随着经济和人口的快速增长，与日俱增的城市生活垃圾的处理已成为制约城市低碳化发展的重要因素。深圳市作为生活垃圾强制分类试点城市之一，建立了分类投放、分类收运和分类处理的全流程生活垃圾分类管理体系。本研究以深圳市宝安区为案例，构建了生活垃圾分类管理系统的物质流分析框架，用于量化生活垃圾管理系统的资源化潜力；结合IPCC指南，核算不同废物类别的碳排放因子和管理系统整体的碳排放特征，识别影响碳减排潜力的关键环节；采用情景分析法，评估未来5年生活垃圾分类管理系统的资源化利用率和碳减排潜力。主要的研究结论包括：（1）根据宝安区生活垃圾分类管理系统的生活垃圾产量和分类收运处理量，构建2016~2021年的物质流图，全面而准确地评估系统的回收利用与资源化潜力，发现生活垃圾中厨余类的比例最高，为57.71%，橡塑类和纸类次之；焚烧厂的混合垃圾的物理组成和理化性质受垃圾分类率和季节变化的影响。随着垃圾分类的推行，生活垃圾的总回收利用率从18.58%增加到35.44%，厨余垃圾的分类率从0%上升到34.3%。（2）核算了不同废物类别收运和处理的碳排放因子，并结合碳排放核算模型，对2016~2021年不同分类水平下宝安区生活垃圾分类管理系统的碳排放和碳减排效益进行了深入分析，发现从2016~2022年，垃圾分类管理系统的总碳排放从-1.19万吨CO2上升到11.51万吨CO2；垃圾收运环节中89.02%~98.47%的碳排放来源于其他垃圾的中转和运输；垃圾处理环节的碳避免排放主要来源于可回收物的回收和资源化利用。（3）通过参考深圳市生活垃圾管理规划方案和宝安区的生活垃圾管理经验，提出了4种分类管理情景S1~S4，通过分析不同情景下的物质流情况、碳排放水平和碳减排效益，发现与基准情景S1相比，保守情景S2、适度情景S3和乐观情景S4的碳减排量分别为72.01，173.84和260.66万吨CO2；碳减排效益主要来源于可回收物和厨余垃圾的资源化利用，可回收物再生利用的碳减排效益明显优于厨余垃圾的资源化利用；除S1情景外，情景S2~S4均可完成2026年的碳排放强度比2021年下降18%和26.85%的目标。

With the rapid growth of the economy and population, the disposal of increased municipal solid waste (MSW) has become an important factor restricting the low-carbon development of cities. As one of the pilot cities for mandatory classification of household waste, Shenzhen has established a full process management system for household waste classification, including classified deposition, collection, and treatment. This study takes Bao‘an District of Shenzhen City as a case study to construct a material flow analysis framework for MSW management system, used to quantify the resource utilization potential; Based on the IPCC Guidelines, carbon emission factors of different waste categories and overall carbon emission characteristics of MSW management system are calculated, and key links that affect emission-reducing potential are identified; Using scenario analysis method, the resource utilization rate and emission-reducing potential of MSW classification management system in the next 5 years are evaluated. The main conclusions include:(1) Based on the generation, classified collection and treatment of MSW in Bao‘an District, material flow analysis for 2016-2021 was constructed to comprehensively and accurately evaluate recycling and resource utilization potential. It was found that the proportion of food waste in domestic waste was the highest, at 57.71%, followed by rubber, plastic, and paper; The physical composition and physicochemical properties of mixed waste from incineration plants are influenced by classification rate and seasonal changes. With the implementation of waste classification, the recycling rate of domestic waste and kitchen waste increased from 18.58% to 35.44% and from 0% to 34.3%, respectively.(2) Carbon emission factors for the transportation and treatment of different waste categories were calculated, combined with carbon emission accounting models to conduct a deep analysis of carbon emissions and emission reduction benefits of MSW management system in Bao‘an District under different classification levels from 2016 to 2021. It was found that from 2016 to 2022, total carbon emissions of MSW management system increased from -11900 to 115100 tons of CO2; 89.02%~98.47% of carbon emissions in the garbage transportation process come from the transfer and transportation of mixed waste; The avoided emissions in the disposal process mainly come from the recycling and resource utilization of recyclables.(3) By referring to MSW management plan in Shenzhen and the experience of domestic waste management in Bao‘an District, four classified management scenarios S1~S4 were proposed. By analyzing the material flow situation, carbon emission level, and emission-reducing benefits under different scenarios, we found that compared with the baseline scenario S1, the emission reduction potential of conservative scenario S2, moderate scenario S3, and optimistic scenario S4 were 0.72, 1.74 and 2.61 million tons of CO2, respectively; The emission reduction benefits mainly come from the recycling of recyclables and kitchen waste, and the former has better emission-reducing benefits; Except for the S1 scenario, scenarios S2 to S4 can achieve the goals of reducing emissions intensity by 18% and 26.85% in 2026 compared to 2021.