的矛盾也日益加重，既有增长主义规划难以应对此趋势。 基于此，研究以辽宁省铁岭市为研究对象，构建“定义特征-成因机制-规划策略”的研究框架：（1）定义特征：“如何界定收缩城市？”本文基于文献梳理构建多维度长时段的收缩界定方法，从行政城市和实体城市两个视角识别收缩城市，从人口、经济及空间三个方面描绘铁岭市的收缩特征。（2）成因机制：“铁岭市为何收缩？”本文通过提取铁岭市萌芽至今的发展历程中支撑城市兴起的因素，为收缩成因的剖析提供线索。定性与定量结合的方式归纳铁岭市收缩现象的多维度影响因素与主导因子。（3）规划策略：“如何应对铁岭市的收缩情境？”本文以经济产业转型为前提，从市域与市区两个空间尺度探讨规划应对方法。多情景模拟不同收缩转型路径下铁岭市城市空间发展方案，比较选定合适的转型方案，为应对城市收缩问题提供了支持。 研究结果表明，铁岭市属于轻度收缩城市，具有人口绝对收缩、经济相对收缩、空间面临收缩压力的特征。铁岭市依托自然资源禀赋与政策指令兴起，在外部环境变化下由多维度因素共同导致收缩。铁岭市的收缩是以产业为主导的内部推力和区域虹吸拉力共同作用下的趋势，多维度因素包括自然环境、经济产业、思维文化、社会人口、城市建设、区位因素等。基于以上结论，本文将收缩视为铁岭市发展转型的契机，提出发挥优势产业、优化整合现有产业的“1+3+X”产业转型方案，市域尺度下城区适度发展、镇区精明收缩、乡村有效合并；中心城区尺度下新城与工业园区适度发展、老城精明收缩，形成“一主一副一区”的空间格局是铁岭市未来发展策略的首选。通过市域尺度下重构多级城镇体系、合理引导人口集聚，中心城区尺度下老城网络式紧凑发展、闲置用地绿化与精简提质设施，乡镇尺度下镇精明收缩、村特色化发展并制定乡村农业发展与空间分布指引等规划策略应对收缩现象。本研究丰富了对于收缩城市的收缩特征与成因分析，补充完善收缩转型语境下的规划研究案例，以期未来对其他相似城市提供启发。
Shrinking cities have become a normal phenomenon in the world, and the number of shrinking cities in China is also increasing. At the same time, there is a trend of regional contraction in northeast China, with the expansion of the contraction area, the increase of intensity and the increase of duration, and the contradiction between population contraction and land expansion is also increasing, which is difficult for the existing growth-oriented planning to cope with this trend.Based on this, the research takes Tieling City of Liaoning Province as the research object, and constructs the research framework of "defining feature-genetic mechanism-planning strategy" : (1) Defining features: "How to define shrinking cities?" Based on literature review, this paper constructs a multi-dimensional and long-term contraction definition method to describe the contraction characteristics of Tieling City from three aspects: population, economy and space. (2) Cause mechanism: "Why did Tieling City shrink?" In this paper, factors supporting the rise of Tieling city in the development process from the bud to the present are extracted to provide clues for the analysis of the causes of contraction. By combining qualitative and quantitative methods, the multi-dimensional influencing factors and leading factors of shrinkage phenomenon in Tieling City are summarized. (3) Planning strategy: "How to deal with the contraction situation of Tieling City?" Taking large-scale agriculture as the premise of development, this paper simulates the urban spatial development plans of Tieling City under different shrinking transformation paths in multiple scenarios, and compares and selects suitable transformation plans. From the two spatial scales of urban area and urban area, this paper discusses the planning coping methods, which provides support for coping with urban shrinkage.The results show that Tieling is a mildly shrinking city, with the characteristics of absolute population contraction, relative economic contraction and space contraction pressure. Tieling City rose on the basis of natural resource endowment and policy directives, and contracted due to multi-dimensional factors under the change of external environment. The contraction of Tieling City is a trend under the joint action of internal push led by industry and regional siphon pull. Multi-dimensional factors include natural environment, economic industry, thinking and culture, social population, urban construction and location factors. Based on the above conclusions, this paper considers the contraction as an opportunity for the development and transformation of Tieling City, and proposes a "1+3+X" industrial transformation plan that gives play to the dominant industries and optimizes and integrates the existing industries. Under the scale of central urban area, the new city and industrial park develop moderately, and the old city shrink shrewly, forming a spatial pattern of "one main, one sub-district" is the first choice of Tieling City‘s future development strategy. Planning strategies such as reconstructing multilevel urban system at the city scale, rationally guiding population agglomeration, compact network development of old cities at the central urban scale, greening of idle land and streamlining and improving facilities, smart shrinkage of towns and characteristic development of villages at the township scale, and formulating guidelines for rural agricultural development and spatial distribution are adopted to deal with the shrinkage phenomenon. This study has enriched the analysis of shrinking characteristics and causes of shrinking cities, and supplemented and improved the planning research cases in the context of shrinking transition, with a view to providing inspiration for other similar cities in the future.
