习近平总书记在全面深化改革会议上，强调了税收在国家治理中的基础性、支持性、保障性作用，税收基础理论创新由此进入了新时代。降低增值税比重是完善现代税收制度的重要目标，但通过减税降费降低增值税比重不仅仅有降税率一种方式，近年来，财政部及国家税务总局采用多种方式，如增值税留抵退税、增值税即征即退、增值税加计抵减等多种方式，因此，本文基于2018年5月1日实施的增值税税率下调的自然实验，建立分析框架，尝试从转嫁方向、转嫁比例、转嫁时间等维度刻画增值税税负转嫁的过程和特点。研究假设，增值税税率下调导致的税负优惠由企业所有者、企业员工和中间投入供应商三方享有，改革当期的税负转嫁比例和中长期的税负转嫁比例并不完全一致。研究结果显示，增值税税率下调引起了下调行业税负转嫁比例减少，行业实际受益小于理论上计算出的税负下降比例，此时，精准的结构化减税效果实际上减弱了，需要在未来政策制定时予以考虑。具体结论如下：（1）增值税降税率政策对于企业生产经营存在显著影响，降税负收益主要由降税率所在行业和行业员工共同享受，在政策冲击当期，企业员工享受较多的降税负收益，而在政策冲击滞后两期，降税率所在行业享受较多的降税负优惠，员工享受的比例逐渐回落。（2）上游供应商分担的降税率收益比例较小，在滞后一期达到最高峰。（3）增值税降税率给企业生产经营带来的影响，与增值税税率上升存在较大差异。（4）不同时期的税负下调分担比例并不一致，在改革当期，税率下调的收益由企业主、企业员工和上游供应商共同享有，其中企业员工享有最大的降税负收益，占比78.888%，企业主只享受17.498%的降税负收益，上游供应商享有3.614%的降税负收益。在改革滞后两期，进一步拉长反应时间后，员工仅享有11.711%的税率下调收益，中间投入供应商的税率下调分担比例下降为3.617%，企业主享有84.673%的降税负收益。可见，如果政策的调整时间充足，企业会享有大部分降税负收益，其次是企业员工。企业生产经营的变化，根据企业利润率、企业中间投入占比、企业员工平均工资水平、企业劳动密集型程度、企业在行业内的市场份额而有所不同。本研究为全面理解增值税减税对税负转嫁的影响作用提供了参考，亦为研究该影响作用的传导机制提供了部分思路，也为国家制定政策来促进完善现代税收制度，提高直接税比重，扎实推进减税降费提供了相应依据。

Reducing the proportion of value-added tax is an important goal for improving the modern tax system. However, reducing the proportion of value-added tax through tax reduction and fee reduction is not only a way to reduce tax rates. In recent years, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation have adopted various methods, such as value-added tax retention and refund, value-added tax immediate collection and refund, and value-added tax additional deduction. Therefore, based on the natural experiment of reducing value-added tax rates implemented on May 1, 2018, this article establishes an analytical framework, Attempt to depict the process and characteristics of value-added tax burden shift from dimensions such as shift direction, shift proportion, and shift time. The research assumes that the tax incentives resulting from the reduction of value-added tax rates are enjoyed by three parties: enterprise owners, enterprise employees, and intermediate input suppliers. The tax burden shift ratio during the reform period and the tax burden shift ratio in the medium to long term are not completely consistent.The research results show that the reduction of value-added tax rate has led to a decrease in the proportion of tax burden shift in the industry, and the actual benefits of the industry are less than the theoretically calculated proportion of tax burden reduction. At this point, the precise structured tax reduction effect has actually weakened, and needs to be considered in future policy formulation. The specific conclusions are as follows:(1) The policy of reducing value-added tax rates has a significant impact on the production and operation of enterprises. The benefits of reducing tax burden are mainly shared by the industry in which the tax rate is reduced and industry employees. During the policy impact period, enterprise employees enjoy more of the benefits of reducing tax burden. However, during the two lagging periods of policy impact, the industry in which the tax rate is reduced enjoys more tax burden reduction benefits, and the proportion enjoyed by employees gradually decreases. (2) The proportion of tax reduction benefits shared by upstream suppliers is relatively small, reaching its peak in a lag period. (3) There is a significant difference in the impact of reducing value-added tax rates on enterprise production and operation compared to the increase in value-added tax rates. (4) The proportion of tax burden reduction in different periods is not consistent. In the current reform period, the benefits of tax rate reduction are shared by enterprise owners, enterprise employees, and upstream suppliers. Among them, enterprise employees enjoy the largest tax burden reduction benefits, accounting for 78.888%. Enterprise owners only enjoy 17.498% of the tax burden reduction benefits, while upstream suppliers enjoy 3.614% of the tax burden reduction benefits. After two periods of lagging reform and further prolonging the reaction time, employees only enjoy 11.711% of the tax rate reduction benefits, while the tax rate reduction share of intermediate input suppliers decreases to 3.617%, and business owners enjoy 84.673% of the tax burden reduction benefits. It can be seen that if the policy adjustment time is sufficient, enterprises will enjoy the majority of the benefits from tax reduction, followed by employees. The changes in production and operation of enterprises vary depending on their profit margin, proportion of intermediate investment, average salary level of employees, degree of labor intensity, and market share within the industry.This study provides a reference for a comprehensive understanding of the impact of value-added tax reduction on tax burden shift, and also provides some ideas for studying the transmission mechanism of this impact. It also provides a corresponding basis for the country to formulate policies to promote the improvement of modern tax systems, increase the proportion of direct taxes, and solidly promote tax reduction and fee reduction.