我国有将近250万家在产工业企业和100万块以上搬迁企业场地。工业场地是土壤和地下水污染的主要来源之一,修复需求巨大。污染场地修复工程具有环境足迹强度和社会经济成本高的特点,现有的修复决策机制难以平衡修复的负面影响和正面效益。在联合国可持续发展目标和“双碳”目标背景下,亟需开展修复策略可持续性评价研究,科学指导污染场地修复决策优化,提升修复效益。研究基于污染场地生命周期理论,系统识别污染场地修复的一次、二次、三次影响要素。围绕修复的环境、社会、经济影响,分别建立了基于系统边界扩展的生命周期评价、层次分析-多准则解排序模型和基于三角模糊数的生命周期成本分析方法;提出优化综合效用评估模型,实现修复的多维度影响统筹分析。通过耦合地下水污染运移数值模拟、健康风险评估、动态生命周期评价,实现了在产企业场地修复可持续性的长期动态表征。案例评价结果显示,集成修复策略通过源削减和末端治理技术的组合应用,相比风险管控策略健康风险降低18%,水质改善效果提升95%,但导致碳排放和修复成本分别增加83%和78%。结合综合效用评估和敏感性分析,提出了分阶段和分区分级的优化修复策略。构建了搬迁企业场地修复层次化评价指标体系,针对我国某大型搬迁企业场地修复工程,基于蒙特卡洛模拟的生命周期可持续性评价结果显示,原地异位修复策略表现出环境、社会、经济优势的置信度分别达到99%、90%、75%,相比场外处置策略ReCiPe端点环境影响降低57%、修复成本减少19%。通过解析与修复可持续性间的非线性动态响应规律,提出了基于土壤淋洗适用性评估-运输量测算-利益相关方偏好分析的多级决策修复技术路线。在关联多目标优化和混合生命周期评价的基础上,通过混合整数模型和规划求解实现了工业聚集区多污染场地集群修复模式和离散修复模式在最优解条件下的可持续性对比分析,提出了基于相对可持续性的污染场地集群修复优化决策路径。案例研究结果显示,集群修复模式能够降低25%~41%的环境影响和23%~39%的修复成本。集群修复模式的应用需要系统评估污染场地的离散度、场地污染规模和潜在可行修复技术,并优化修复工厂的数量和选址。在污染场地集群修复模式下,修复工厂优先适用于处理离散度低、小规模污染场地的污染土壤。
There are nearly 2.5 million in-production enterprises and more than 1 million retreated sites in China. Industrial sites are one of the major sources of soil and groundwater contamination, and the need for remediation is huge. Contaminated site remediation has the characteristics of high environmental footprint and high socio-economic costs. The existing remediation decision-making mechanism is difficult to balance the negative impacts and benefits of remediation. In the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development and Carbon Neutralization Goals, there is an urgent need to carry out study on sustainability assessment of contaminated site remediation, scientifically guiding the optimization of contaminated site remediation decision-making to improve the remediation benefits. Based on the life cycle theory of contaminated sites, the research systematically identifies the primary, secondary, and tertiary impact of contaminated site remediation. Focusing on the environmental, social, and economic impacts of remediation, a life cycle assessment based on system boundary expansion, an integrated method combing AHP-VIKOR model, and fuzzy-life cycle cost analysis were established. An optimized MIVES model is proposed to achieve a coordinated analysis of multi-dimensional impacts of remediation.By coupling the groundwater numerical model, health risk assessment, and dynamic life cycle assessment, the long-term dynamic characterization of the sustainability of the in-production enterprise site remediation is achieved. The results show that the integrated remediation strategy reduces health risks by 18% and improves water quality by 95% compared to the risk control and control strategy through the combined application of source reduction and end-of-pipe treatment technologies, but results in carbon emissions and remediation costs increasing by 83% and 78% respectively. An optimized remediation strategy of stages and zoning was proposed based on the comprehensive sustainability assessment and the sensitivity analysis of critical hydrogeological parameters.A hierarchical assessment indicator set for retreated contaminated site remediation was constructed. The Monte Carlo simulation based assessment results show that the confidence level of on-site ex-situ remediation strategy in showing environmental, social, and economic advantages reaches 99%, 90% and 75%, respectively. Compared with the ex-situ disposal strategy, its ReCiPe endpoint impact is reduced by 57% and the repair cost is reduced by 19%. Based on the quantitative analysis of the nonlinear dynamic response trend between key sensitivity parameters and remediation sustainability, a multi-level decision-making optimization remediation strategy based on soil washing feasibility assessment-transportation volume measurement-stakeholder preference analysis was proposed.Based on correlating multi-objective optimization and hybrid lifecycle assessment, a sustainable assessment method for the remediation of contaminated site clusters in industrial areas was developed. This method enables a comparison between the cluster remediation model and the discrete remediation model under optimal solution conditions through mixed integer model and programming. Additionally, a relative sustainability-based approach that optimizes the decision-making route for cluster remediation was proposed. Case study results show that the cluster remediation strategy can reduce environmental impact by 25% to 41% and remediation costs by 23% to 39%. When applying cluster remediation strategy, it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the dispersion of contaminated sites, site scale, and potentially feasible remediation technologies and optimize the number and location of remediation plants. Under the condition of clusters of contaminated sites, remediation plants are preferentially suitable for treating contaminated soil in low-dispersion and small-scale contaminated sites.