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土地利用与交通融合视角下的TOD减碳效果研究

Research on TOD Carbon Reduction Effects from the Perspective of Land Use and Transportation Integration

作者:刘若阳
  • 学号
    2020******
  • 学位
    硕士
  • 电子邮箱
    liu******.cn
  • 答辩日期
    2023.05.15
  • 导师
    陆化普
  • 学科名
    交通运输工程
  • 页码
    115
  • 保密级别
    公开
  • 培养单位
    003 土木系
  • 中文关键词
    低碳发展,TOD发展战略,城市空间布局,客运交通碳排放模型,土地利用
  • 英文关键词
    low carbon development,TOD development strategy,urban spatial layout, carbon emission model for passenger transport, land use

摘要

当前,城镇化进程中出现的超特大城市发展问题在交通状况与碳排放问题日益凸显,城市的无序扩张进一步加大了交通阻塞与能源消耗。在我国提出“推进以人为本的城镇化”以及“双碳”目标的背景下,应当尽快探寻超特大城市的精明增长、降低城市交通碳排放。基于集约化的土地利用模式,TOD建设能有效实现公共交通主导的城市发展模式,从而减少城市客运交通碳排放。本研究首先从TOD的内涵、发展模式、低碳特性等方面论证了其能够降低城市客运交通碳排放的内在机理。为推进TOD在我国城市的应用,分析了交通与土地利用融合发展模式与常规发展模式在用地布局、人口密度分布上的差异,论证了TOD模式下的人口分布及其与交通系统的耦合关系特征;城市空间合理结构及其与交通系统深度融合的基本思路、规划设计原则、实现途径,涵盖城市群范围内的城市空间布局结构(宏观)、都市圈与中心城区范围内的组团结构(中观)、轨道交通站点及其周边用地结构(微观)三个层次。为对进行实际测算,提出了基于土地利用变化测算城市客运交通碳排放的模型,并构造经济发展潜力指数与碳排放水平指数,同时设定了三种发展情景——惯性情景、低碳交通情景、TOD模式情景,通过计算不同发展情景下的指数数值的变化情况,得到不同发展情境对经济发展潜力与碳减排能力的贡献率。在此基础上,以贵阳市花溪区的三个TOD站点——明珠大道站、花溪南站、桃花寨站为研究对象,分析结论主要包括:(1)TOD模式发展情景下,经济发展潜力增长最大的是花溪南站,增长了6.28倍,其次是桃花寨站,增长了5.39倍,再次为明珠大道站,增长了4.98倍。(2)低碳交通发展情景下的交通出行低碳贡献率为22.52%,TOD模式发展情景下,三个站点的交通出行低碳贡献率达到48%。以计算结果为支撑,研究最后从城市空间布局、交通系统布局等方面提出了城市低碳化发展的建议,并基于目前的TOD战略项目推进模式,在管理统筹、法律政策等方面采取行动,为TOD模式深化应用、提升城市建设水平提供支持。

Currently, the development problems of super mega cities in the process of urbanization are increasingly prominent in terms of transportation conditions and carbon emissions. The disorderly expansion of cities further increases traffic congestion and energy consumption. Against the backdrop of China‘s proposal of "Promoting People-oriented Urbanization" and "Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality" goals, it is necessary to explore the smart growth of super mega cities and reduce urban transportation carbon emissions as soon as possible. Based on an intensive land use, TOD construction can effectively achieve a public transportation led urban development model, thereby reducing carbon emissions from urban passenger transportation. This study first demonstrates the inherent mechanism of TOD‘s ability to reduce carbon emissions from urban passenger transportation from aspects such as its connotation, development mode, and low-carbon characteristics.In order to obtain the quantitative effect, a model based on land use change was proposed to calculate the carbon emissions of urban passenger transportation, and an economic development potential index and carbon emission level index were constructed. Three development scenarios: inertia scenario, low-carbon transportation scenario, and TOD mode scenario were set, and the changes in index values under different development scenarios were calculated. The contribution rates of different development scenarios to economic development potential and carbon reduction capabilities were obtained.On this basis, taking three TOD stations in Huaxi District, Guiyang City, which were Mingzhu Avenue Station, Huaxi South Station, and Taohuazhai Station as the research objects, the analysis conclusions mainly include: (1) In the TOD mode development scenario, the Huaxi South Station has the greatest economic development potential growth, an increase of 6.28 times, followed by Taohuazhai Station, an increase of 5.39 times, and again, Mingzhu Avenue Station, an increase of 4.98 times. (2) The low-carbon contribution rate of transportation in the low-carbon transportation development scenario is 22.52%, while in the TOD mode development scenario, the low-carbon contribution rate of transportation in the three stations reaches 48%.Based on the results, suggestions for low-carbon urban development were proposed in terms of urban spatial layout, transportation system layout, and other aspects. In order to promote the application of TOD in China‘s cities, this paper analyzed the differences between the integrated development model of transportation and land use and the conventional development model in land use layout and population density distribution, and demonstrates the characteristics of population distribution and its coupling relationship with the transportation system under the TOD model. This paper also analyzed the rational structure of urban space and the basic ideas, planning and design principles, and implementation approaches of its deep integration with the transportation system cover three levels: the urban spatial layout structure within the scope of the urban agglomeration (macro), the cluster structure within the metropolitan area and the central urban area (meso), and the land structure of rail transit stations and their surrounding areas (micro). Based on the current TOD strategic project promotion model, actions will be taken in management coordination, legal policies, and other aspects to provide support for the deepening application of the TOD model and improving the level of urban construction.