登录 EN

添加临时用户

官员任期、五年规划与政策延续性——以地级市为例

Tenure of officials, Five-year plans and Policy continuity: Study of prefecture-level cities

作者:常文治
  • 学号
    2022******
  • 学位
    硕士
  • 电子邮箱
    cwz******com
  • 答辩日期
    2024.05.25
  • 导师
    鄢一龙
  • 学科名
    公共管理
  • 页码
    129
  • 保密级别
    公开
  • 培养单位
    059 公管学院
  • 中文关键词
    政策延续性;五年规划;官员更替;周期错配
  • 英文关键词
    Policy continuity; Five-year plan; Official turnover; Cycle mismatch

摘要

保持政策延续稳定是我国特色社会主义制度优势的重要体现,稳中求进工作总基调更是我国治国理政的重要原则,维持政策延续性有助于经济社会长期稳定发展。但现实中诸多因素会导致政策不延续,官员更替是最受关注的因素之一。与此同时,本文注意到五年规划是我国政府履行经济社会管理职责的重要依据,理论上具有设定行动框架,保持政策稳定的功能。因此,本文提出核心研究问题:在官员任期与五年规划周期错配背景下,政策延续性会受到何种影响,五年规划能否维持政策延续性,其作用机制又是如何。本文首先回顾已有研究,指出已有研究尚存缺失与空白,对政策延续性问题仍有争论,在官员任期与五年规划周期错配背景下,五年规划对保持政策延续性是否发挥作用及其作用机制的讨论仍有不足。在此基础上,本文提出研究假设:官员任期与五年规划周期错配程度越高,政策延续性受到负面影响越高,而五年规划的考核评估制度能够平抑这一现象。本文以“十三五”规划期间全国地级市为样本进行实证检验,研究假设得到验证。在实证研究基础上,本文结合现有理论,通过逻辑推演的方式分析五年规划影响政策延续性的机制,总结出包含程序保障机制、知识传递机制、目标锚定机制与考核约束机制的四维模型,认为五年规划在制度、内容、过程与结果四个维度维持政策延续性,保持政策方向基本稳定。为证明理论模型的有效性,本文利用案例研究,选取“十三五”规划期间H市实践为案例,通过对两任主政官员的讲话文稿、规划及其他政策文本、访谈资料的深入分析,重点关注H市“十三五”规划指标与任务的完成情况以及三项重点工作的比较,验证了H市“十三五”规划在主政官员任期存在错配的情况下,通过四项机制在四个维度上有效地维持了政策延续性,证明理论模型的有效性与可行性。最后,本文根据研究结果提出相应政策建议。本文的研究内容充分结合官员任期与五年规划视角,为研究五年规划与政策延续性问题提供了新思路与新维度。同时,研究综合运用理论分析、实证研究与案例研究相结合的方法,既进行大样本检验,又对单案例进行深描,论证更贴合实际,也更为充分完整。研究对地方行政实践与维持政策延续性具有重要理论与实践意义。

Maintaining policy continuity and stability is an important embodiment of the advantages of China's characteristic socialist system, and the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability is an important principle of governance in China. Maintaining policy continuity is conducive to the long-term stable development of the economy and society. However, in reality, many factors can lead to the non-continuity of policies, and official turnover is one of the most concerned factors. At the same time, this paper notes that the five-year plan is an important basis for the government to fulfill its responsibilities in economic and social management. In theory, it has the function of setting an action framework and maintaining policy stability. Therefore, this paper proposes the core research questions: in the context of the mismatch between the official tenure and the five-year plan cycle, what kind of impact will the policy continuity be affected by? Can the five-year plan maintain policy continuity? What is its mechanism?Firstly, this paper reviews the existing research and points out that there are still deficiencies and gaps in the existing research. There are still debates on the issue of policy continuity. In the context of the mismatch between the official tenure and the five-year plan cycle, there are still insufficient discussions on whether the five-year plan plays a role in maintaining policy continuity and its mechanism. On this basis, this paper proposes a research hypothesis: the higher the mismatch between the tenure of officials and the five-year plan cycle, the greater the negative impact on policy continuity, and the assessment and evaluation system of the five-year plan can moderate this phenomenon. This paper takes the prefecture-level cities in China during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period as a sample for empirical testing, and the research hypothesis is verified. On the basis of empirical research, this paper combines existing theories and analyzes the mechanisms by which the five-year plan affects policy continuity through logical deduction. It summarizes a four-dimensional model including procedural guarantee mechanism, knowledge transmission mechanism, goal anchoring mechanism and assessment and constraint mechanism. It is believed that the five-year plan maintains policy continuity in the four dimensions of system, content, process and result, and keeps the policy direction basically stable. In order to prove the effectiveness of the theoretical model, this paper uses case studies, selecting the practice of H City during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period as a case. Through in-depth analysis of the speeches, plans and other policy texts of two governing officials and interview data, focusing on the completion of the "13th Five-Year Plan" indicators and tasks of H City and the comparison of three key works, this paper verifies that the "13th Five-Year Plan" of H City effectively maintains policy continuity in four dimensions through four mechanisms in the case of mismatch of governing officials' tenure, proving the effectiveness and feasibility of the theoretical model. Finally, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions according to the research results. The research content of this paper fully combines the perspective of official tenure and five-year plan, providing new ideas and new dimensions for the study of five-year plan and policy continuity. At the same time, the study comprehensively uses the methods of theoretical analysis, empirical research and case study, not only conducts large sample tests, but also deeply describes single case, making the argument more practical and more complete. The study has important theoretical and practical significance for local administrative practice and maintaining policy continuity.