供应链安全是国内外共同关心的重要问题，然而目前学界在国家层面对供应链安全的定量研究仍然十分欠缺。本文首先提出了供应链安全概念的三个维度，即内向安全、外向安全、系统安全。接着，本文提出同时考虑经济、政治、地理和行业因素的供应链安全的测算框架，并使用全球中间品贸易投入产出数据、联合国大会投票数据和地理距离数据，对65个主要国家1995-2018年供应链安全水平及其演变进行测算比较，弥补了对供应链安全水平测算方式的量化研究。结果发现，在过去20多年间全球供应链安全呈现“东升西降、西强东弱”的格局演变，美国、中国是目前供应链安全水平最高的两个国家，且中美关系是影响两国供应链安全水平的重要因素。其次，本文基于供应链安全的测算结果，实证检验了供应链安全的互动机制和影响因素。使用向量自回归模型（VAR）和固定效应模型（FE）回归，结果发现，对于不同国家，供应链安全的互动影响机制有显著差异。对于中国，供应链内向安全度和外向安全度已经进入一个相互加强的正循环阶段，提升供应链安全水平的关键在于扩大对外开放、提升科技创新能力和经济发展水平。接着，本文实证检验了在经济不确定性上升的背景下，供应链安全水平对经济增长的影响。使用固定效应模型和双重差分模型（DID）回归，结果发现，对于高收入国家，供应链安全可以有效对冲经济不确定性对经济增长的负向影响，而对于中低收入国家，该效果并不明显。该结论表明，伴随着一国经济发展水平的提高，供应链安全的重要性也在同步上升。进而，本文探讨在后疫情时代供应链安全目标的实现路径。构造不确定性条件下各国参与全球供应链的决策模型，发现全球治理路径优于跨国合作路径，优于自给自足路径。因此，成立国际供应链稳定基金（ISF），有助于促进各国合作、推动全球化深入并实现帕累托最优。最后，本文使用国别案例和行业分析的方法，探究供应链安全的演进历程和争端成因。首先梳理了二战以后中国、美国、德国三国供应链安全的演进历程，接着选取芯片行业和钢铁行业作为典型案例，分析供应链安全问题的产生原因与解决机制，基于此对中国参与全球供应链分工提出政策建议。
Supply chain security is an important issue of common concern both domestically and internationally, however, quantitative research on supply chain security at the national level is still lacking. This article first proposes three dimensions of the concept of supply chain security, namely inward security, outward security, and system security. Then, this article proposes a measurement framework of supply chain security that simultaneously considers economic, political, geographical and industrial factors. Subsequently, we use TiVA (Trade in Value Added) data, UN General Assembly voting data and Gravity data to measure and compare the supply chain security levels of 65 major countries from 1995-2018. The results reveal that the evolution of supply chain security has shown a pattern of "rising in the East and declining in the West, strong in the West and weak in the East" in the past two decades. The United States and China are the two countries with the highest level of supply chain security at present, and the relationship between China and the United States is an important factor affecting the level of supply chain security of both countries.Secondly, this article empirically tests the interactive mechanisms and influencing factors of supply chain security using vector autoregressive model (VAR) and fixed-effects model (FE) regression methods. We find that the interaction mechanism of supply chain security is significantly different for different countries. For China, inward supply chain security and outward supply chain security affect each other positively, and the key to improve supply chain security lies in expanding openness, improving R&D capacity and economic development.Then, this article discusses supply chain security in the context of economic uncertainty. Using fixed effects model and double difference model (DID), we empirically test the effect of the supply chain security level on a country‘s economic growth under uncertainty. The results show that for high-income countries, the supply chain security level significantly contributes to their economic growth under uncertainty, while for low- and middle-income countries, this effect is not apparent. Further, this article explores the path to achieve the goal of supply chain security in the post-epidemic era. We construct a decision model for countries‘ participation in GSCs under uncertainty and compare the equilibrium results under three paths: self-sufficiency, cross-country cooperation, and global governance. This article finds that global governance is better than transnational cooperation and better than self-sufficiency in terms of overall social welfare gains. We argue that the establishment of the International Supply Chain Stabilization Fund (ISF) can help promote international cooperation, facilitate deeper globalization, and achieve Pareto optimality.
