在水资源刚性约束与双碳控制目标要求下，研究如何管理调控水资源，实现节水低碳发展，具有重要的科学意义与现实意义。长江经济带作为我国重大国家战略发展区域，用水与碳排放量均占全国的40%左右，面临严峻的资源环境压力。本研究分析水-碳-经济联动关系，构建水-碳-经济调控模拟模型框架。解析长江经济带行业用水、碳排放特征与驱动因素，得出调控重点行业与调控路径。开展长江经济带水-碳-经济调控情景分析，模拟调控情景的水-碳-经济影响。构建节水低碳经济评价指标体系，给出了推荐情景。论文主要成果如下：（1）分析了水-碳-经济联动关系，构建了水-碳-经济调控模拟模型框架。基于投入产出理论建立了行业用水量、碳排放量与经济结构、需求规模之间的数量关系。以此为基础扩展改进了CGE模型的水模块、能源模块、水碳核算模块与水碳政策模块，并将WAS模型与扩展改进的CGE模型耦合，构建了水-碳-经济调控模拟模型框架，为调控研究提供了定量化工具。（2）分析了长江经济带行业水-碳特征与驱动因素。根据长江经济带行业用水量、碳排放量等行业水-碳特征，得出了包括电力热力生产供应、金属冶炼等调控重点行业。基于IO-SDA模型，将2007年-2017年用水量增长分解为用水技术效应-1850.27亿立方米，经济结构效应+91.18亿立方米，需求规模效应+1894.54亿立方米。将碳排放量增长分解为能源技术效应-0.12亿吨，能源结构效应-17.99亿吨，经济结构效应+8.79亿吨，需求规模效应+14.56亿吨。研究表明合理调整经济结构与最终需求规模，优化能源结构，改进用水技术与能源技术等是水-碳-经济调控的可行路径。（3）构建了长江经济带水-碳-经济调控模拟模型，分析了“控水”、“控碳”、“水碳联控”等调控情景下的水-碳-经济影响。结果表明水碳联控情景的节水减碳效果较为明显，其中用水量影响在-2.32%~-0.17%之间，碳排放量影响在-0.56%~-1.98%之间。在控碳情景下，用水量影响在-0.74%~0.04%之间，通过调整能源结构，可以在减碳的同时实现节水。控水情景对于减碳的效果比较有限，其影响在-0.06%~0.00%之间。构建了节水低碳经济评价指标体系，给出产业结构调整、节水节能技术改造、清洁电力补贴等推荐情景。
Under the rigid constraints of water resources and the requirements for dual carbon control, studying on managing and regulating water resources to achieve water conservation and carbon reduction development has significant scientific and practical significance. As a major national strategic development region in China, the Yangtze River Economic Belt accounts for approximately 40% of the nation‘s water use and carbon emissions, facing severe resource and environmental pressures. This study analyzes the Water-Carbon-Economy linkage and constructs a water-carbon-economy regulation model framework. The study analyzes the characteristics and driving factors of water use and carbon emissions in industries along the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and identifies key industries and regulation pathways for water-carbon regulation. The study conducts scenario analyses for water-carbon-economy regulation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and evaluates the water-carbon-economic impacts. A comprehensive evaluation index system for water conservation and low-carbon economy is established, providing recommended scenarios. The main findings of the study are as follows:(1) The study analyzes the Water-Carbon-Economy linkage and constructs a Water-Carbon-Economy regulation simulation model framework. Based on input-output theory, quantitative relationships between industry water use, carbon emissions, economic structure, and demand scale are established. Building upon this foundation, the study improves the water module, energy module, water-carbon accounting module, and water-carbon policy module of the CGE model, and couples the WAS model with the improved CGE model to construct the model framework for Water-Carbon-Economy regulation simulation, providing a quantitative tool for regulation research.(2) The study analyzes the water-carbon characteristics and driving factors in industries along the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Based on the water use and carbon emissions in industries along the belt, key industries for regulation are identified, such as electricity and heat production and supply, as well as metal smelting and rolling processing products. The IO-SDA model is adopted to decompose the 13.546 billion cubic meters increase in water use from 2007 to 2017 into water use technology effect of 18.5027 billion cubic meters, economic structure effect of 9.118 billion cubic meters, and demand scale effect of 189.454 billion cubic meters. Decompose the 614 million ton increase in carbon emissions into energy technology effect of -0.12 million tons, energy structure effect of -1.799 billion tons, economic structure effect of 0.879 billion tons, and demand scale effect of 14.56 billion tons. The study concludes that adjusting economic structure and final demand scale, optimizing energy structure, and improving water and energy technologies are feasible paths for water-carbon-economic regulation. (3) The study constructs a Water-Carbon-Economy regulation simulation model of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and analyzes the water-carbon-economic impacts under different regulation scenarios such as "water control," "carbon control," and "water-carbon joint control." Results indicates that the scenario of integrated water-carbon control demonstrated significant water and carbon reduction effects, with water use influences ranging from -2.32% to -0.17% and carbon emission influences ranging from -0.56% to -1.98%. In the carbon control scenario, water use ranges from -0.74% to 0.04%, and by adjusting the energy structure, both carbon reduction and water conservation can be achieved. The water control scenario has a limited effect on carbon reduction, with impacts ranging from -0.06% to 0.00%. A comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed for scenario evaluation, and recommended scenarios include industrial structure adjustment, water-saving and energy-saving technology transformation, and clean power subsidies.
