新能源汽车被广泛认为是未来汽车产业发展的重要方向之一，在全球经济快速发展和汽车行业竞争加剧的背景下，发展新能源汽车不仅有利于缓解能源和环境问题，同时也有助于提高我国的科技创新水平，增强国家产业实力。我国高度重视新能源汽车发展，将其确立为国家战略。同时，政策对新能源汽车产业的影响不容忽视，政策的实施不仅有助于新能源汽车企业提高市场竞争力和技术创新水平，还为新能源汽车产业链上的相关产业提供了发展机会和推动力。因此，探究政策的颁布对新能源汽车行业及其产业链的影响，具有重要的现实意义。本文利用事件研究法，以新能源汽车相关政策事件为研究对象，选取了2014年至2022年国家层面颁布的33个新能源汽车行业政策作为事件样本，以政策颁布的时间作为事件发生日，以新能源汽车产业链上游、中游、下游共计62只样本股作为研究样本，以沪深300指数作为市场收益率指数，选取市场模型作为计算预期正常收益率的方法，进而利用Stata分析工具得到样本股在事件窗口期内的平均异常收益率（AAR）、累计平均异常收益率（CAAR），并进行显著性检验，验证政策的颁布对新能源汽车产业链股票价格的影响是否具有统计学意义上的显著性。在此基础上，构建面板数据回归模型，进一步验证政策事件的影响与异常收益率之间的关系。本文的核心内容是，基于事件研究法建立实证模型，通过定量与定性相结合的方式分析政策事件对股价的影响。结果表明：新能源汽车行业政策的颁布确实会对新能源汽车产业链上市公司的股价产生影响，政策事件会为新能源汽车产业链上市公司股价带来正向的异常收益率，同时，产业链内上、中、下游不同环节受到影响程度不同，其中上游最为显著。本文的研究丰富了政策颁布对行业上市公司股价影响的研究，并从产业链的角度，探究了行业政策事件对其上下游行业产生的影响，提出了一个新的研究视角，对学术界、政策制定者、相关上市公司和二级市场投资者具有一定的参考价值。
New energy vehicles (NEVs) are widely regarded as one of the important directions for the future development of the automotive industry. The impact of policies on the NEV industry cannot be ignored. The implementation of policies not only helps NEV enterprises improve their market competitiveness and technological innovation level, but also provides development opportunities and impetus for related industries in the NEV industry chain. Therefore, exploring the impact of policy promulgation on the NEV industry and its industry chain is of great practical significance.In this paper, the event study method is used, taking NEV-related policy events as the research object. A total of 33 NEV policies issued at the national level from 2014 to 2022 were selected as event samples. A total of 62 sample stocks in the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the NEV industry chain were selected as research samples. Market Model was selected as the method for calculating Normal Return. Then, the Stata analysis tool was used to obtain the average abnormal return (AAR) and cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) of the sample stocks. Subsequently, a panel data regression model was established to investigate the relationship between policy event impacts and abnormal returns. The core content of this paper is to establish an empirical model based on the event study method and analyze the impact of policy events on stock prices through a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. The results show that the promulgation of NEV industry policies does indeed affect the stock prices in the NEV industry chain. Policy events will bring positive abnormal returns to the stock prices in the NEV industry chain. At the same time, the degree of impact on different links in the industry chain varies, with the upstream being the most significant.This paper enriches the research on the impact of industry policy on the stock prices of listed companies. Furthermore, this paper explores the impact of industry policy events on its upstream and downstream industries from the perspective of the industrial chain, proposing a new research perspective. Thus, it provides a valuable reference for academia, policy makers, relevant listed companies, and secondary market investors.
