货币政策传导机制是指中央银行从运用货币政策工具到实现政策目标的过程，表现为“政策工具→中介目标→最终目标”的传导路径。该过程传导效率的高低，直接决定了中央银行能否有效实现最终的经济目标。由于我国金融市场分割，且在利率体系中，存在货币市场利率与存贷款基准利率的“双轨制”问题，直接导致了短期操作目标到中长期中介目标的传导梗塞。2013年，人民银行正式出台LPR，其目的就是取代贷款基准利率，让其在贷款定价中发挥基准作用。然而，新出台的LPR市场化程度明显不够，各报价行主要参照不灵活的贷款基准利率定价，导致LPR长期与贷款基准利率同向同幅度波动，而与货币市场利率相关性弱，严重损害了货币政策的利率传导效率。为解决长期以来的利率“双轨”问题，2019年8月，人民银行推动LPR改革，建立与MLF这一中期政策利率相挂钩的新形成机制，对LPR形成方式加以优化。本文聚焦于LPR新机制传导路径的变化，并基于未来市场化LPR演进的视角，提出两点假设：第一，LPR改革后的新形成机制能够有效提升货币政策利率传导效率，达到政策预期效果；第二，LPR的“利率锚”可在未来转化为市场利率，利率传导效率将会得到进一步提高。针对假设一，本文采用OLS回归模型、断点回归形式下的固定效应模型、TVP-VAR模型，对货币政策传导的第二、第三阶段的效率进行检验；针对假设二，利用VAR模型研究何种市场化LPR的“利率锚”满足要求。本文研究发现：第一，LPR改革前，贷款基准利率为贷款利率的主要影响因素，在LPR改革后，货币市场利率向贷款市场利率的传导效率显著提高，打破了0.9倍贷款基准利率隐形下限，且改革效果随时间逐步增强。第二，LPR改革后，显著提高了贷款利率向实体经济变量的传导效率，货币政策外部时滞明显缩短。第三，若未来市场化LPR阶段的“利率锚”由MLF利率转换为货币市场利率，选择DR007为最佳。本文既在理论上丰富了中国式LPR现代化传导机制认识，提出LPR改革过程中需要经历的三个阶段，同时在实践上补充LPR改革效果的实证评估，并提供未来LPR利率锚的选择。本文建议，一要继续深化LPR“利率锚”改革；二要完善政策利率体系建设，进一步培育基准利率；三要提高LPR报价的参考性；四要协同推进存款利率市场化，完善商业银行FTP机制。

The monetary policy transmission mechanism refers to the process from the application of monetary policy tools to the realization of policy objectives by the central bank, which is expressed in the transmission path of "policy tools→intermediary objectives→final objectives". The efficiency of this process directly determines whether the central bank can effectively achieve the final economic objectives. In 2013, the PBoC formally introduced LPR to replace the benchmark lending rate and allow it to play a benchmark role in loan pricing. In 2013, the PBoC formally introduced LPR with the aim of replacing the benchmark lending rate and allowing it to play a benchmark role in loan pricing. However, the newly introduced LPR is obviously not market-oriented enough, and the quoting banks mainly refer to the inflexible benchmark lending rate for pricing, resulting in the LPR fluctuating in the same direction and at the same range as the benchmark lending rate for a long time, while the correlation with money market rates is weak, which seriously undermines the efficiency of interest rate transmission of monetary policy. In order to solve the long-standing interest rate "dual track" problem, in August 2019, the PBoC promoted LPR reform, establishing a mechanism linked to the MLF, a medium-term policy rate, to optimize the way LPR is formed.This paper focuses on the changes in the transmission path of the new LPR mechanism and puts forward two hypotheses based on the future evolution of market-based LPR: first, the new mechanism after the LPR reform can effectively improve the efficiency of monetary policy interest rate transmission and achieve the expected policy effect; second, the "interest rate anchor" of LPR can be transformed into market interest rate in the future, which will further improve the efficiency of interest rate transmission. Second, the "interest rate anchor" of LPR can be transformed into market interest rate in the future, and the interest rate transmission efficiency will be further improved. For hypothesis one, this paper uses OLS, fixed-effects model in the form of breakpoint regression and TVP-VAR model to test the efficiency of the second and third stages of monetary policy transmission; for hypothesis two, the VAR model is used to study which market-oriented LPR "interest rate anchors" meet the requirements. This paper finds that: first, before the LPR reform, the benchmark lending rate was the main influencing factor of the lending rate, and after the LPR reform, the transmission efficiency of the money market rate to the lending market rate was significantly improved, breaking the invisible lower limit of 0.9 times the benchmark lending rate, and the reform effect gradually increased over time. Second, after the LPR reform, the transmission efficiency of loan interest rates to real economy variables is significantly improved, and the external time lag of monetary policy is significantly shortened. Third, if the "interest rate anchor" in the future market-oriented LPR phase is changed from MLF rate to money market rate, DR007 is the best choice. This paper not only enriches the theoretical understanding of the modernized transmission mechanism of LPR in China, but also proposes three stages to be experienced in the process of LPR reform, and at the same time complements the empirical evaluation of the effect of LPR reform in practice, and provides the choice of future LPR interest rate anchors. This paper suggests, first, to continue to deepen the reform of the LPR "interest rate anchor", improve the flexibility and volatility of the MLF offer, and shift the anchor to the market-based interest rate in due course; second, to improve the construction of the policy interest rate system and further cultivate the benchmark interest rate; third, to improve the reference nature of the LPR offer; fourth, to promote the marketization of deposit interest rates in concert and improve the FTP mechanism for commercial banks.