在全球电动汽车市场快速发展的驱动下，锂、钴、镍等锂电池关键材料面临巨量新增需求，其产业链中存在的供给高度集中、环境与社会影响大等潜在供给风险问题被放大，进而引发了原材料供需失衡、价格巨幅波动等一系列问题，对车辆电动化转型构成了严峻挑战。应对这一挑战的关键在于准确刻画锂电池全产业链物质社会代谢，有效识别关键材料供给风险，并制定系统的资源管理策略。本研究主要开展了以下工作：（1）提出了贸易网络耦合的物质流分析方法，以锂资源为重点对全球240个国家和地区1994-2021年的锂电池关键材料社会代谢流动进行了定量追踪；（2）分别开发了基于赫芬达尔-赫尔希曼指数耦合世界银行全球治理指标的供应侧风险量化模型、基于资源竞争指数原创指标体系的需求侧风险量化模型，对锂、钴、镍、锰四类锂电池关键材料的全球产业链开展了静态供给风险评估；（3）建立了自底向上的多技术耦合综合评估模型，以需求增长、市场结构革新、技术进步等要素作为多情景输入，从外部冲击影响和市场内生驱动两个维度揭示了锂电池关键材料供给风险的动态演化规律。研究发现:（1）全球锂资源生产和贸易代谢呈现出“最终消费广泛、流量高度集中、各国分工明确”的特点，代谢流量在1994-2021年间分别增长了9倍和17倍，并且80%以上集中在中国、澳大利亚、智利等前五大供应国;（2）锂电池关键材料产业链下游制造环节的供应侧风险指数比上游精炼和矿冶环节分别高10%和15%，其中钴产业链具有最高的整体供应侧风险。需求侧风险的主要来源为氢氧化锂、锂电池和碳酸锂等具有高供给竞争强度的商品；（3）在新冠疫情的外部冲击下，锂矿物为最大风险来源，其造成的供给约束会使得锂电池已有产能的释放效率和新增产能的建设效率分别下降14%和18%，这一影响的持续作用会进而造成2030年的全球电动汽车消费比基准情景下降19%。市场内生驱动的供给风险主要为供需增速不匹配导致的价格剧烈波动。面向全球71个主要锂矿项目产能分析表明，锂矿供给将于2025年达到325千吨锂当量，超过同年需求13%-48%，有效平抑2021年以来的锂价波动。应对供给风险的关键策略包括：建立产业信息共享机制以改善锂电池正极材料利用效率、完善报废电池锂材料回收体系以分散供给来源、构建以锂资源为核心的国际化锂电池关键材料交易平台以弱化市场内生风险。

Driven by the burgeoning global electric vehicle market, there has been a significant increase in demand for critical battery materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. This escalating demand has underscored potential supply risks, including highly concentrated supply and severe environmental and social impacts within the critical material industrial chain. These issues have propagated an imbalance between raw material supply and demand and led to considerable price volatility, thereby presenting formidable challenges to the progression towards transportation electrification. Addressing these challenges necessitates a precise depiction of the material metabolism across the entire industrial chain of lithium batteries, the effective identification of critical material supply risks, and the implementation of comprehensive resource management strategies.The following work was carried out in this study. (1) This study introduces a trade-linked material flow analysis method, quantitatively tracking the social metabolic flow of critical materials for lithium batteries across 240 countries and regions from 1994-2021, with a focus on lithium. (2) This study develops a supply-side risk quantification model based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman index in conjunction with the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicator, and a demand-side risk quantification model based on the novel index of resource competition. (3) A bottom-up, technology-mixed intergrated assessment model has been established, which uses demand growth, market structure innovation, and technological progress as multiple scenario inputs. This model elucidates the dynamic evolution of supply risks pertaining to critical materials for lithium batteries from two perspectives: exogenous impacts and endogenous market drivers.Results indicate that (1) the global lithium metabolic flow is characterized by “extensive final consumption, highly concentrated flow, and clear division of labor among countries”. Global lithium production and trade flow have increased 9 times and 17 times, respectively, from 1994 to 2021. Over 80% of the lithium metabolic flow is concentrated in the top five supply countries including China, Australia, Chile, etc. (2) The supply-side risk index for the downstream manufacturing stage of critical materials for lithium batteries is 10% and 15% higher than that of the upstream refining and mining stages, respectively. The supply-side risk of cobalt industry chain is the most pronounced. The primary source of demand-side risk stems from the intense competition within production of lithium hydroxide, lithium batteries and lithium carbonate. (3) Under exogenous shock by the COVID-19 pandemic, lithium minerals emerge as the most critical source of risk. The supply constraint caused by lithium minerals will make the releasing efficiency of existing capacity and the building efficiency of new capacity of lithium batteries decrease by 14% and 18%, respectively. The persistent effect of these impacts could cause a 19% drop in global electric vehicle sales in 2030, compared to the baseline scenario. The endogenous market-driven supply risk is primarily the price volatility induced by the discordance between supply and demand growth rates. Global supply from 71 lithium production projects will reach 325 kiloton lithium metallic equivalents in 2025, exceeding demand by 13%-48%. This surplus will effectively temper the lithium price volatility that erupted in 2021. To tackle supply risk of critical battery materials, several strategies are recommendated to be implemented, including the establishment of an industry information sharing mechanism to improve cathode material utilization efficiency, the improvement of the lithium recycling system to diversify supply sources, and the construction of an international trading platform for critical lithium battery materials with lithium resources as the core to mitigate endogenous market-driven risk.