北方城镇清洁供暖技术经济分析对供热行业实现双碳目标和可持续发展具有重要意义，本文以此为题开展研究。基于对大量供热企业调研数据的聚类分析得出主要成果如下：（1）采用多案例对比研究方法，提出了一套完整的案例分析指标，从项目特征、技术能耗指标、成本构成和经济性评价指标、碳排放强度等维度开展北方城镇清洁供暖技术和经济性对比分析，并总结了各部分指标的数据获取和计算方法。（2）基于对文献调研和供热企业统计结果得出各类清洁供暖技术推广应用现状，得出我国北方城镇热源结构并对各类技术的未来发展情况进行预测。（3）结合122家供暖企业经营数据，通过聚类分析总结了现有的集中供暖企业经营性指标参数特征：包括供暖购入和使用的能源价格、供热价格、成本收入构成等。按照华北、华东、华中、西北、东北、京津冀、南方七个区域对比分析了各类指标参数的差异性。（4）根据以上研究结果，分析了不同清洁供暖项目的经营性指标差异，针对清洁供暖技术项目投资和运行提出建议。以清洁燃煤、燃气为主的集中供暖企业的供暖能源成本价格遵循市场规律变化，供暖收费价格则由政府制定和调整，导致部分地区供暖收费价格长期低于能源价格，对于现有清洁供暖的集中供暖企业来说，厘清上下游供热价格矛盾关系，建议政府合理制定热价和确定补贴，是投资运行的重点。对于以可再生能源为主的其他类清洁供暖项目而言，项目运行成本较低，但初投资巨大，依赖政策补贴和高比例银行贷款。建议选择合适的运营模式如PPP模式、合同能源管理模式等，在市场准入、价格制定方面也提出了相应建议。
The technical and economic analysis of clean heating in northern cities and towns is of great significance for the heating industry to realize the double-carbon goal and sustainable development, and this paper carries out a research on this topic.Based on the cluster analysis of a large number of heating enterprises‘ research data, the main conclusions are as follows:(1) Adopting a multi-case comparative research method, a complete set of case study indicators is proposed to carry out a comparative analysis of the technology and economy of clean heating in northern cities and towns from the dimensions of project characteristics, technology and energy consumption indexes, cost composition and economic evaluation indexes, and carbon emission intensity, and the methods of obtaining and calculating the data for the indicators in each part are summarized.(2) Based on the results of literature research and statistics of heating enterprises, the current status of promotion and application of various types of clean heating technologies, the structure of heat sources in northern cities and towns of China, and the prediction of the future development of various types of technologies are made.(3) Combined with the operational data of 122 heating enterprises, we summarize the characteristics of the existing centralized heating enterprises‘ operational index parameters through cluster analysis: including the energy prices purchased and used for heating, the price of heating, and the composition of cost and income. The differences in the parameters of various indicators were analyzed according to the comparison of seven regions: North China, East China, Central China, Northwest China, Northeast China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and South China.(4) Based on the results of the above study, the differences in the operational indicators of different clean heating projects are analyzed, and recommendations are made for the investment and operation of clean heating technology projects. The price of heating energy costs for centralized heating enterprises mainly based on clean coal and gas follows the changes of market laws, while the price of heating charges is set and adjusted by the government, resulting in the price of heating charges in some areas being lower than the energy price for a long time. For the existing centralized heating enterprises with clean heating, it is a key point for investment and operation to clarify the contradictory relationship between upstream and downstream heating prices, and to suggest that the government reasonably formulate the price of heat and determine the subsidies.For other types of clean heating projects based on renewable energy, the project running costs are low, but the initial investment is huge, relying on policy subsidies and a high proportion of bank loans. It is recommended to choose suitable operation modes such as PPP mode and contract energy management mode, etc. Corresponding recommendations are also made in terms of market access and price setting.
