本文核心论点是：中国2020年至2025年将是向高级自主驾驶跃升的关键5年，自动驾驶行业投资数量和投资金额快速增长。从行业角度，投资机会在于低级别自动驾驶市场，2025年是之前别投标的能否通过车规量产是重要评价指标，而其开始研发的时间点不能晚于2019-2020年。从技术角度，被投标的应具有三大技术指标：芯片算力满足市场需求、芯片满足车规级别以及具有提供开放的且相对完善的芯片开发工具链的能力。同时，结合国外Mobileye芯片投资案例得出结论，自动驾驶芯片的投资具有投资周期长、回报率高的特点，目前国内自动驾驶芯片种子期投资机会已经基本关闭，重点的投资机会在初创期和成长期，投资者应重点关注标的市场资源、产品优势以及盈利预测。相比于Mobileye，国内自动驾驶芯片公司仍有估值上涨空间。围绕上述论点，论文从四个方面进行论述：首先，文章论述自动驾驶行业发展历程，总结国内外自动驾驶行业的发展差距。国内外自动驾驶差距在5-10年，国内处于快速追赶阶段。美国芯片法案禁止向中国出售高算力芯片，未来自动驾驶芯片投资具有战略安全意义。其次，文章详细分析自动驾驶产业链，结合产业链上各环节的价值以及自动驾驶市场发展趋势，得出重要结论：中国自动驾驶芯片投资机会在低级别自动驾驶市场，2025年是芯片上车的重要时间节点。再次，文章通过分析国内外自动驾驶芯片的技术发路线，得出结论专用芯片是国产芯片未来主要发展方向，具体要从三个方面筛选投资标的。优秀的投资标的技术水平应主要围绕三点：一是具有具有优秀的算力和能耗比，二是具有车规级芯片落地能力，三是具有完善的软件开发工具链。最后通过国外成功上市的Mobileye投资案例，分析自动驾驶芯片的股权投资价值。目前国内种子期投资机会较小，初创期和成长期是主要投资方向，投资人应重点关注标的公司的行业地位、技术优势以及未来盈利水平。中国作为汽车销量的大国，需要快速缩短与国外自动驾驶领域的差距，实现从软件到硬件的全平台开发能力。论文将基于基本面分析的方法和初创科技公司的生命周期理论，分析未来自动驾驶芯片的投资机会，为致力于芯片事业的中国芯片投资者提供借鉴意义。
The core argument of this paper is that 2020 to 2025 will be the key 5 years to advanced autonomous driving, and the number of investments and investment amount in the autonomous driving industry is growing rapidly. From the industry perspective, the investment opportunity lies in the low-level autonomous driving market, before 2025 whether it can pass the vehicle regulation mass production is an important evaluation indicator, and the timing of its start of research and development cannot be later than 2019-2020. From the technical point of view, the bid should have three major technical indicators: the ability to meet arithmetic demand, the ability to meet the vehicle specification level and the ability to provide an open and relatively complete chip development tool chain. At the same time, the thesis concluded that the investment in self-driving chip has the characteristics of long investment cycle and high return, the current domestic self-driving chip seed stage investment opportunities have basically closed, and main investment opportunities occur in the start-up period and growth period. Investors should focus on the subject market resources, product advantages and profitability forecasts to analyze investment opportunities. Compared with Mobileye, domestic self-driving chip companies still have valuation upside.Around the above arguments, the paper discusses four aspects:First, the article discusses the development history of the autonomous driving industry and summarizes the development gap between domestic and foreign autonomous driving industries. The gap between domestic and foreign autonomous driving is 5-10 years, and the country is in a rapid catch-up stage. The U.S. chip bill prohibits the sale of high-calculus chips to China, and future investment in self-driving chips has strategic security significance.Second, the article analyzes the autonomous driving industry chain in detail, combining the value of each link in the industry chain and the development trend of the autonomous driving market, and draws an important conclusion: China‘s autonomous driving chip investment opportunities are in the low-level autonomous driving market, and 2025 is an important time node for the chip to get on board.Again, the article analyzes the technical development route of domestic and foreign autonomous driving chips, concluding that special chips are the main development direction of domestic chips in the future, specifically to screen investment targets from three aspects.Excellent investment target technology level should mainly focus on three points: one is with excellent arithmetic and energy consumption ratio, the second is with the vehicle specification level chip landing ability, the third is with a perfect software development tool chain.Finally, through the successful foreign listing of Mobileye investment cases, analysis of the equity investment value of self-driving chips. At present, the domestic seed stage investment opportunities are small, and the start-up and growth stage are the main investment directions. Investors should focus on the industry status, technical advantages and future profitability level of the underlying company.China, as a large country in terms of automobile sales, needs to quickly shorten the gap with foreign countries in the field of autonomous driving and realize the ability to develop the whole platform from software to hardware. The paper will analyze the future investment opportunities in self-driving chips based on the approach of fundamental analysis and the life cycle theory of technology start-ups, providing implications for investors who are committed to enhancing the chip business in China.
