京津冀是我国重要的粮食、能源消费地，但水资源短缺已严重制约该区域粮食、能源和生态的可持续发展。如何协同水资源-粮食-能源-生态（水-粮-能-生）各系统发展目标，明晰系统间耦合互馈关系，形成水-粮-能-生协同调控方案已是实现区域可持续发展的当务之急。本文针对上述问题，以水为纽带在京津冀开展水-粮-能-生系统耦合模拟与协同调控研究，主要内容和结论如下：（1）通过解析水-粮-能-生系统的演化机制，发现京津冀水-粮-能-生系统呈现深度耦合和强烈竞争相结合，并向着协同发展的演化特征。其中水资源系统对粮食和生态系统呈现促进作用，粮食和生态系统之间呈现竞争关系，整个水-粮-能-生系统的协同发展能力表现出由较差发展到好的状态。（2）构建了水-粮-能-生耦合模拟与调控模型，创建了量化水-粮-能-生系统协同发展能力的综合协同指数，研究了粮食安全、生态恢复等不同调控情景对京津冀协同发展的影响。结果表明，如果要保障粮食100%自给，相比现状需要增加超采23.0亿m3浅层地下水，综合协同指数也将从0.702降为0.687；如果要实现地下水采补平衡和最小生态需水需求，综合协同指数将升至0.743。（3）现状京津冀水资源供需平衡主要是依靠超采地下水和挤占河湖生态用水来维持，为实现地下水采补平衡和最小生态需水需求，需要加大南水北调中东线后续调水规模；在南水北调中线一期工程达效运行前提下，京津冀仍将存在16.4%的缺水率，对应粮食自给率为61.3%，综合协同指数为0.757。（4）通过对需求变化、生态保障和供水能力逐步推演，确定未来变化环境下京津冀水-粮-能-生系统协同发展推荐情景。该情景下京津冀粮食生产和生态恢复之间竞争性用水可以得到满足，缺水率仅为2.6%，粮食自给率为69.3%，社会水循环耗能1497.7亿kWh。考虑极端气候事件对水-粮-能-生系统的潜在风险，为实现京津冀经济社会可持续和水-粮-能-生系统协同发展，从受水区需求出发，提出南水北调中东线后续工程年调水规模应在46亿~60亿m3。本文构建了水-粮-能-生耦合模拟与调控模型，以保障水安全、粮食安全、低碳发展和生态健康为目标，提出了京津冀水-粮-能-生系统协同发展调控方案，丰富和发展了水-粮-能-生系统协同调控的理论和方法，可为解决相关地区水资源、粮食、能源、生态之间失衡问题提供技术参考。
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is an important food and energy consumption area in China, but the shortage of water resources has seriously restricted the sustainable development of food, energy, and ecology in this region. How to coordinate the development goals of water-food-energy-ecology (WFEE) system, clarify the coupling and mutual feedback relationship between systems, and form a WFEE coordinated scheme has become a top priority for achieving regional sustainable development. In response to the above issues, this thesis takes the water cycle as the key process to carry out the study on the coupling simulation and coordinated regulation of the WFEE system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:Firstly, by analyzing the evolution mechanism of the WFEE system, it is found that the WFEE system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region presents a combination of deep coupling and strong competition, and is evolving towards collaborative development. And the water resources system has a promoting effect on the food and ecology system, and there is a competitive relationship between the food and ecology system. The collaborative development ability of the WFEE system has shown a state of development from poor to good.Secondly, a coupled simulation and regulation model for WFEE system was constructed, and a comprehensive sustainability index was created to quantify the collaborative development ability of the WFEE system. The impact of different regulatory scenarios such as food security and ecological restoration on the collaborative development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was studied. The results show that to ensure 100% food self-sufficiency, 2.30 billion m3 more shallow groundwater needs to be extracted than the current situation, and the comprehensive sustainability index will decrease from 0.702 to 0.687. If the balance of groundwater extraction and recharge and the minimum ecological water demand are realized, the comprehensive sustainability index will rise to 0.743.Thirdly, the current balance between supply and demand of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is mainly maintained by overexploitation of groundwater and encroachment on ecological water use in rivers and lakes. In order to achieve the balance of groundwater extraction and recharge and the minimum ecological water demand, it is necessary to increase the scale of follow-up project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP). On the premise that the first phase of the Middle Routet of the SNWDP has achieved effective operation, there will still be a 16.4% water shortage rate in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, with a corresponding food self-sufficiency rate of 61.3% and a comprehensive sustainability index of 0.757.Finally, through the gradual deduction of demand changes, ecological security, and water supply capacity, the recommended scenario for the coordinated development of the WFEE system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under the future changing environment is determined. Under this scenario, the competitive water use between food production and ecological restoration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can be satisfied, with a water shortage rate of only 2.6%, a food self-sufficiency rate of 69.3%, and a social water cycle energy consumption of 149.77 billion kWh. Considering the risk of extreme climate events on the WFEE system, in order to achieve the sustainable economic and social development and the coordinated development of the WFEE system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, based on the needs of the water receiving areas, it is proposed that the annual water transfer scale of the follow-up project of the Middle and East Line of the SNWDP should be between 4.6 billion and 6 billion m3.In this thesis, a coupled simulation and regulation model for WFEE system has been constructed. With the goal of ensuring water security, food security, low-carbon development, and ecological health, a coordinated development and regulation scheme for the WFEE system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been proposed, enriching and developing the theory and methods of coordinated regulation of WFEE system, which can provide technical reference for solving the imbalance between water resources, food, energy and ecology in relevant regions.
