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区级五年规划实施效果评估及原因分析 ——以金牛区为例

Effect Evaluation and Cause Analysis of District-Level Five-Year Plan Implementation ——the Case of JinNiu District

作者:黎春宏
  • 学号
    2021******
  • 学位
    硕士
  • 电子邮箱
    180******com
  • 答辩日期
    2024.05.23
  • 导师
    鄢一龙
  • 学科名
    公共管理
  • 页码
    79
  • 保密级别
    公开
  • 培养单位
    059 公管学院
  • 中文关键词
    五年规划;规划评估;规划实施
  • 英文关键词
    Five-Year Plan; Planning evaluation; Planning implementation

摘要

制定实施五年规划这一中长期发展规划是党治国理政的重要方式。目前,我国已形成以国家五年规划为引领,各省、市、区(县)结合实际制定本地五年规划的全面覆盖、层层衔接的五年规划治理体系。作为国家五年规划目标任务逐级分解的最后一环,区级五年规划是研究观察五年规划治理体系的微观窗口。但由于区级五年规划覆盖面较小、相对微观等原因,对区级五年规划研究关注较为不足,且受限于基层政府行政权限低、整体知识不足、资源配置能力较弱等因素,区级五年规划实施效果及制定必要性受到质疑。基于此,本文聚焦成都市金牛区“十四五”规划中期实施情况,利用“目标治理”理论分析框架,通过理论与实证相结合的方式,研究探讨区级“五年规划”实施情况、存在问题及影响因素,力图为完善五年规划治理体系宏观命题在微观层面提供有益探索。本文基于“效用为核心”的评估范式,采用“目标—结果”一致性评估方法,从指标实现一致性、任务完成一致性、实施机制一致性3个维度,对金牛区“十四五”规划是否实现达到预期进度进行评估,并对偏离程度较大的指标任务及影响规划执行的因素进行了分析。评估结果显示,金牛区“十四五”大体推进顺利,但仍有GDP等部分重点指标推进存在困难,创新驱动、开放发展和公共服务等方面任务进度不及预期;受限于区级政府资源配置能力有限、激励约束机制不足等因素,区级“五年规划”实施机制并未彻底落实。本文认为,重GDP的考核导向、缺乏有效的多元主体目标匹配机制、监督约束制度机制不足以及官员任期与规划期错配是导致金牛区“十四五”规划存在目标设置科学性待提升、目标实施优先级不一致、多元主体参与融入不足和规划实施机制不健全等问题的主要原因。基于以上评估分析,微观层面,建议金牛区建立目标动态调适机制、完善区级规划实施机制、激发多元主体参与融入动力;宏观层面,建议进一步完善五年规划实施激励约束机制、健全五年规划衔接支撑体系、健全五年规划评估监督机制,从而不断完善五年规划治理体系、更好发挥五年规划这一“中国之治”引领指导经济社会发展的重要作用。

The formulation and implementation of five-year plans, a medium- and long-term development plan, is an important way for the Party to govern the country. At present, China has formed a comprehensive five-year planning governance system with the national five-year plan as the leader, and provinces, cities and districts (counties) formulating local five-year plans in accordance with the actual five-year plans, which covers the whole country at one level and connects all levels. As the last link in the decomposition and implementation of the national five-year plan, the district-level five-year plan is a micro window to study and observe the five-year plan governance system. However, due to the small coverage and relative microscopic nature of district-level five-year plans, the research on district-level five-year plans has paid less attention to them, and the implementation effect of district-level five-year plans has been partially questioned due to the factors such as the low administrative authority of grassroots governments, the overall lack of knowledge, and the weak capacity of resource allocation. Based on this, this paper focuses on the mid-term implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan in Jinniu District, Chengdu City, and utilizes the theoretical framework of “target governance” to explore the implementation situation, problems and challenges of the district-level Five-Year Plan through a combination of theory and empirical evidence. By combining theory and empirical evidence, the study explores the implementation situation, problems and influencing factors of the district-level “Five-Year Plan”, and tries to provide a useful exploration of the macro proposition of improving the governance system of the five-year plan at the micro level.This paper adopts the “target-results” consistency assessment method to assess whether the 14th Five-Year Plan of Jinniu District has achieved the expected progress in three dimensions: consistency in the realization of indicators, consistency in the completion of tasks, and consistency in the implementation mechanism. The assessment also analyzed the indicators and tasks with large deviations and the factors affecting the implementation of the plan. The assessment results show that Jinniu District's “14th Five-Year Plan” is generally advancing smoothly, but there are still difficulties in advancing some of the key indicators, such as GDP, and the progress of the tasks of innovation-driven, open development and public services is not as good as expected; due to the limited ability of the district government to allocate resources and insufficient incentive and constraint mechanisms, the district-level “Five-Year Plan” has not achieved the expected progress. “The implementation mechanism of the Five-Year Plan has not been fully realized.This paper argues that the main reasons for the lack of scientific goal-setting, the lack of coordination in task promotion, the lack of motivation for social integration, the lack of guarantee for the continuity of planning and the lack of a sound planning and implementation mechanism for the 14th Five-Year Plan of Jinniu District are: the incentive-orientation of the goal assessment, the limited capacity of resource allocation, the lack of integration of diversified subjects, the mismatch between the term of office of the officials and the planning period, and the lack of a mechanism for supervision and constraint. The main reasons for the lack of guarantee for the continuity of planning and the unsoundness of the planning implementation mechanism. Based on the above assessment and analysis, it is suggested that Jinniu District should improve the cycle of “assessment-adjustment-implementation” of the plan, innovate the implementation mechanism of the five-year plan at the district level, and cohesion of the implementation of the five-year plan. At the macro level, it is recommended to build a five-year plan goal-oriented incentive and constraint mechanism, improve the five-year plan articulation and support implementation system, and improve the five-year plan evaluation and supervision system, so as to continuously improve the five-year plan governance system, and to better play the five-year plan, which is the “rule of China”, to lead and guide the important role of economic and social development.