本文在梳理中国动态拨备制度的历史沿革及实施现状的基础上，基于商业银行顺周期性理论、商业银行风险管理、动态拨备制度及新金融工具准则理论，对动态拨备制度下银行拨备计提的周期性以及引入新金融工具准则对银行拨备计提周期性的影响进行了案例分析和定量的实证研究。案例分析方面，本文以笔者实际参与过的某银行新金融工具准则实施作为案例分析对象，对商业银行实施新金融工具准则的情况进行了分析。分析发现，银行实施新金融工具准则后，按预期信用损失法在拨备计提中考虑了前瞻性信息，一定程度增强了逆周期调节效果。实证研究方面，本文基于前述理论、经典文献和案例分析提出研究假设，选取2010年-2022年中国上市银行数据，采用固定效应模型对动态拨备制度下经济波动对银行拨备计提的影响、以及实施新金融工具准则这一事件对经济波动和银行拨备计提两者关系的调节效应进行了实证分析。研究发现，我国动态拨备制度下，经济增长对商业银行拨备计提有正向影响，即在经济上行期增加拨备，经济下行期减少拨备，体现了逆周期调节效果。另外，新金融工具准则的实施进一步加强了银行拨备计提的逆周期性特征。上述研究发现不仅为动态拨备制度对银行拨备计提的逆周期调节效果提供了实证依据，也反映了新金融工具准则增强逆周期调节的有效性。鉴于此，本文认为，银行应根据经济周期的变化调整拨备计提策略，以更有效地应对潜在风险。此外，本文建议监管机构加强协调合作，完善信贷数据和信息披露机制，以确保银行及金融体系的稳健运行。上述建议对于政策制定者和相关从业者均具有一定的参考价值。

This paper, after reviewing the history and current status of China‘s dynamic loan loss provisioning system, conducts a case analysis and empirical study on the cyclicality of bank provisioning under the dynamic provisioning system and the impact of the introduction of new financial instruments standards. The paper takes a bank that the author has been involved in implementing new financial instrument standards as the subject of case analysis. The analysis found that after the implementation of new financial instruments standards, the expected credit loss method of provisioning considered forward-looking information and enhanced the counter-cyclical adjustment effect of provisions to certain extent. In terms of empirical research, based on commercial bank risk management and dynamic provisioning theories, classic literature, and case analysis, the paper proposes research hypotheses. It selects data from Chinese listed banks from 2010 to 2022 and uses the fixed effects model to analyze the impact of economic fluctuations on bank provisioning under the dynamic provisioning system, as well as the moderating effect of the implementation of new financial instrument standards on the relationship between economic fluctuations and bank provisioning. The study finds that the provisioning of commercial banks in China reflects a counter-cyclical effect under the dynamic provisioning system, that is, increasing provisions during economic upswings and reducing provisions during downturns. The implementation of new financial instruments standards has further strengthened the counter-cyclical characteristics.The findings not only provide empirical evidence for the countercyclical effects of provisioning under the dynamic provisioning system but also support the effectiveness of the new financial instrument standards in enhancing counter-cyclical effects. Therefore, banks should adjust their provisioning strategies according to changes in the economic cycle to more effectively address potential risks. Furthermore, this paper suggests that regulatory authorities enhance coordination and cooperation, and improve credit data and disclosure mechanisms to ensure the robust operation of banks and the financial system. These recommendations offer policymakers and practitioners valuable insights.