股票市场的强有效性建立在诸多严格的假设基础上,然而大多数资本证券市场都存在有效性不足的问题,从而导致理想的资产定价模型失效,这也间接导致了诸多市场异象的存在。资产增长效应是其中经典的市场异象之一,其反映了股价在未来一段时间内随公司滞后期资产的增加而下降的现象。尽管这一现象存在于国外诸多证券市场中,但目前的研究多数局限于总资产增长效应与成熟资本市场中。对于我国股票市场是否存在显著的资产增长效应?不同性质的资产变化对中国股票的收益率是否有着不同的影响?以及造成不同性质资产增长异象的成因又是什么?这些问题都值得深入探究。 本文收集了2002-2022年中国A股上市公司的相关数据。利用分组做差法、Fama-MacBeth回归、事件研究法等多种实证研究方法,在验证中国A股市场存在总资产增长效应的基础上,根据资产性质差异和资产负债表的勾稽关系,对总资产进行拆分,构建出由股票/债务融资人驱动的净经营资产增长率(NOAGrowth)和企业经营参与者驱动的经营增长(OpeGrowth)等核心指标,分析不同性质的资产增长率对股票收益率的预测效果。在一系列的资产变化率中,本文不仅找到了比总资产增长率更加有效的解释变量,还发现了与传统的总资产增长效应相反的市场异象因子。最后,本文从多个不同的维度对上述现象的成因进行探究。 本文实证结果表明,中国A股市场显著存在总资产增长效应与净经营资产增长效应,且净经营资产增长效应强于总资产增长效应。企业经营相关参与者提供的经营增长不仅能够正向预测企业的未来业绩,且与股票持有收益率呈正相关关系。因此在剔除经营参与者提供的部分经营资产增长后,相较于总资产增长率,净经营资产增长率对股票收益率的解释效果更好。同时,本文从企业经营、投资者行为和分析师误差三个角度出发,论证了“错误定价理论”对中国不同性质资产增长效应的可解释性。
The strong efficiency of the stock market is built on numerous strict assumptions. However, the majority of capital securities markets often suffer from inefficiency problems, which indirectly leads to the existence of various market anomalies. Asset growth effect is one of the classic market anomalies, reflecting the decline of stock price with the increase of the company‘s lagging assets in the future period of time. Although this phenomenon has been shown to exist in many overseas stock markets, most of the current research is limited to the total asset growth effect and mature capital markets. Is there a significant asset growth effect in the Chinese stock market? Do different types of asset changes have different impacts on the stock returns? What are the causes of the anomalies in different types of asset growth? These questions are worth exploring in depth. This paper collects the relevant data of China‘s A-share listed companies from 2002 to 2022. Based on verifying the total asset growth effect, the total assets are divided according to the different nature of assets and the articulation of balance sheet. The core indexes such as “NOAGrowth” driven by financiers and “OpeGrowth” driven by operating participants are constructed to analyze the prediction effect of different asset growth rates on stock returns. Among a series of asset growth rates, this paper not only finds more effective explanatory variables than the total asset growth rate, but finds an anomalous factor that is contrary to the traditional total asset growth effect. Finally, this study explores the causes of these phenomena from several different dimensions. The research results show that there are significant total asset growth effect and net operating asset growth effect in the Chinese A-share market, and the net operating asset growth effect is stronger than the total asset growth effect. Operating growth provided by corporate operation-related participants can predict a company‘s future performance and is positively correlated with stock returns. Therefore, after excluding the part of asset growth provided by operating participants, the explanatory effect of net operating asset growth rate on stock returns is better. Simultaneously, this study demonstrates the "mispricing theory" for the interpretability of different types of asset growth effects from the perspectives of corporate operations, investor behaviors, and analyst errors.