人口老龄化是全世界共同面对的问题，但是中国老龄化的情况却比其他国家规模更大、速度更快。根据政府预测，到2035年，中国估计有4亿人将是60岁及以上，占人口的30%。中国自从2001年已进入老龄化社会（65岁以上人口超过7%），但短短21年时间65岁以上人口已经超过14%，标志深度老龄化，其他欧美国家平均至少40年才能达到同样程度。住作为人类生活基本需求，同时住房市场作为国民经济重要支柱之一，所以无论从社会、经济、政治等层面上，房地产业一直都受到各界关注。因此了解人口老龄化如何影响房价具有重要的现实意义。为了能全面了解两者之间的关系和背后的原理，本文通过相关文献和理论分析，结合现实数据进行实证研究。其中在理论方面，在原有的生命周期理论和世代交叠模型上，本文维持代表个体生命的两时期（青年与老年），但是新增遗赠动机以符合现时大部分老人只有一个小孩，其资产在未来由同一名孩子全部继承。本文使用2011年至2021年中国31个省级行政区（不包含香港、澳门、台湾）作为研究样本，使用面板数据固定效应模型进行回归分析，探究地区老龄化程度对住房消费的影响，结果显示老年抚养比对住宅商品房平均销售价格存在显著的促进作用，即老龄化程度越高，地区住房消费成本越高。该结论在更换核心解释变量、改变固定效应、改变标准误处理方式等稳健性检验后仍然成立。其次，由于我国国土辽阔、区域差异大，不同地区有各自独特的发展情况。本文根据中国国家统计局三大地带划分标准进行划分，发现老龄化程度对住房消费的促进作用仅在东部地区体现，而在中部地区与西部地区并不显著。为了进一步探究老龄化程度对住房消费的影响是否会随着地区老龄化程度和经济发展水平的不断增长而变化，透过异质性分析显示，老年抚养比对住宅商品房平均销售价格的促进作用仅在高老年抚养比组、高经济发展水平组体现。最后根据理论机制以及实证结果，本文主要从人口结构、房屋规划、地方政策等三方面对人口老龄化和房地产行业提出若干政策建议。例如在人口结构方面，政府可以再进一步甚至全面放开生育政策；在房屋规划方面，政府应该鼓励地产商多发展适合老人居住的户型，并兴建相应的配套设施，建立宜居的老人社区；地方政策方面则需要因地制宜，同时可以适当发展老龄经济。
Population aging is a common problem worldwide, but China is aging on a larger scale and at a faster pace than other countries. According to government projections, by 2035, an estimated 400 million people in China will be 60 years old or above, accounting for 30% of the population. China has been an aging society since 2001 (more than 7% of the population over 65), but in just 21 years the population over 65 has already exceeded 14%, marking deep aging, with other European and American countries taking at least 40 years on average to reach the same level. Housing as a basic need of human life, and at the same time the housing market as one of the important pillars of the national economy, so the real estate industry has always received attention from all walks of life, no matter on a social, economic or political level. Therefore, it is of great practical importance to understand how the aging of population affects the housing price. In order to have a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the two and the principles behind it, this paper conducts an empirical study through relevant literature and theoretical analysis, combined with realistic data. Among the theoretical aspects, on the original life-cycle theory and the overlapping generations model, this paper maintains the two periods representing the life of an individual (youth and old age), but adds a bequest motive to match the fact that most elderly people nowadays have only one child and their assets will be inherited in full by the same child in the future. This paper uses 31 provincial-level administrative regions of China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) from 2011 to 2021 as the research sample and uses a panel data fixed effects model for regression analysis to explore the impact of regional aging on housing consumption, and the results show that there is a significant contribution of the elderly dependency ratio to the average sales price of residential commercial housing, i.e., the higher the degree of aging, the higher the regional housing consumption cost the higher the cost of regional housing consumption. This conclusion still holds after the robustness tests of replacing the core explanatory variables, changing the fixed effects, and changing the standard error treatment. Second, due to the vast territory and regional differences in China, different regions have their own unique development. In this paper, according to the classification criteria of the three major zones of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, we find that the promotion effect of aging degree on housing consumption is only reflected in the eastern region, while it is not significant in the central and western regions. In order to further investigate whether the effect of aging on housing consumption changes with the increasing degree of aging and economic development, heterogeneity analysis shows that the promotion effect of the elderly dependency ratio on the average sales price of residential housing is only found in the high elderly dependency ratio group and the high economic development level group. Finally, based on the theoretical mechanism as well as the empirical results, this paper puts forward several policy recommendations on population aging and real estate industry mainly from three aspects: population structure, housing planning, and local policies. For example, in terms of demographic structure, the government can further or even fully liberalize the fertility policy; in terms of housing planning, the government should encourage real estate developers to develop more household types suitable for the elderly and build corresponding supporting facilities to establish a livable community for the elderly; in terms of local policies, the government needs to adapt to local conditions, and at the same time, it can appropriately develop the aging economy.
