锗是一种稀散金属，是现代高科技产业发展的重要原材料，广泛应用于红外光学系统、光纤网络和航空航天等新兴领域，被世界各国纳入关键金属矿产清单。中国是全球最大的精炼锗供应国，也是锗市场的主要参与者。然而，由于开采和回收之间的不平衡，以及不断增长的需求，锗供应的不确定性正在增加。确保锗的可持续供应对中国的工业发展和国家安全意义重大，为此，本研究旨在深入分析我国锗资源全生命周期的流动规律，确定其损耗路径，把握未来消费需求和二次资源回收潜力，提出潜在的可持续方案，以确保我国锗资源长期供应安全。本文采用动态物质流分析方法，定量分析了我国2000~2019年锗资源流量、存量的动态演变特征，揭示其代谢机理和资源利用效率。然后，通过存量驱动模型，预测到2050年我国锗存量、报废量和需求量的变化趋势，通过情景分析预测到2050年我国锗的供应情景，分析锗供需关系变化。最后，通过情景分析评估我国锗资源可持续发展路径，为保障我国长期锗资源供应安全提供科学指导和建议。本研究的主要结论如下：（1）动态物质流分析发现，锗在生产阶段的回收效率较低，是锗资源损失最大的阶段。其中，锌矿中锗的综合回收率约为5%，锗精矿中锗的回收率约为60%，锌矿和锌精矿回收锗的过程中损失了大量的锗，占全生命周期总损失量的90%以上。（2）红外和光纤是锗的主要消费领域，占总消费比例的60%以上。目前，我国精炼锗市场供过于求，累计了312 t的精炼锗库存。2010~2019年，我国锗的在用存量从52 t增长到285 t。锗的报废量逐年增长，但总量较小，没有回收利用。我国是锗净出口国，主要出口锻轧锗及其制品，2019年净出口锻轧锗约占我国精炼锗产量的四分之一。（3）预计到2050年，我国锗需求将增长181%，红外光学将成为锗需求增长的主要动力。2030后，我国将可能面临锗供不应求的问题。通过提高锌精矿中锗回收率和含锗褐煤中锗回收率，可以显著提高锗的供应水平，满足我国的锗消费需求；保守情况下，综合方案可以一定程度上缓解锗供不应求的局面，并通过历史库存补充供需缺口。

Germanium is a scarce metal that plays a crucial role in the advancement of modern high-tech industries. It is extensively utilized in emerging fields like infrared optical systems, fiber optics, and aerospace. Consequently, it is recognized as a critical metal by countries worldwide. The demand of optical fiber networks, infrared optical systems, and aerospace have led to a significant increase in the consumption of germanium over the past two decades. China is a significant player in the germanium market and the largest supplier of refined germanium in the globe. However, as demand increases and the imbalance between mining and recycling worsens, supply uncertainty for germanium increases. Securing a sustainable supply is crucial for fostering the sustainable development of germanium resources and ensuring the sound growth of China's germanium industry. Therefore, this study seeks to comprehensively analyze the flow pattern of China's germanium throughout entire life cycle, identify the paths of depletion, understand future consumption demand and the potential for recovery of secondary resources, and propose a potentially sustainable solution to ensure the long-term supply security of China's germanium resources.This study presents the initial development of a national-scale dynamic material flow analysis model for germanium in China. It employs quantitative analysis to examine the dynamic evolution attributes of germanium resource stock and flow in China spanning the years 2000 to 2019. Furthermore, the study elucidates the metabolic mechanism and resource utilization efficiency of germanium. The model then forecasts the trends of germanium stock, end-of-life, and demand in China by 2050 using a stock-driven approach. Additionally, scenario analysis is employed to forecast the supply possibility of germanium in China by 2050, and the evolution of the germanium supply and demand relationship is analyzed. In the end, scenario analysis will be used to evaluate the sustainable development trajectory of China's germanium resources, yielding scientific recommendations and guidance to ensure the long-term security of China's germanium resource supply.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1) According to the dynamic material flow analysis, germanium resources are depleted most significantly during the production phase, where recovery is least efficient. Among these, the recovery rate of germanium concentrate is approximately 60% and the comprehensive recovery rate of zinc ore is approximately 5%. The recovery of germanium from zinc ore and concentrate results in a significant quantity of loss, constituting over 90 percent of the overall loss of germanium throughout its life cycle.(2) Since 2000, China's consumption of germanium has increased substantially, and in 2019, it accounted for forty percent of the total global consumption. Infrared and optical fiber are the primary sectors that consume germanium, comprising over 60% of the total. A refined germanium stockpile of 312 t has developed as a consequence of the current oversupply in China's refined germanium market. China's in-use germanium stockpile increased from 52 t in 2010 to 285 t in 2019. Although the end-of-life quantity of germanium increases annually, it remains negligible and is not recycled. China is a net exporter of germanium, primarily exporting wrought germanium and its products; in 2019, approximately a quarter of China's refined germanium production was exported as wrought germanium.(3) By 2050, the demand for germanium in China is projected to increase by 181%, with infrared optics serving as the main engine for this growth. It is anticipated that China will likely experience a shortage of germanium after 2030. By augmenting the recovery rates of zinc concentrate and germanium-containing lignite, it is possible to substantially increase the supply of germanium to satisfy China's demand for germanium. In a conservative strategy, the comprehensive program can partially mitigate the situation of excessive supply of germanium and use the historical stockpile to bridge the gap between supply and demand. In a conservative strategy, the comprehensive plan has the potential to partially mitigate the germanium shortage and bridge the disparity between supply and demand by utilizing the historical stockpile.