中国与巴西是世界重要新兴大国。1990年以来，随着全球一体化程度的提高，中国与巴西的经济交往更加密切，对于对方的经贸依赖程度也在不断加深。与此同时，这种相互的经贸依赖关系也呈现出不对称性。本文首先分析了中国与巴西经济的对外依存度及其变化情况和原因，随后对中国与巴西双边经贸关系的历史发展沿革进行了综述。随后，通过构建一系列指标和模型，本文从脆弱性、贸易结构和敏感性三个角度对中国与巴西的不对称经贸依赖关系进行了定量的衡量和分析，并得出了以下四个结论：第一，由于经济体量的差距，巴西对中国总体的经贸依赖程度超过了中国对巴西的依赖程度，中国在双边经贸关系中处于主导地位；第二，贸易结构的不对称性明显，巴西进口中国的产品以制成品为主，巴西出口中国的产品以资源品为主，巴西出口中国产品的集中度大于巴西进口中国产品的集中度，而这主要是因为双方不同的经济禀赋所致；第三，贸易依赖程度的不对称程度对于双边贸易的发展有抑制作用，而贸易结构的不对称程度对双边贸易的发展具有促进作用；第四，根据上述分析结果，中国进口巴西资源品是双边经贸关系的核心议题，而这一领域的经贸依赖不对称性相对较弱，即中国的优势相对较小甚至反而具有劣势。由此，在定量分析的基础上，本文通过宝钢与淡水河谷在2000至2010年间的合作这一案例，进一步说明了在这一代表性的关键领域中不对称的经贸依赖关系对于两国企业经营发展的影响，并指出了在这种情形下的中国企业的合理应对措施。最后，本文指出了中国与巴西在不对称的经贸关系下开始接受本币结算面临的核心挑战是如何维护并增加巴方持有的大量离岸人民币的使用价值，并给出了政策建议。本文的创新之处有三：其一，本文通过分析中国与巴西两大各具特点的发展中国家的经贸依赖关系，拓展了经贸依赖理论以往聚焦于发达国家之间或发达国家与发展中国家之间的研究对象范畴；其二，本文跳脱出了传统视角，从单纯的互补性转变为博弈和合作并存来看待中巴经贸关系，对现有中巴经贸关系的研究予以补充，在当前冲突与挑战加剧的国际形势下也更具有实践意义。其三，本文对铁矿石贸易和本币结算等当前中巴经贸交流中的热点话题进行了探讨，具备一定的时代意义。
China and Brazil are important emerging powers in the world. Since 1990, with the increasing degree of global integration, the economic interaction between China and Brazil has become closer, and their mutual economic dependence has also deepened. At the same time, this mutual economic dependence has also shown asymmetry. This article first analyzes the transition of the degree of external trade dependence of the two countries, and then summarizes the historical development of China and Brazil‘s bilateral economic and trade relations. Subsequently, by constructing a series of indicators and models, this article quantitatively measures and analyzes the asymmetric economic dependence relationship between China and Brazil from three perspectives: fragility, structure, and sensitivity. Four conclusions are drawn: First, due to the difference in economic size, Brazil‘s overall economic dependence on China exceeds China‘s dependence on Brazil, and China is in a dominant position in the bilateral relation. Second, the asymmetry of trade structure is obvious, as Brazil imports manufactured products mainly, while its exports to China are mainly resource products; the degree of products’ concentration of Brazil‘s exports to China is greater than that of its imports from China. Third, the degree of asymmetry of trade dependence has a restraining effect on the development of trade volume, while the degree of asymmetry of trade structure has a promoting effect on the development of trade volume. Fourth, based on the above analysis, China‘s import of resource products from Brazil is the core issue in the bilateral relation, and the asymmetry of economic dependence in this field is relatively weak, that means, China‘s advantage is relatively small and even has disadvantages. Therefore, based on the quantitative analysis, this article further illustrates the influence of asymmetric economic trade dependence on the two countries‘ enterprises by using the case of the cooperation between Baosteel and Vale from 2000 to 2010, and points out the reasonable coping strategies for Chinese enterprises under such circumstances. In the case, Baosteel alleviated the unfavorable situation in iron ore trade and achieved win-win cooperation with Vale by joint investments, exploitation of opponent’s demand, and improving supply chain efficiency. Finally, this paper points out that the core challenge for China and Brazil to accept local currency settlement under the asymmetric economic and trade relationship is how to maintain and increase the use value of the large amount of Offshore RMB(CNH) held by Brazil, and gives policy suggestions for China.The innovation of this article lies in three aspects: First, by analyzing the economic dependence relationship between China and Brazil, which are two characteristic developing countries, it expands the research object range of economic dependence theory beyond the past focus on developed countries or between developed and developing countries. Second, this article transcends the traditional view and considers the Sino-Brazilian economic and trade relations from the perspective of coexistence of cooperation and competition, instead of only complementarity, which adds to the existing research on Sino-Brazilian economic and trade relations and has more practical significance under the current international situation with more conflicts and challenges. Third, this paper discusses hot topics in current Sino-Brazilian economic and trade relations such as iron ore trade and local currency settlement, which has significant epic meaning.
