自1998年国务院颁布了房改政策以来,我国涌现了诸如华夏幸福、融创、蓝光地产、泰禾、阳光城、恒大等一批民营高周转房地产企业,它们发展模式主要是从过去的房地产开发经营模式逐步发展为以房地产为主业的类金融企业发展模式。这类房地产企业融资杠杠过高、无序扩张、管理粗放,以及遇到了国家“三道红线”、“两道杠”等严格的房地产去金融化政策调控,它们最终走到了无法偿还到期债务的局面。本研究主要是采取文献梳理、理论演绎、案例调研的方法开展我国房地产企业高周转研究,并提出未来我国房地产企业发展模式以及实施路径。其中,本研究采用PEST分析框架,分别从政策、经济、社会、技术环境分析我国高周转房地产企业所处的外部宏观环境。本研究采取分阶段并结合实际高周转企业经营情况进行分析研判,提出了高周转房地产企业在正常状态下、宏观政策调控期、金融严控期、暴雷后保交付四个状态下的房地产企业高周转模式。本研究基于PRE-M战略节奏理论框架,采取行业逻辑与高周转房地产案例相结合的方式,分别从产品市场、资源市场、以及股权市场对我国房地产高周转模式进一步论证分析,发现X房地产企业的多元化经营主要是为了房地产业务高杠杆高周转服务。最后,基于上述对于我国高周转房地产企业运转模式剖析,本研究提出未来我国房地产企业的发展模式:未来我国房地产企业需要以股东利益最大化为核心要点,以”拿好地、做好产品”为核心盈利能力,创造项目高利润空间,并通过强营销力保证高价格、高去化,兑现高利润的现金流。同时,它们还需要以加融资杠杆、经营杠杆的方式加快资金周转,在保证现金流安全的前提下,实现股东回报最大化。此外,本研究还提出我国房地产企业需要将保交房作为核心工作,保质保量完成;积极与金融机构以及产业链上下游供应商谈判,妥善推进债务化解工作;痛下决心,切实提升公司治理能力;主动思考,结合实际情况,打造新增长极四个具体实践路径给出了建议。
Since the State Council issued the housing reform policy in 1998, a number of private high turnover real estate enterprises have emerged in China, such as CFLD, Sunac, Blue Light Real Estate, Taihe, Sunshine City, Evergrande, etc. Their development model has gradually evolved from the past real estate development and operation model to the development model of financial enterprises with real estate as their main business. This type of real estate enterprise has excessively high financing leverage, disorderly expansion, extensive management, and has encountered strict national "three red lines", "two bars" and other strict real estate non-financial policies and regulations, ultimately leading to a situation where they are unable to repay their due debts.This study mainly adopts the methods of literature review, theoretical deduction, and case study to conduct a study on high turnover of Chinese real estate enterprises, and proposes the future development model and implementation path of Chinese real estate enterprises. Specifically, this study uses the PEST analysis framework to analyze the external environment of China‘s high turnover real estate enterprises from the perspective of policy, economic, social, and technological environments. This study adopts a phased analysis and judgment based on the actual operation of high turnover real estate enterprises, and proposes a high turnover model for real estate enterprises in four states: under normal conditions, under macro policy control, under strict financial control, and after the mine explosion, guarantee and delivery. This study uses the PRE-M strategic analysis model to further demonstrate and analyze the high turnover model of real estate in China from the product market, resource market, and equity market, using a combination of industry logic and high turnover real estate cases.Finally, based on the analysis of the operation mode of China‘s high turnover real estate enterprises mentioned above, this study proposes the development mode of China‘s high turnover real estate enterprises in the future: China‘s high turnover real estate enterprises need to focus on maximizing shareholder interests as the core point, and "take good land and products" as the core profitability, create high profit space for projects, and ensure high prices and high specialization through strong marketing power, to achieve high profit cash flow. At the same time, they also need to accelerate capital turnover by adding financing and operational leverage, while ensuring cash flow safety and maximizing shareholder returns. From the perspective of practical paths, this study also proposes that China‘s high turnover real estate enterprises need to take ensuring the delivery of housing as their core work, complete it with quality and quantity, actively negotiate with financial institutions and upstream and downstream suppliers of the industry chain, properly promote debt resolution work, make a determination to effectively improve corporate governance capabilities, and create new growth poles based on actual situations.