伴随着日益加快的城市化进程，以城市群为核心的空间发展格局逐渐形成。交通对城市群的形成和发展具有一定的支撑引领作用，但与此同时，自然灾害、恐怖袭击等干扰事件对交通网络正常运行带来了不容忽视的挑战。干扰事件下交通网络韧性成为关注焦点和热点，目前针对交通网络韧性的研究具有一定的局限性：一是以往对交通网络韧性的衡量多采用拓扑结构指标，无法展现交通系统的供求关系；二是既有研究中少有考虑基于韧性的灾后恢复策略以及路段和节点混合恢复情况；三是在灾前配置保护资源时缺乏对最不利干扰情景变动影响的考虑；四是对城市群综合交通网络的研究还没有深入到韧性评估与优化中。在此背景下，评估与优化城市群综合交通网络韧性对科学推进中国城市群发展具有重大意义。面对上述问题，本研究通过分析城市群综合交通网络的多方式性与出行本质，提出了基于出行满足率的韧性指标，构建了适用于城市群综合交通网络的韧性评估与优化模型，以粤港澳大湾区城市群综合交通网络为案例，验证了上述模型的有效性并提出相关建议。针对城市群综合交通网络基础设施韧性计算方法问题，从约束失效元素关联区出发，建立了动态关联区交通分配模型。结果显示，该模型可以有效计算韧性、提升计算效率，并通过模型确定粤港澳大湾区城市群综合交通网络的关键元素。针对灾后恢复顺序优化问题，考虑路段和节点混合恢复情况和出行者出行行为，建立了基于韧性的灾后恢复顺序优化模型。结果显示，该模型求解的恢复策略韧性值高于传统重要度恢复策略，证实该模型可以为制定综合交通网络灾后恢复决策提供更加科学有效的方法。针对灾前保护资源配置问题，在考虑政府方、干扰方和出行方之间关系的基础上，建立了基于韧性的灾前保护资源配置优化模型。结果显示，该模型比传统方法对韧性提升的效果好，说明了考虑最不利干扰情景变动的必要性。总之，本研究考虑防灾全过程，在城市群层面用复杂网络模拟方法，解决了韧性评估、灾后恢复顺序优化、灾前保护 资源配置优化等问题，丰富了城市群综合交通网络韧性研究，为提升城市群综合交通网络韧性提供理论支撑。并且，有利于完整全面地认识城市群综合交通网络韧性水平，提出有针对性的优化策略和政策建议，具有较强的现实意义。
Urban agglomerations have become the main platform of China’s economic development due to the accelerating process of urbanization. The formation and development of urban agglomeration are inseparable from the basic role of transportation. However, interference events such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks pose challenges to the normal operation of the transportation system, transportation network resilience under interference events has become the focus. At present, the research on transportation network resilience has certain limitations: First, the previous measurement of transportation network resilience mostly adopts topology network index, which cannot show the supply-demand relationship of transportation system; Second, the existing studies seldom consider the post-disaster recovery stage and the mixed recovery of nodes and edges in the resilience optimization; Third, there has been a lack of the analysis of the change of the most unfavorable interference scenario in the pre-disaster protection resource allocation; Fourth, there is a lack of in-depth studies on the resilience for comprehensive transportation network of urban agglomeration. In this context, evaluating and optimizing the resilience of a comprehensive transportation network is of great significance to scientifically promote the construction of comprehensive transportation system of China's urban agglomeration comprehensive transportation system.In the face of the above problems, this research analyzes the multimodality and travel essence of the comprehensive transportation network of urban agglomeration, constructs the resilience index based on the travel satisfaction rate, and puts forward the resilience evaluation and optimization model suitable for the comprehensive transportation network. Taking the comprehensive transportation network of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as an example, this research verifies the effectiveness of the model and puts forward suggestions.Aiming at the resilience evaluation of urban agglomeration comprehensive transportation network, starting from the correlation area of failure elements, a dynamic correlation area traffic allocation model for resilience evaluation is proposed. The results of the GBA show that the model can successfully calculate the resilience of transportation network and improve the calculation efficiency, and determine the key elements of the comprehensive transportation network of the GBA.Aiming at the optimization problem of post-disaster recovery sequence, considering the mixed recovery of nodes and edges and travel behavior, an optimization model based on resilience is proposed. The results of the GBA show that the resilience of the recovery strategy solved by the model is larger than the empirical recovery strategy, which indicates the model provides a more scientific and effective method for making the post-disaster recovery decision of comprehensive transportation network.Aiming at the problem of pre-disaster resource allocation, an optimization model based on resilience is established by considering the relationship between the government strategy, the interference strategy and travel behavior. The results indicate that the model has better effect than the traditional method on resilience improvement, which emphasizes the necessity of considering the change of the most unfavorable interference scenario.In general, considering the whole process of the interference, this research uses the complex network simulation method, solves the problems of single-element evaluation，post-disaster recovery sequence optimization and pre-disaster resource allocation optimization. It enriches the research on the resilience of urban agglomeration comprehensive transportation network, provides theoretical support for improving resilience. Also, it is conducive to a full understanding of the resilience level of urban agglomeration comprehensive transportation network, and puts forward targeted optimization strategies and policy suggestions, which has strong practical significance.
