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中国居民消费气候减缓措施的环境影响及健康协同效益

The environmental impacts and health co-benefits of climate mitigation measures on household consumption in China

作者:鲁晨曦
  • 学号
    2016******
  • 学位
    博士
  • 电子邮箱
    luc******.cn
  • 答辩日期
    2022.06.23
  • 导师
    刘竹
  • 学科名
    生态学
  • 页码
    121
  • 保密级别
    公开
  • 培养单位
    046 地学系
  • 中文关键词
    居民能源消耗,气候减缓,健康协同效益,经济效益,城镇和农村
  • 英文关键词
    household energy consumption, climate mitigation, health co-benefits,economic benefits, urban and rural

摘要

居民部门是气候减缓政策的关键实施部门。过去的研究主要集中在对生产端进行减缓措施的影响分析,而如何对居民消费活动实施气候减缓措施,并评估减缓措施导致的居民消费变化对环境和不同人群的健康协同效益是亟待解决的科学问题。针对这一科学问题,本研究通过将居民部门耦合到能源清单数据、温室气体-空气污染相互作用和协同模型 (GAINS)、全球暴露死亡模型(GEMM)和健康经济模型优化了一套综合评估模型 (IAM) 来量化评估中国城镇和农村居民直接和间接消费活动的能源消耗(简称能耗);分析对消费活动实施减缓措施的健康协同效益;提出针对居民消费活动的政策优化建议。居民消费活动的能耗分为直接能耗和间接能耗,因此研究首先分析了中国城镇和农村居民的直接能耗现状,分析了清洁能源转型对不同年龄和性别人群的健康协同效益。之后进一步开展了城镇和农村居民八大消费活动(食品,衣着,居住,生活用品及服务,交通和通讯服务,教育文化娱乐服务,医药和医疗服务,和其他用品及服务)的间接能耗研究,并分析出在中国城市化进程中应该被优先和重点实施减缓措施的居民消费活动,并通过结合消费端和生产端,对不同收入区域提出了针对性的气候减缓措施。最后,研究通过情景分析探讨了对居民消费活动中的交通出行方式实施气候减缓措施对不同人群的健康协同效益。研究发现:1、针对居民的直接或者间接消费活动的减排措施均可以产生潜在较大的健康协同效益,但是这些协同效益呈现出城乡、省市、不同性别和年龄分布的异质性。2、研究识别出了在中国的城市化进程中,与住房、交通相关的居民消费活动的能耗有较大的预期增长幅度;为更好针对居民消费活动实施减缓措施,第一收入区域既要降低本区域的消费水平, 尤其是对理想和奢华商品和服务的消费,又要提高工业生产的能耗效率,尤其在交通运输、仓储和邮政行业和服务行业上。3、针对北京市的情景案例研究表明,步行,骑行,公共交通(简称绿色出行)和电动汽车出行相结合可以产生最大的健康协同效益,其中绿色出行的增加起着至关重要的作用。本研究为中国居民消费活动的气候减缓措施及减缓措施对国家/区域/省市不同年龄和性别群体的健康协同效益研究提供了新的见解。在政策制定中考虑不同社会群体的有益和不利因素对于提高环境正义是必要的。

Household sector is a key sector for deploying climate mitigation strategy. Previous research has mainly focused on the impact analysis of mitigation measures at supply side. However, how to implement climate mitigation measures for household consumption activities and evaluate health co-benefits among different populations resulting from household consumption changes when conducting mitigation strategies is an unanswered research question. To answer this research question, the household sector is added into an integrated assessment model (IAM), coupling the energy inventory data, a Greenhouse Gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, a Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM), and a Health Economic Model. The IAM is used to conduct an analysis of direct and indirect energy consumption of household activities, and health co-benefits of deploying mitigation strategies of household consumption. We then propose suggestions for improving policy making regarding household energy consumption. Household energy consumption is divided into the direct and indirect. In this thesis, first, an analysis of household direct consumption activities and health co-benefits across age- and gender- specific populations, when deploying the clean energy transition for rural and urban households in China is conducted. Second, household indirect energy consumption is studied, and household consumption activities are classified into eight different categories: food; clothing; housing; household facilities articles and services (abbreviated as facilities); transport and communication services (transport); education; cultural and recreation services (education); medicine and medical services (health) and miscellaneous commodities and services (miscell). These categories are used to identify on which sources of energy consumption to put the emphasis of mitigation strategies, under the ongoing urbanization, in both rural and urban areas. Finally, implementing a mitigation strategy in household transport activities, to better know the potential health co-benefits across subpopulations when households adopt a “greener” mode of transport or switch to electric vehicles. A case study is done in Beijing, China, exploring mitigation scenarios through household transport pattern changes.The findings of this thesis are: 1) The implementation of climate mitigation strategies in households’ direct and indirect consumption activities can potentially generate large health benefits and economic benefits, but the distribution of these co-benefits shows regional, provincial and gender- and age- heterogeneity. 2) During China's urbanization, energy consumption of household activities related to housing and transport are expected to increase several folds; to better deploy mitigation measures for household consumption activities, regions in the first wealth quintile have the highest average income should take up the responsibility of degrading its own consumption level, especially in the consumption of aspirational and opulent goods and services and improve its own industrial energy efficiency, especially in transport, storage and transport equipment and service sector. 3) When adopting climate mitigation strategies in households’ transport modes, a case study done in Beijing, China, finds that the combination of walking, cycling and use of public transport (abbreviated as “green” transport) and electric vehicles, can generate the largest health co-benefits, with the increased use of green transport having the highest impact. This study provides new insights into the climate mitigation measures on Chinese household consumption activities and their health co-benefits across different age and gender groups at the national/regional/provincial level. Taking into account different social groups’ benefits and disadvantages for the policy making is necessary to increase the environmental justice.