专项债券是我国地方政府一种举债融资的新兴手段，是地方政府债券品种之一，资金用于能够产生收入的公共性项目，通过政府性基金或项目收益偿还。在政策引导下，我国的地方政府专项债券开始在全国范围内推广，发行规模也逐年增加，专项债券发挥了降低发行成本、防范债务风险、促进基建和公共服务项目建设的作用。然而，当前的专项债市场仍存在着诸多不完善之处。信息披露不充分、流通性差、投资者较为单一、行政干预过强等多重因素叠加作用下，专项债券的利率长期处于紧贴国债的状态，甚至出现倒挂，专项债券发行定价市场化有待推进。 基于以上背景，本文希望通过实证分析，探究影响我国地方政府专项债券发行定价的因素。本文回顾了中国地方专项债从出现到推广的变化过程，梳理统计了专项债券特点和发行现状，结合学界相关理论，梳理了中国各地方专项债券发行定价的原理、发展变化及现存问题。结合现有文献和调研所得，本文选取债券自身角度的发行面额、发行期限，地方经济角度的GDP增速、第三产业占比、常住人口，地方政府角度的债务率、财政自给率、土地财政依赖程度、固定资产投资增速、PPP项目投资额、官员变动、转移支付依赖程度、政府与市场关系得分作为解释变量，选择专项债券发行利率和同一日的相同待偿期国债收益率之间的利差作为被解释变量，选择市场环境中的无风险利率、M2、CPI增速、Shibor作为控制变量，以2015年至2020年的2930只专项债券为样本进行回归分析。 根据实证研究结果，本文发现发行面额、债务率、固定资产投资增速、PPP项目投资额与地方政府专项债券发行利差呈显著正相关关系，发行期限、GDP增速、第三产业占比、常住人口、财政自给率、土地财政依赖程度、官员变动、转移支付依赖程度、政府与市场关系得分与地方政府专项债券发行利差呈显著负相关关系，实证结果体现出我国地方政府专项债券发行定价市场化仍存在不少提升空间。结合分析结果，本文总结了当前我国专项债券发行定价中现存的问题，并为推动我国政府专项债券定价市场化的进程提出了针对性的政策建议。
Local government special bonds are one of the important means of debt financing for local governments in my country. The bonds are used for public welfare projects with certain income and are repaid through government funds or project income. Since 2014, the central government has successively issued policies and regulations to strengthen the management of local government debt and clarify the issuance requirements of special bonds. Local government special bonds have begun to take off. Under the guidance of policies, local government special bonds have begun to be widely promoted nationwide, and the issuance scale has also increased year by year. Special bonds have played a role in reducing issuance costs, preventing debt risks, and promoting infrastructure and public service construction. However, there are still many imperfections in the special bond market. Under the effect of multiple factors such as insufficient information disclosure, poor liquidity, undiversified investors, and excessive administrative intervention, the pricing of special bonds has been closely related to national debt for a long time, or even lower, and the marketization of special bond pricing needs to be promoted. Based on the above background, this paper reviews the development history of local government special bonds in China, captures the characteristics of special bond issuance, and sorts out the principles, changes and existing problems of local government special bond issuance and pricing in China based on relevant theories. According to existing literature and research findings, the spread between the price of local government special bonds and treasury yield is used as the explained variable. Issue value and issue term from the perspective of the bond itself, GDP growth rate, proportion of the tertiary industry, permanent population from the perspective of the local economy, debt ratio, fiscal self-support rate, dependency of land finance, growth rate of fixed asset investment, growth rate of PPP projects, changes of officials, dependency of transfer payment, and the score of the relationship between the market and the government from the perspective of local government are used as explanatory variables. Risk-free interest rate, M2, CPI growth rate and Shibor are used as control variables. This paper conducts regression analysis of 2930 local government special bonds from 2015 to 2020. The interest rate spread of the local government special bonds has significantly positive correlation with issue value, debt ratio, growth rate of fixed asset investment, growth rate of PPP projects, and negative correlation with issue term, GDP growth rate, proportion of the tertiary industry, permanent population, fiscal self-support rate, dependency of land finance, changes of officials, dependency of transfer payment, and the score of the relationship between the government and the market. According to the regression results, this paper summarizes the existing problems in the pricing of local government special bonds, and puts forward policy suggestions for promoting the pricing marketization of government special bonds in China.
