地方产业空间结构政策是指地方政府以产业空间布局为调整对象的产业政策。 地方产业发展过程中经常出现区位导向频繁调整的现象，突显了地方产业空间结构政策不连续的问题；近年来党中央也一再强调“一张蓝图绘到底”，反映了其对以产业空间结构政策为核心的地方经济政策连续性的高度关注。为此，有必要以对地方产业空间结构政策连续性的量化测度为基础，系统研究其主要影响因素和经济后果，为促进中国特色产业政策的发展与完善提供理论基础和策略指引。论文以工业土地供给区位变化作为地方产业空间结构政策变化的表征，创新设计和构建了政策变动指数（PCI指数），首次度量并描述了近年来地方产业空间结构政策连续性情况。基于度量结果，论文理论和实证分析了地方官员更替对地方产业空间结构政策连续性的影响效应及其机制，以及产业空间结构政策不连续对经济投入产出、经济效率以及技术发展的影响。论文的主要结论有：（1）中国地方产业空间结构政策的连续程度整体在2013年前持续下降，后有所改善；东部沿海地区连续性低，中西部高，空间上有聚类表现。（2）地方领导官员更替是地方产业空间结构政策连续性下降的重要原因：地方官员出于提高“个人贡献比例”和“政绩”的双重动机，在上任初期先弱化原有重点发展区域、后设立新的重点发展区域，从而显著调整了地方产业空间结构政策；市委书记更替导致以PCI指数衡量的政策不连续程度上升5.6%个标准差。（3）产业空间结构政策不连续导致经济投入增加和产出下降：PCI指数每增加1个标准差，城市工业企业数量和资产规模分别增加3%和1.4%个标准差，但GDP增长率和工业总产值增长率将分别下降6.9%和7.6%个标准差。（4）产业空间结构政策不连续对城市经济效率和技术发展有负面影响：PCI指数1个标准差增加导致城市全要素生产率下降9.1%个标准差，影响仅在政策过度调整时存在；在技术发展方面，PCI指数1个标准差增加导致企业三种专利授权数下降2%个标准差。相应的政策建议：（1）利用本论文提出的PCI指数，可对地方产业空间结构政策连续性进行评估，重点跟进相关地区政策不连续问题。（2）为更好保持产业空间结构政策连续性，应做好政策跨任期调节，避免新上任领导官员出于个人政绩需求而大幅度改变政策。（3）地方政府进行必要的产业空间结构政策调整时，应配套鼓励企业技术创新的政策，减少政策变化对技术发展和产出效率的负面影响。

Local industrial spatial policy refers to the industrial policy of the local government with the industrial spatial layout as the adjustment object. Frequent adjustments of location orientation often occur in the process of local industrial development, which highlights the problem of discontinuity of local industrial spatial policy. In recent years, the Central Committee has repeatedly emphasized the importance of “sticking to one blueprint to the end”, which reflects its great concern for the continuity of local economic policy with industrial spatial policy as the core. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically study the main influencing factors and economic consequences of the continuity of local industrial spatial policy based on its quantitative measurement, so as to provide theoretical basis and strategic guidance for promoting the development and improvement of industrial policy with Chinese characteristics.This paper takes the change of industrial land supply location as the representation of the change of local industrial spatial policy, innovatively designs and constructs a policy change index (index named PCI), measures and describes the continuity of local industrial spatial policy in recent years for the first time. Based on the measurement results, this paper theoretically and empirically analyzes the impact effect and corresponding mechanism of local political turnover on the continuity of local industrial spatial policy, as well as the influences of industrial spatial policy discontinuity on economic input-output, economic efficiency and technological development.The main conclusions drawn in this paper are: (1) The overall continuity of China's local industrial spatial policy continued to decline before 2013 but then improved, and the continuity is low in the eastern coastal areas but high in the central and western regions with spatial clustering. (2) The turnover of local leading officials is an important reason for the decline of continuity of local industrial spatial policy. Local officials, motivated by the increasing of personal contribution ratio as well as the local economic performance (zheng ji) , tend to weaken the original key development areas and then establish new ones at the beginning of taking up the official post, thus significantly adjust the local industrial spatial policy. The turnover of city chief can lead to an increase of 5.6% standard deviation in the degree of policy discontinuity measured by the PCI index. (3) The discontinuity of industrial spatial policy leads to the increase of economic input and the decline of output. For every 1 standard deviation increase in PCI index, the number and asset scale of urban industrial enterprises will increase by 3% and 1.4% standard deviation respectively, but the growth rate of GDP and that of total industrial output value will decrease by 6.9% and 7.6% standard deviation respectively. (4) The discontinuity of industrial spatial policy has a negative impact on urban economic efficiency and technological development. The increase of one standard deviation of PCI index can lead to the decline of urban total factor productivity by 9.1% standard deviation, and the impact only exists when the policy is excessively adjusted. In terms of technological development, the increase of one standard deviation of PCI index can lead to a decrease of 2% standard deviation in the number of three types of patent authorizations The corresponding policy recommendations given by this paper are: (1) Using the PCI index proposed by this paper, one can evaluate the continuity of local industrial spatial policy, and then focus on the problem of policy discontinuity of relevant regions. (2) In order to better maintain the continuity of industrial spatial policy, it’s especially important to control policy discontinuity across terms of office, so as to avoid the new leading officials from greatly adjusting policy out of their personal needs related to political performance. (3) When making necessary adjustments to the industrial spatial policy, local governments should issue supporting policies to encourage technological innovation of enterprises, in order to reduce the negative impact of policy changes on technological development and productivity.