上世纪九十年代的分税制改革和近几十年来地方政府主导重产业投资的经济发展模式,造成了我国地方政府财权、事权不匹配的现象,催生了一批具有中国特色的城投公司。城投公司为我国经济建设和城市化发展做出了突出的贡献,但也伴随着不断扩张的债务规模和不断增长的系统性风险。监管部门对城投平台的监管政策随着内外部宏观环境的变化而变化。2014年 “43号文”对地方政府和城投债的关系进行分割,监管部门出台各种政策规范地方政府的融资,“开前门、堵后门”,进行了两轮地方政府隐形债务上报和化解,隔离城投债务与地方政府债务的关系。目前城投平台的债务和债券已经成为银行、基金、证券公司等资管公司的主要资产,城投债违约的高传染性,是机构持有城投“信仰”的理由,也是化解债务的难点。从性质上来说,土地财政的模式、GDP导向的政府工作模式以及地方政府财权和事权不匹配的问题是城投债存在的根本原因,但采取过于强硬的手段解决隐形债务问题,可能会加剧债务风险的爆发。已有的研究在地方债制度建设和城投债定价分析方面较多,但对于城投债实际管理方法研究较少。城投风险方面的研究,聚焦在经济欠发达地区的较多,对于经济中上游地区的关注较少。本报告将通过对具体案例进行研究,重点放在更容易成为风险累积区域但更容易被忽略的经济中上游地区,并且提出通过加强平台管理降低地区风险的方案。本报告计划以城投平台债券风险分析框架为基础,采用文献调研法和案例分析法等研究方法,对山东某城投债进行风险分析,探索债务化解的路径。首先,进行国内外文献的综述,对城投平台相关概念进行界定,提出城投平台债务的风险分析框架;其次,运用统计分析、报表分析等研究方法,对一个典型的山东区县级平台的历史融资行为和融资现状进行分析;然后,结合具体案例解释和说明平台的风险点,对城投平台的债务风险成因进行分析;最后理清城投债融资现状,识别城投债风险,并且提出相关建议,力争在不发生系统性风险的情况下,运用合适的政策和工具,平稳解决债务问题,为未来中国经济的发展释放空间和活力。
The tax sharing reform in the 1990s and the economic development mode of heavy industry investment led by local government in recent decades have resulted in the mismatching phenomenon of financial power and administrative power of local government in China, which has spawned a number of urban investment companies with Chinese characteristics. Urban investment corporation has made outstanding contributions to China‘s economic construction and urbanization development, but it is also accompanied by ever-expanding debt scale and ever-increasing systemic risks. Regulatory authorities‘ regulatory policies on URBAN investment platforms change with the changes of internal and external macro environment. In 2014, "Document No. 43" separated the relationship between local governments and URBAN investment bonds. Regulatory authorities issued various policies to regulate the financing of local governments, "opening the front door and blocking the back door", and conducted two rounds of local government invisible debt reporting and resolving, isolating the relationship between urban investment bonds and local government debt.At present, the debt and bond of URBAN investment platform have become the main assets of banks, funds, securities companies and other capital management companies. The high infectivity of urban investment bond default is the reason for institutions to hold the "belief" of urban investment, and also the difficulty to resolve the debt. From the nature, the land finance model, the GDP-oriented government work model, and the mismatch between local government financial and administrative powers are the fundamental reasons for the existence of urban investment bonds, but taking too strong measures to solve the hidden debt problem may aggravate the debt risk of outbreak. There are many existing studies on the construction of local debt system and the pricing analysis of urban investment bonds, but there are few studies on the actual management methods of urban investment bonds. Research on urban investment risks focuses more on economically underdeveloped areas, and pays less attention to the upper and middle reaches of the economy. Through the study of specific cases, this report will reveal why the middle and upper reaches of the economy are more likely to become risk accumulation areas but are more likely to be ignored, and propose a plan to reduce regional risks by strengthening platform management.Based on the risk analysis framework of URBAN investment bonds, this report adopts literature research method and case analysis method to analyze the risk of urban investment bonds and explore the path of debt resolution, hoping to provide some reference for the healthy development of financial market and local economy. The first part reviews domestic and foreign literature, defines urban investment bonds, puts forward the risk analysis framework of urban investment bonds, and sorts out regulatory documents and policies. The second part uses statistical analysis, statement analysis and other research methods to analyze the financing status of urban investment platforms in different regions; The third part, combined with specific cases to explain and explain the development status and existing problems of urban investment bond; The fourth part analyzes whether the urban investment bond defaults and how to control the disorderly growth of urban investment bond financing; Finally, according to the statistical results and analysis, the current situation of urban investment bond financing is clarified, the risks of urban investment bond are identified, and relevant suggestions are put forward, in an effort to use appropriate policies and tools to solve the debt problem smoothly without systemic risks, so as to release space and vitality for China‘s economic development in the future.