工业部门是中国重要的二氧化碳与大气污染物排放源。在碳达峰、碳中和背景下，探究中国工业部门未来减污降碳协同路径及环境健康效益，对我国协同应对气候变化与大气污染具有重要意义。综合评估模型是开展未来碳减排研究的主要工具之一，但目前主流模型中一般将工业作为整体进行分析，缺少对工业各个行业、技术以及企业层面减排路径的评估。而在行业层面的减排路径及协同效益研究又相对独立和分散，尚未形成支撑双碳背景下工业减污降碳协同路径设计的技术方法体系。针对这一问题，本研究通过耦合综合评估模型、技术预测模型、排放清单模型、大气化学模型和健康效应模型，发展了工业协同减排路径分析技术方法，构建了双碳目标下工业减污降碳协同治理路径，并对其环境健康协同效应进行评估。 研究首先对综合评估模型GCAM-China中的工业部门模块进行改进，将分行业的技术预测模型耦合到综合评估模型中，将GCAM-China中的工业行业从3个增加到18个，技术增加到100种以上，实现对中国重点工业行业技术演进及排放特征演变的精细化模拟。利用改进的GCAM-China模型，研究基于情景分析方法构建了双碳目标下中国工业减排路径。发现在不同政策力度下，工业碳达峰时间将在2020-2024年之间，排放峰值在44.2-47.0亿吨之间。在碳中和目标约束下，2060年中国工业部门CO2排放将下降至7-9亿吨之间，主要的减排技术包括降低工业化石能源消费占比、提升电气化比例、发展电炉炼钢和碳捕集封存等。 研究进一步针对钢铁、水泥、玻璃和工业锅炉等四类重点排放源，利用设施级别排放数据库和大气化学伴随模式，逐设施核算其碳减排成本、资产搁浅成本和减排健康效益，在此基础上提出了设施级别的淘汰策略。研究发现与按照设计寿命自然淘汰的策略相比，考虑成本效益优化的淘汰策略可获得两倍以上的综合效益。 最后，研究将设施级别成本效益优化淘汰策略融入工业碳减排路径设计，同时考虑清洁空气目标下工业污染治理进程，构建了工业减污降碳协同治理路径，评估了协同治理的环境健康效应。研究发现，在减污降碳协同治理路径下，2030年和2060年中国工业排放导致的PM2.5暴露水平分别为7.5μg/m3和3.0μg/m3，相比2018年水平下降了35%和74%。与此同时，2030年和2060年工业部门PM2.5污染导致的过早死亡人数分别为38.7万人和26.2万人，实现了巨大的健康效益。

The industrial sector is an important source of CO2 and air pollutant emissions in China. Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, it is of great significance to explore the coordinated pathway of air pollution reduction and carbon reduction in China's industrial sector and the environmental health co-benefits. The integrated assessment model is one of the main tools to analysis future CO2 emission reduction, but the current mainstream models generally analyze the industry as a whole, lacking the evaluation of the emission reduction pathways at the individual sectors, technologies, and enterprise levels. Meanwhile, some studies focused on emission reduction pathways and co-benefits at the sector level is relatively independent and scattered, and no technical method system has been formed to support the design of industrial pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergistic pathways under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. To address this problem, this study builds a technical model to analyze industrial synergistic emission reduction pathways by coupling integrated assessment model, emission projection model, emission inventory model, atmospheric chemistry model and health benefit assessment model. And then constructs industrial pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergistic governance pathways under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets and evaluates their health co-benefits. This study first improved the industrial sector module in the integrated assessment model GCAM-China, couples the technology projection model of sub-sector into the integrated assessment model and increases the number of industrial sectors in GCAM-China from 3 to 18, and the technology increases to more than 100 types, to achieve refined simulation of the evolution of technology and emission characteristics of China's key industrial sectors. Using the improved GCAM-China model, this study constructs the China's industrial CO2 emission reduction pathway under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets. It is found that industrial carbon emission will peak in 2020-2024 and the peak emissions under different policy strengths will be between 4.42-4.70 billion tons. Under the carbon neutral target constraint, China's industrial sector CO2 emissions will drop to 0.7-0.9 billion tons in 2060, and the main emission reduction measures include reducing the share of industrial fossil energy consumption, increasing the proportion of electrification, developing electric furnace steelmaking and carbon capture and storage. This study further focused on four key emission sources of steel, cement, glass and industrial boilers, using the facility-level emission database and atmospheric chemistry model to evaluate the carbon emission reduction costs, asset stranded costs and air pollutant emission reduction health benefits, and then further propose facility-level phase-out strategies. It is found that compared with the strategy of natural elimination according to the designed lifetime, the elimination strategy considering cost-benefit optimization can obtain more than twice the comprehensive benefit. Finally, this study integrated the cost-effective elimination strategy at the facility level into the design of the industrial carbon emission reduction pathway and considers the industrial air pollution control process under the clean air target. This study found that under the coordinated governance of air pollution control and CO2 emission reduction, the PM2.5 exposure caused by industrial sector in China in 2030 and 2060 were 7.5μg/m3 and 3.0μg/m3, respectively, a decrease of 35% and 74% compared with the 2018. At the same time, the PM2.5-related premature deaths caused by industrial sector in 2030 and 2060 was 387,000 and 262,000, respectively, realizing huge health benefits.