近年来,中国房地产行业的迅猛发展显著推动了GDP的快速增长,然而,持续上升的房价和银行融资政策的限制,导致了房地产行业融资困难和融资结构的单一化,也成为了行业健康发展的主要障碍。在此背景下,房地产投资信托基金(REITs)作为一种资产证券化手段,为房地产业的资金流动提供了有力支持,增强了相关项目的可交易性和流动性。然而,中国的REITs尚处于发展初期,面临着基金规模小、法规滞后和管理混乱等问题。鉴于目前中国的宏观经济政策和REITs在中国市场的发展遇到的挑战,本文从宏观、行业和市场三个角度研究了影响REITs收益率的经济因素,这一系列研究对于推动我国REITs市场运行规则的发展、完善相关法律及金融服务体系,以及精细相关资本市场监管具有关键意义。 本文首先应用Fama-French三因子和五因子模型检验REITs是否能在市场上获得超额收益。结果表明,在Fama-French多因子模型的框架下,中国大陆的REITs可以实现超额回报,这一点也未进一步的研究REITs收益率的影响因素提供了实证基础。本文接着在宏观经济、行业特性、以及市场环境三个维度上综合考察了影响REITs收益率的关键因素。考虑到国内公募REITs仍然处于发展的初级阶段,数据存量较少,所以本研究综合使用了大陆和香港市场上市的房地产投资信托基金的数据,以期获得更加全面和深入的分析视角。具体来说,本文基于VAR模型对影响REITs收益率的因素及其作用机制进行了深入分析。研究结果表明,GDP、无风险利率、CPI、商业房产市场的价格变动率,以及股票市场的总体走势,都对REITs的收益率产生了显著影响。尤其是从长期视角来看,房地产行业相关因素对REITs的收益率影响最为显著,突显了行业特定动态对REITs投资收益的重要影响。此外,虽然香港市场和大陆市场成熟度的不同,香港和大陆市场市场类影响因素对REITs收益率的影响呈现出相同的特点。 在文章最后,本文还根据理论分析和实证分析的结果,提出了若干建议,旨在通过完善市场运作机制、改进法律制度框架、以及加强专业人才队伍建设等多方面措施。考虑到中国REITs发展的现状及其收益分析,本文认为,无论是从市场层面还是政策预期方面来看,中国REITs在理论和实践上均展现出较强的可行性和发展潜力。然而,当前阶段的REITs收益率仍较低,因此有必要从配套政策、税收优惠体系、人才培养等多方面进行优化和支持。
In recent years, the rapid development of China‘s real estate industry has significantly contributed to the swift growth of GDP. However, continuously rising housing prices and restrictions on banking financing policies have led to difficulties in financing and a homogenization of financing structures in the real estate industry, becoming major obstacles to its healthy development. Against this backdrop, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), as a means of asset securitization, provide strong support for the liquidity of the real estate sector, enhancing the tradability and liquidity of related projects. However, China‘s REITs are still in the early stages of development, facing challenges such as small fund size, outdated regulations, and management disorder. Given the current macroeconomic policies and challenges encountered in the development of REITs in the Chinese market, this paper studies the economic factors affecting REITs‘ yield rates from macro, industry, and market perspectives. This series of studies is crucial for promoting the development of operating rules in China‘s REITs market, improving the relevant legal and financial service system, and refining the supervision of the capital market. This paper first applies the Fama-French three-factor and five-factor models to test whether REITs can achieve excess returns in the market. The results show that under the framework of the Fama-French multi-factor model, REITs in mainland China can achieve excess returns, providing an empirical basis for further research into the factors affecting REITs‘ yield rates. The paper then comprehensively examines the key factors affecting REITs‘ yield rates from three dimensions: macroeconomics, industry characteristics, and market environment. Considering the early stage of development of public REITs in China and the limited data available, this study synthesizes data from REITs listed in both mainland and Hong Kong markets to gain a more comprehensive and in-depth analysis perspective. Specifically, the paper conducts a detailed analysis of the factors affecting REITs‘ yield rates and their mechanisms of action based on the VAR model. The research findings indicate that GDP, risk-free interest rates, CPI, the rate of price change in the commercial property market, and the overall trend of the stock market all have a significant impact on REITs‘ yield rates. Especially from a long-term perspective, factors related to the real estate industry have the most significant impact on REITs‘ yield rates, highlighting the crucial influence of industry-specific dynamics on REITs investment returns. Furthermore, despite the different maturity levels of the Hong Kong and mainland markets, the market factors affecting REITs‘ yield rates in both markets exhibit similar characteristics. In conclusion, based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper offers several recommendations aimed at improving market operating mechanisms, legal framework, and professional talent development, among other measures. Considering the current situation of China‘s REITs development and their yield analysis, this paper believes that REITs in China show strong feasibility and development potential both theoretically and practically. However, as the yield rates of REITs at the current stage remain low, it is necessary to optimize and support through complementary policies, tax incentives, and talent cultivation.