气候变化将加剧高温对劳动生产率的负面影响，进而加剧对经济发展的威胁。明晰气候变化对劳动生产率及经济影响的规模及分布格局是制定有针对性的适应措施和合理减缓力度的前提。然而，以往研究多为国别研究，次国家尺度/省级尺度的影响规模和分布认识尚不充分；多仅考虑部门间人群差异，对部门内人群异质性考虑不足；缺乏对适应措施的讨论，导致无法回答气候变化对区域、人群差异化影响，及适应措施降低风险效果等关键问题。针对上述不足，本研究旨在省级尺度评估气候变化对劳动生产率及经济影响的规模及分布格局，识别决定影响的机理和关键因素，分析适应措施降低气候风险潜力，从而为中国制定有针对性的适应气候变化措施及合理减缓力度提供科学支撑。为此，本研究构建了“气候变化-健康-经济”跨系统影响评估框架，将适应措施纳入该框架；对传统动态CGE模型在耦合健康模型、细化劳动力人群两方面进行了拓展。研究发现：（1）温升程度越高，劳动生产率及经济损失越大。2100年，SSP245情景下，全国劳动生产率损失约为1.3%-1.7%，由此导致的GDP损失约为1.9%-4.2%。而在SSP126情景下，上述损失均可减少一半以上。（2）气候变化影响存在显著的区域差异，扩大地区发展差距。2100年，SSP245情景下各省份GDP损失区间为0.9%-7.3%。低纬度低收入地区经济损失最严重，GDP损失高出全国平均值0.7-2.0倍；高纬度地区及服务业发达的地区经济损失最小。（3）气候变化对行业和人群的影响也存在不同，劳动力密集型产业受影响较大。2100年，SSP245情景下该类产业损失约在3.0%-6.6%之间，远高于资本密集型产业；除低纬度地区非管理人群外，其他劳动者工资均会遭受负面影响，尤其是低纬度管理人群。（4）适应措施可大幅降低气候风险，减排可提高适应措施防护效果。2100年，采取制冷措施可减少GDP损失约21%-32%，调整工作时间约48%-67%；但不减排仅采取适应措施，GDP损失仍比较大，约为2.5%-3.5%；而同时采取减排和适应措施，可减少约94%的GDP损失。综合来看，建议适应与减排并重，大力推进适应措施部署；重点关注低纬度的低收入地区，推动适应资源向脆弱地区和行业倾斜。

Climate change will exacerbate the negative impact of heat on labour productivity, and thus exacerbate the threat to economic development. It is a prerequisite for designing the targeted adaptation measures and reasonable mitigation efforts to characterize the scale and distribution of the impact of climate change on labour productivity and the corresponding economic impact. However, most of the previous studies are country-specific, and the scale and distribution patterns of impacts at provincial scale in China are still not clear; most of the previous studies only considered the different impacts among inter-sectoral labours, but failed to deal with the intra-sectoral labours’ heterogeneity; most of the previous studies lack the consideration of adaptation measures, hereby the existing studies failed to answer these key questions: the differential impacts of climate change on regions and populations; the effects of adaptation measures on risk reduction.To address these shortcomings, this study aims to estimate the scale of heat impacts on labour productivity and the corresponding economic impact at the provincial scale and figure out the distribution patterns, identify the mechanisms and key factors determining the impacts, and evaluate the potential of adaptation measures to mitigate the climate change-related risk, so as to provide scientific support for the formulation of targeted climate change adaptation measures and reasonable mitigation efforts in China. To this end, this study constructs an assessment framework for the cross-system impact of “climate change - health – economy”, and incorporates adaptation measures into the framework; extends the traditional dynamic CGE model in terms of coupling with the health impact model, and detailed portrayal of the labor force. It is found that: (1) the larger temperature rise would lead to more severe impacts on labour productivity and the economy of climate change-related heat. By 2100, the national labour productivity loss is about 1.3%-1.7% under the SSP245 scenario, and the resulting GDP loss is about 1.9%-4.2%. Under the SSP126 scenario, the above losses can be reduced by more than half. (2) Large regional differences exist in the impacts of climate change, widening the regional development gap. By 2100, the range of GDP loss for provinces under the SSP245 scenario is 0.9%-7.3%. Low-income regions located in low latitudes would face the largest GDP losses, about 0.7-2 times higher than national loss; high-latitude regions and developed regions dominated by service industries suffer the most minor economic losses. (3) There are also differences in climate change impacts on sectors and labours, and labor-intensive industries are more affected, where the loss would be about 3.0%-6.6% by 2100 under the SSP245 scenario, much larger than that in capital-intensive industries. Except for the non-managed labours at low latitudes, the wages of all labours will be negatively affected, especially the managed labours at low latitudes. (4) Adaptation measures can mitigate significant loss, and carbon abatement can increase the mitigation capacity of adaptation measures. can reduce about 21.0%-31.6% of GDP loss, and shifting working hours can reduce about 48.0%-67.0% of GDP loss by the end of this century. However, without emission reduction and only taking adaptation measures, GDP loss is still relatively large, about 2.5%-3.5%. Taking both carbon abatement and adaptation measures can reduce GDP losses by 94%.In a comprehensive view, it is recommended that adaptation measures and mitigation measures should be given equal emphasis when tacking with climate change, and the deployment of adaptation measures be accelerated; focus on low-income regions at low latitudes, and allocate more resources towards vulnerable areas and economic sectors.