奥运会是目前世界上最大的体育赛事，开幕式是奥运会正式开始前的一项重要的媒介仪式，体现着主办城市和举办国家的整体形象和文化软实力，更是传播奥林匹克精神和举办国民族文化的良好平台。开幕式观众人数众多，观众组织得如何、观众素养的高低以及现场的文明程度，将直接关系到主办国的形象。故此，研究影响观众的满意度因素和观众需求满足的路径有着重要意义，也为今后我国举办大型体育活动提供较强的现实参考。本研究以北京冬奥会开幕式现场观众为研究对象，通过使用扎根理论分析访谈数据，厘清现场观众对开幕式满意度的影响因素，剖析观众满意度形成路径，进而构建起北京冬奥会开幕式现场观众满意度影响机制的理论模型。研究发现：1）首先，观众对冬奥会开幕式场景进行感知，在这一过程中感知的主要对象包括：“环境因素”、“社会因素”、“主题内容”和“组织服务”四类，这些外部因素通过“个人因素”这个内在因素，最终形成满意度。2）我们通过扎根理论识别出观众的“开幕式场景感知”和“个体内部感知”这两个主范畴，并可以用“满意度的形成”这一核心范畴来进行概括，观众对不同因素感知的满足是产生满意度的基础，他们的个人内部感知直接影响了满意度的形成。本研究依据数据分析结果，不仅识别出大型体育活动观众的满意度受哪些外在因素影响，并讨论分析观众对单个外部因素和同时叠加多个外部因素的感知，丰富了对体育赛事满意度要素的理论研究。最后这些外部因素通过唤醒个体的过往经验，并经由期待失验和情感满足形成满意度评价。本研究进一步拓展了学界对体育赛事观众满意度的既有研究成果，并从这一理论模型出发，在实践层面为大型体育活动的组织者或主办方提供了启发和建议。

Based on grounded theory, this study analyzed the interview data of audience satisfaction at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, made clear the influencing factors of audience satisfaction at the opening ceremony, analyzed the formation path of audience satisfaction, and compared the analysis results with the disproved expectation theory retrospectively according to grounded theory, and built a theoretical model of the influencing mechanism of audience satisfaction at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games.The research findings include:1) First of all, the audience perceive the scene of the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympic Games. In this process, the main objects of the audience's perception include: "environmental factors", "social factors", "theme content" and "organizational services". These external factors form the satisfaction through the internal factor of "personal factors".2) Based on the grounded theory, we identify the audience's "opening ceremony scene perception" and "individual internal perception" as two main categories, which can be summarized with the core category of "the formation of satisfaction". The audience's satisfaction of different factors is the basis of satisfaction, and their personal internal perception directly affects the formation of satisfaction.From the perspective of the audience at the opening ceremony, this study uses grounded theory to analyze qualitative data and explore the factors affecting audience satisfaction, which can fill the academic gap in this field to a certain extent. At the practical level, it provides inspiration and suggestions for the organizers or hosts of large-scale sports activities.