随着我国经济经济增长以及居民财富的快速积累,以银行理财为代表的资管产品在过去二十年得到快速发展。快速扩张的理财规模满足了居民理财的需求,但同时形成了大量资管乱象,“影子银行”、“资金池”等不合规业务在此期间快速扩张,危害金融安全。2018年4月,一行两会一局联合印发《关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见》(简称“资管新规”),“资管新规”对银行理财产品从销售到管理各个环节做了新要求,银行理财产品不再承诺产品收益率,投资者收益将随市场波动而波动,银行理财产品的风险成为了发行机构和投资者不得不考虑的问题。过往文献对于银行理财风险问题的研究主要集中于商业银行风险承担的视角,较少从理财产品自身出发研究银行理财的风险问题,本文认为随着银行理财产品风险复位,从银行理财产品本身出发研究资管新规对银行理财风险的影响具有研究价值。本文选取招银理财、工银理财、宁银理财在2018年5月至2022年6月发行的净值化理财产品,通过非标资产估值方法在资管新规前后不发生变更这一特点构造广义二重差分模型的实验组和对照组,对资管新规对银行理财风险的影响进行研究。实证结果显示资管新规显著增加了银行理财的风险,为了保证结果的稳健性,本文通过平行趋势检验、更改样本区间、虚构政策发生时间、虚构实验组等方法证明结论的可靠性。本文进一步对资管新规对银行理财风险影响的机制进行分析,通过分析流动性效应变量和政策效应交互项系数,发现资管新规后银行理财的流动性对风险有促进作用。最后本文对资管新规对不同银行理财影响的异质性进行分析。本文研究发现:(1)资管新规显著增加了银行理财产品的风险;(2)资管新规增加了银行理财产品的流动性,通过流动性机制放大了银行理财的净值波动;(3)资管新规对高业绩基准、高起投金额、高开放频率的银行理财产品的风险影响更加显著。在上述结论的基础上,本文对政府、理财机构和投资者提出相关建议。
With the rapid growth of our country‘s economy and the quick accumulation of household wealth, wealth management products represented by bank financial products have experienced significant development in the past two decades. The rapid expansion of wealth management scale has met the financial needs of residents, but it has also given rise to numerous irregularities in asset management. During this period, non-compliant businesses such as "shadow banking" and "fund pools" expanded rapidly, posing risks to financial security.In April 2018, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions" (referred to as the "New Asset Management Regulations"). The "New Asset Management Regulations" introduced new requirements for various aspects of bank wealth management products, from sales to management. Bank wealth management products were no longer allowed to guarantee fixed rates of return, and investor earnings would fluctuate with market volatility. The risk of bank wealth management products became a crucial consideration for both issuing institutions and investors. Previous studies on the risk of bank wealth management mainly focused on the perspective of commercial banks‘ risk exposure, with fewer studies exploring the risk issues of wealth management products themselves. This article argues that with the reset of risk in bank wealth management products, it holds research value to investigate the impact of the New Asset Management Regulations on the risk of bank wealth management products starting from the products‘ intrinsic characteristics.This article examines the impact of the "New Asset Management Regulations" on the risk of bank wealth management products by selecting net-value wealth management products issued by China Merchants Bank Wealth Management, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Wealth Management, and Bank of Ningbo Wealth Management from May 2018 to June 2022. The study utilizes a generalized difference-in-differences model, taking advantage of the characteristic that the valuation method for non-standard assets did not change before and after the implementation of the new regulations, to construct experimental and control groups. Empirical results demonstrate that the "New Asset Management Regulations" significantly increased the risk of bank wealth management. To ensure the robustness of the findings, the study employs various methods, including parallel trend tests, altering sample intervals, simulating policy implementation times, and creating hypothetical experimental groups, to verify the reliability of the conclusions. The study further analyzes the mechanisms through which the "New Asset Management Regulations" influence the risk of bank wealth management. By examining liquidity effect variables and policy effect interaction coefficients, it is found that the regulations promote risk through the liquidity of bank wealth management products after their implementation. Finally, the article explores the heterogeneity of the impact of the "New Asset Management Regulations" on different bank wealth management products. The research reveals that: (1) the "New Asset Management Regulations" significantly increased the risk of bank wealth management products; (2) the regulations enhanced the liquidity of bank wealth management products, magnifying the net asset value fluctuations; and (3) the risk impact of the "New Asset Management Regulations" is more pronounced on bank wealth management products with high performance benchmarks, high initial investment amounts, and high openness frequency. Based on the above conclusions, the article presents relevant suggestions to the government, wealth management institutions, and investors.