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跨境电商创新实践和估值分析——以T公司为例

Cross-border E-commerce Innovation Practice and Valuation Analysis——Company T Case Study

作者:宋宇航
  • 学号
    2019******
  • 学位
    硕士
  • 答辩日期
    2022.05.14
  • 导师
    武捷思
  • 学科名
    工商管理
  • 页码
    67
  • 保密级别
    公开
  • 培养单位
    060 金融学院
  • 中文关键词
    跨境电商,估值,创新模式,SaaS服务
  • 英文关键词
    Cross-border e-commerce,valuation, innovation model,SaaS services

摘要

2013年是跨境电商元年,到如今已经连续八年写入中国政府工作报告。跨境电商是中国加快融入国际贸易格局和促进双循环战略的重要创新模式,是传统的互联网电子商务基础上不断的发展并且加以改进的新型的电子商务的发展方式,不仅改变人们的消费习惯,还深刻变革我国对外贸易。尤其在疫情之后,跨境电商的爆发性增长更加快其过程。这个行业经历了复杂的演变,不断推陈出新。而在资本市场上,无论是一级市场还是二级市场,跨境电商的标的都受到了极大的关注,投融资事件的频次和量级都在不断攀升。因此,研究跨境电商的创新模式和估值方法,对于推进我国贸易数字化发展、中国供应链溢出和品牌出海有着重要的价值和意义。同时,通过估值模型的范式研究,也促进资本市场对跨境电商标的价值认知,为资本市场理解跨境电商、增加行业流动性提供判断基础,促进其健康发展,形成良性循环。目前,跨境电商由于发展时间尚短,目前的研究主要有三个方面的局限。首先,研究跨境电商基础模式较多,然而对于近一两年、尤其是疫情之后跨境电商的发展方向,尚没有系统梳理。第二,当前文献和研究对电商企业的估值方法和建模更多是学术范式,对于市场上更为通用的可比公司法尚未有有效尝试。第三,目前对跨境电商的模式研究偏中宏观和政策理论分析,对于详细的个案和创新模式估值没有典型案例剖析,无法形成有效参考样本。本文尝试在前人的研究基础上,总结和阐释目前跨境电商行业发展现状、痛点难点和经营模式,增加了近70小时的一手访谈素材,和真实的估值模型数据。同时,本文以T公司为例,选择一个细分类别——B2B跨境电商行业的痛点,深入阐释T公司的创新模式如何解决行业痛点,鲜活反映了目前该行业工具赋能和一站式履约的创新趋势。本文通过对影响T公司估值的关键参数进行拆解,围绕B2B跨境电商的主要收入构成——订阅解决方案和商家解决方案,详细阐释T公司的创新模式如何影响上述参数,进而影响其估值。最后,本文尝试结合4个可比公司的案例,通过对比研究引入影响T公司的创新因子α,对T公司的估值模型进行调整后,预测其2022年的估值范围,为同类型B2B跨境电商企业创新模式发展提供一定的参考。本文发现,影响跨境电商估值的关键经营在于货币化率、成交总额和每用户平均收入,进而影响订阅解决方案和商家解决方案针的收入构成。因此对这三个指标进行优化的跨境电商企业将会获得更高的估值。

2013 was the first year of cross-border e-commerce, and now it has been written into the Chinese government‘s work report for eight consecutive years. Cross-border e-commerce is an important innovation model for China to accelerate its integration into the international trade pattern and promote the Dual-circulation strategy. It is a new type of e-commerce development based on the traditional Internet e-commerce that is constantly developed and improved, not only changing people‘s consumption habits but also profoundly transforming China‘s foreign trade. Especially since the Covid-19, the explosive growth of cross-border e-commerce has accelerated this process. This industry has undergone a complex evolution and continues. In the capital market, cross-border e-commerce investment targets have received great attention in both the primary and secondary markets, with the frequency and magnitude of investment and financing events climbing. Therefore, it is of great value and significance to study the innovative models and valuation methods of cross-border e-commerce to promote the digital development of China‘s trade, China‘s supply chain overflow and Chinese brands going abroad. At the same time, the paradigm study of valuation models also promotes the capital market‘s perception of the value of cross-border e-commerce, providing a judgment basis for the capital market to understand cross-border e-commerce and increase the liquidity of the industry, promoting its healthy development and forming a virtuous cycle.At present, cross-border e-commerce has three main limitations in the current research due to its short development time. First, there are more studies on the basic model of cross-border e-commerce, however, there is no systematic sorting out of the development direction of cross-border e-commerce in the past one or two years, especially after the Covid-19. Second, the current literature and studies on valuation methods and modeling of e-commerce enterprises are more academic paradigms, and there have been no effective attempts on comparable company method that are more common in the real market practice. Third, the current model research on cross-border e-commerce is more focused on macro and policy theory analysis, and there is no typical case analysis for detailed case and innovative model valuation to form an effective reference sample.This paper attempts to summarize and explain the current development status, pain points and difficulties and business models of the cross-border e-commerce industry based on the previous research, adding nearly 70 hours of first-hand interview materials, and real valuation model data. At the same time, this paper takes Company T as an example, selects a sub-category - B2B cross-border e-commerce industry, and explains in depth how Company T‘s innovative model solves the pain points of the industry, vividly reflecting the current innovation trend of tool empowerment and one-stop fulfillment in the industry. In addition, this paper dismantles the key parameters affecting T Company‘s valuation, analyzing its key operating parameters - capitalization rate, total transaction volume and revenue per user - around the main revenue components of B2B cross-border e-commerce - subscription solutions and merchant solutions and explain in detail how T‘s innovation model affects the above parameters and thus its valuation. Finally, this paper attempts to combine the cases of four comparable companies, introduce the innovation factor α affecting Company T through comparative study, and forecast the valuation range of Company T in 2022 after adjusting its valuation model, so as to provide some reference for the development of the innovation model of the same type of B2B cross-border e-commerce enterprises.