鼠疫是由鼠疫耶尔森杆菌（Yersinia pestis）引起的一种高致病性人畜共患病，历史上，三次鼠疫大流行对人类社会造成了巨大影响。尽管我国自建国以来有效控制了人间鼠疫，但鼠疫杆菌仍存在于鼠疫自然疫源地的宿主动物、媒介和环境中。在我国广泛的鼠疫自然疫源地中，动物间鼠疫流行仍具备发生条件，且存在溢出风险，对人类健康构成严重威胁。鼠疫作为一种自然疫源性疾病，其发生和流行与气候环境条件显著关联。前人的研究表明，气温、降水、海拔和植被覆盖等气候环境变量是影响鼠疫传播的重要因素。考虑到当前全球气候变化的挑战，气候驱动未来鼠疫自然疫源地的分布和活跃度变化值得引起关注。本研究搜集整理了1952~2014年来自云南、甘肃、青海、西藏和新疆的鼠布基地动物间鼠疫监测数据，以及云南省地方病防治所1983~2018年的动物间鼠疫监测数据，分析了黄胸鼠鼠疫及喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫阳性点的空间地理分布情况及其环境特征。利用Maxent模型建立了黄胸鼠和喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫阳性分布点与温度、降水、植被覆盖和土壤条件等气候环境变量间的关系。同时，探测了当前阶段鼠疫阳性风险区的潜在分布，评估了影响鼠疫阳性风险区分布的重要气候环境因素及其相应模式，并预测了SSP245情景下未来鼠疫潜在风险区的空间分布情况，分析了其面积变化和风险变化程度。研究结果显示，在未来气温升高和降水增加的趋势下，气候变化将导致鼠疫潜在风险区扩大并加深风险。未来我国黄胸鼠鼠疫风险区将呈现北移趋势，总风险区面积将持续增加，其中最高风险区面积大幅度增加。年降水量和海拔是黄胸鼠鼠疫风险的重要影响因素，风险随年降水量升高而先增加后降低，随海拔升高而增加。未来我国喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫风险区将呈现向西北移动趋势，总风险区面积将保持相对稳定，略有一点上升趋势，各级风险区面积面临波动变化。年均温和海拔是喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫风险的重要影响因素，风险随年均温升高而增加，随海拔升高而先增加后降低。本研究明确了当前阶段和气候变化背景下未来需要重点关注的动物鼠疫高风险区域范围。建议基于当前阶段潜在风险区分布，警惕非疫源县高风险区的鼠疫发生。结合未来风险区预测结果，关注鼠疫疫源县周边区域的溢出风险，并根据当地社会环境条件，制定风险区动物鼠疫监测方案。

Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a highly pathogenic zoonotic disease that has had significant impacts on human society through three major historical pandemics. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, human plague outbreaks have been effectively controlled, yet Yersinia pestis remains active in host animals, vectors, and the environment within natural plague foci. Despite control efforts, the potential for rodent plague transmission persists within China's extensive natural plague foci, posing a serious threat to human health.As a zoonotic disease, the incidence and spread of plague are closely linked to climatic and environmental conditions. Extensive research has shown that temperature, precipitation, altitude, and vegetation cover are important factors influencing plague transmission. Given the significant challenge of climate change facing humanity, monitoring changes in activity and distribution of plague within natural foci is warranted.This study collected and analyzed rodent plague surveillance data from Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, Tibet, and Xinjiang from 1952 to 2014, along with data from Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control & Prevention from 1983 to 2018. This study examined the relationship between the plague positive point data of Rattus flavipectus and Marmota himalayana with climatic and environmental variables such as temperature, precipitation, vegetation cover, and soil conditions by using the Ecological Niche Model (ENM). High-resolution rodent plague monitoring data was collected for this purpose. Current-stage plague-positive risk areas were detected, and the significant climatic and environmental factors affecting the distribution of these zones and their corresponding patterns were evaluated. Future potential spatial distribution of plague risk areas under the SSP245 scenario was predicted, analyzing changes in area and risk intensity.Results indicate that under conditions of future temperature increase and precipitation rise, climate change will expand and increase the potential risk areas for plague. Future plague risk area for Rattus flavipectus, more significantly affected by climate change, is projected to shift northward, with total risk area continuing to increase. From the current stage of 649,200 km2, the area will increase to 652,700 km2 in the 2030s. It will further increase to 702,300 km2 in the 2050s, and continue to grow to 709,900 km2 in the 2070s. The area with the highest risk level will increase significantly, and it will increase by 94 % in 2070s, reaching 182,900 km2, compared with the current stage. Similarly, future plague risk area for Marmota himalayana is expected to move northwestward, with the total risk area remaining relatively stable, although the areas of different risk levels will experience fluctuating changes.This study supplemented the nation-wide plague risk research based on rodent plague data, and identified high-risk plague areas requiring focused attention under current conditions and in the context of climate change. The study suggests vigilance against plague outbreaks in high-risk areas adjacent to non-endemic counties based on the current distribution of potential risk areas. Recommendations include monitoring the spillover risk from plague-endemic counties in surrounding areas based on future risk area predictions. Additionally, the development of plague surveillance plans tailored to the local socio-environmental conditions within these risk areas is proposed.