在碳中和背景下，能源系统低碳转型是必然趋势。由于世界范围内都存在缺乏或者难扩建电网基础设施的地区，且离群社会生产形态将长期保有，因此，在碳减排目标驱动下针对广大偏远地区给出经济可靠且可持续的能源供应方案至关重要。考虑到偏远地区基础设施建设存在发展条件及投资约束，因此合理充分地利用当地可再生能源受到广泛关注。由一种或多种可再生能源以及备用组件组成的混合可再生能源系统能够有效缓解因可再生能源的间歇性与不确定性带来的系统过容问题，且随着可再生能源利用技术的进步和相关组件成本的降低，混合可再生能源系统为偏远地区经济可靠供能提供了潜在解决方案。因此，对偏远地区的混合可再生能源系统进行最优化设计与技术经济分析具有重要的现实意义。 本研究建立了混合可再生能源系统最优化设计模型与技术经济分析框架。该模型具备小时时间尺度的分辨率并包含多种可再生能源利用技术选项。基于此模型，且在对偏远地区能源供需特征进行较高时间精度刻画的基础上，本研究对处于不同发展阶段以及不同电网交互方式下的混合可再生能源系统进行了最优化设计，并对其技术经济可行性进行了分析，并量化评估了系统应用的环境效益。此外，通过敏感性分析对于多维度指标对混合可再生能源系统技术经济性的作用规律进行了深入研究，能够减少针对具体系统进行案例研究的局限性，为更广泛场景下的系统规划设计提供了参考。本研究紧密结合模型模拟回答了一系列现实问题，为减碳目标驱动下偏远地区能源系统的低碳发展提供了参考。 主要研究成果包括以下三个方面。其一，发展了小时时间尺度分辨率的混合可再生能源系统长运行周期规划设计建模方法，提升了系统在运行期内应对工况变化和不确定性因素影响的能力；其二，得到了混合可再生能源系统在不同电网交互方式及关键外部影响因素变化区间内的多维决策变量空间谱系，为确定系统与电网的交互方式提供了科学决策依据；其三，提出了碳减排目标驱动下电/氢二元能量载体混合可再生能源系统的设计方法，为偏远地区的电气化和低碳化进程规划提供了决策工具。
In the context of carbon neutrality, low-carbon transformation of energy system is an inevitable trend. Since there are regions that lack or are difficult to expand power grid infrastructure worldwide, and the production form of outlying society will remain for a long time, thus, it is of vital importance to provide an economic, reliable and sustainable energy supply solution for the wide range of remote areas driven by carbon emission reduction target. Considering the development conditions and investment constraints of infrastructure construction in remote areas, rational utilization of local renewable energy has attracted extensive attention worldwide. The hybrid renewable energy system including renewables and backup components has the advantage of dealing with the system over capacity problem caused by intermittent and uncertain characteristics of renewable energy. Owing to advancement in renewable energy utilization technologies and cost reduction of related components, the hybrid renewable energy system provides a sustainable solution for economic and reliable energy supply in remote areas. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to perform optimal design and techno-economic analysis of hybrid renewable energy systems in remote areas. In this study, an optimal design model of hybrid renewable energy system and economic analysis framework of hybrid renewable energy system is established. This model has hourly time scale resolution and includes a variety of renewable energy utilization technologies. Besides, high time precision characteristics of energy supply and demand are depicted. Based on this model, the hybrid renewable energy systems under different development stages and different grid interaction scenarios are optimized. Technical and economic feasibility of the hybrid renewable energy systems are analyzed, and environmental benefits of the system application are quantitatively evaluated. In addition, through sensitivity analysis, this study analyzed the effects of various key indicators on system techno-economic performances, so as to reduce the limitations of case study for specific systems, thus enlarge the scope of this study. Based on model simulation, this study answers a series of realistic problems and provides references for the development of low carbon energy systems in remote areas. The main research results include the following three aspects. First, an optimal design and modeling method of hybrid renewable energy system with hourly time scale resolution is developed, whilst considering system long-term operation. This improves the ability of the system to deal with the changes of working conditions and the influence of uncertain factors during the system operation period; Secondly, the spatial pedigree of multi-dimensional decision variables of hybrid renewable energy system under different power grid interaction modes and key external influencing factors is obtained, which provides scientific decision basis for determining the interaction mode between the system and power grid. Thirdly, driven by carbon emission reduction target, the design method of electric / hydrogen dual energy carrier hybrid renewable energy system is proposed, which provides a decision-making tool for electrification and low-carbon process planning in remote areas.
