为了应对气候变化，控制煤炭消费已经成为全球趋势。然而，中国能源低碳转型的实践表明，电煤供应链的安全稳定运行仍然不可或缺，否则会带来大规模限电等风险。因此，如何兼顾低碳发展和电力安全，保证电煤供应链的韧性以应对不确定性和波动性成为一个关键问题。这一问题不仅涉及了煤矿开采、洗选、运输和电厂各环节的相互配合，也与各环节库存的调节能力息息相关。现有关于电煤供应链的研究主要限制在企业级别的研究范围内，如何将其拓展到国家层面的能源转型过程中，是一个值得探索的前沿问题。本文尝试建立国家级别的电煤供应链模型及动态问题分析方法，并对中国的电煤供应链进行历史校验和未来情景分析。首先，本文考虑国家级别供应链的物质流及信息流交互，通过合并和简化信息流动和电煤运输，将电煤供应链网络简化为电煤供应链单链，从而建立了可反映国家级电煤供应链动态的系统动力学模型，并使用中国2011-2020年的电煤生产和消费数据对模型进行参数校验和验证。其次，本文尝试了对中国电煤供应链长期动态问题的影响和短期突发事件的响应进行分析。在对中国电煤供应链长期动态问题的影响的研究中，本文引入了电煤产能冗余度系数的概念反应电煤消费与所需的电煤煤矿产能的关系，并设计了6种未来电煤消费和库存策略情景。情景对比结果表明，中国电煤供应链的建设需要重视电煤产能冗余度、各环节电煤库存建设和各环节间运输能力建设的协调配合，有必要在电煤消费达峰前提高增加电煤产能和各环节库存建设，必须长期保证充足的运输能力以应对未来的电煤消费不确定性和波动性。在对电煤供应链短期突发事件的响应的研究中，本文主要从生产端和消费端入手，参考过去发生的电力供应事故和电煤煤矿的地理分布，设计了未来电煤供应链可能面对的突发事件。模型模拟运算结果表明，生产端和消费端的突发事件都将对整个电煤供应链的整体供应能力造成影响并有可能引发电力短缺等能源安全问题。综合以上结果，本文建议为兼顾碳减排与能源安全，有必要加强电煤供应链的煤矿产能冗余、库存建设管理和运输能力建设与协调配合能力，并可以尝试建设电煤战略库存以应对突发事件对电煤供应链的冲击。
In response to climate change, controlling coal consumption has become a global trend. However, the practice of China‘s energy low-carbon transition shows that the safe and stable operation of coal supply chains is still indispensable, otherwise it will bring risks such as large-scale power cuts. Therefore, how to guarantee the resilience of these supply chains during the low-carbon transition becomes a critical issue. This issue not only involves the mutual cooperation of coal mining, washing, transportation and coal-fired power plants, but also is closely related to the adjustment ability of each link‘s stock. Existing research on the power-coal supply chains is mainly limited to the enterprise level. How to extend it to the national level is a frontier issue worth exploring. This paper aims to establish a national-level power-coal supply chain model and dynamic problem analysis method, and conducts historical verification and future scenario analysis of China‘s power-coal supply chains.Firstly, this paper considers the material flows and information flows interaction of the national-level supply chain. By merging and simplifying the information flows and power-coal transportation, the power-coal supply chain network is simplified into a single chain, thus establishing a system dynamics model that can reflect the dynamics of national-level power-coal supply chains. By using China‘s 2011-2020 power-coal production and consumption data, preset parameters are verified and model is validated Secondly, this paper attempts to analyze the impact of long-term dynamic problems and the response to short-term emergencies in China‘s power-coal supply chain. In the study of the impact on the long-term dynamic problems, this paper introduces the concept of power-coal capacity redundancy coefficient to reflect the relationship between power-coal consumption and the required capacity of power-coal mines, and designs 6 future power-coal consumption and stock strategy scenarios from 2021 to 2060. The scenario comparison results show that the construction of China‘s power-coal supply chain needs to pay attention to the coordination and cooperation of power-coal production capacity redundancy, power- coal stock construction in each link, and transportation capacity construction between various links. It is necessary to increase power-coal production capacity and stock construction in various links before power-coal consumption reaches its peak, and sufficient transportation capacity must be ensured for a long time to cope with future uncertainty and volatility of power-coal consumption. In the research on the response to short-term emergencies, this paper mainly focuses on the production end and the consumption end. Referring to the power supply accidents in the past and the geographical distribution of coal mines, the possible emergencies that the power-coal supply chains may face in the future are designed. The simulation results show that both production and consumption emergencies will affect the supply capacity of the entire power-coal supply chain and may cause energy security issues such as power shortages.Based on the above results, this paper suggests that in order to take into account both carbon emission reduction and energy security, it is necessary to strengthen coal mine capacity redundancy, stock construction management, and transportation capacity construction and coordination capabilities in the power-coal supply chains, and building power-coal strategic stocks can be a way to deal with the impact of emergencies on the power-coal supply chains.
