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经济复杂性、经济增长与区域经济格局

Economic Complexity, Economic Growth and Regional Economic Pattern: An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

作者:姜力榕
  • 学号
    2019******
  • 学位
    硕士
  • 电子邮箱
    jlr******.cn
  • 答辩日期
    2022.05.20
  • 导师
    周绍杰
  • 学科名
    公共管理
  • 页码
    86
  • 保密级别
    公开
  • 培养单位
    059 公管学院
  • 中文关键词
    经济复杂性,产业结构,创新,区域经济增长
  • 英文关键词
    economic complexity, industrial structure, innovation, regional economic growth

摘要

随着我国经济总量持续增长,高质量发展成为新发展阶段的重要议题。高质量发展的背后,要求加快产业转型升级,加快新旧动能转换,推动经济复杂性稳步提升。本文在梳理国内外有关经济复杂性的相关研究基础上,全面评价各省产业结构特点,测度我国各省经济复杂性,并探究经济复杂性何以促进区域经济增长,提出推动我国经济高质量发展的相关建议。本文基于省际行业间贸易增值税发票数据,从三次产业和要素密集型角度分析我国31省的产业结构。在广泛阅读经济复杂性相关文献的基础上,借鉴国内外研究中最常用的反射法,测度我国31省份的行业多样性、优势行业普遍性和经济复杂性指数,并进行时空对比分析。同时,使用2007年、2010年、2013年全国31个省份的平衡面板数据建立固定效应模型,在剔除模型可能存在的多重共线性等问题的基础上,探究创新对区域经济复杂性的影响以及区域经济复杂性与区域经济增长的关系。本文研究表明:第一,2007-2013年间,我国区域经济格局呈现出“东强西弱”“南快北慢”的特点。在产业结构和经济复杂性方面,北京和东南沿海的上海、浙江、江苏、广东在全国范围内具有绝对的优势竞争力。第二,创新水平是区域经济发展的重要内在驱动力,对于提升优势行业竞争力、推动产业转型升级、提高区域经济复杂性具有促进作用。第三,经济复杂性的提高有利于带动区域经济增长,不仅具有短期效益,而且将在长期中对区域经济产生持续性影响。基于此,本文提出政策建议如下:坚持推进区域协调发展战略,因地制宜实施产业政策,促进产业结构优化升级,培育地区自主创新能力,推动经济复杂性稳步提升,实现我国经济高质量发展。

With the rapid and continuous growth of China's economy, promoting high-quality economic development has aroused wide attention in the new stage. High-quality development requires accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading, replacing old drivers of growth with new ones, and steadily increasing the economic complexity. This paper aims to comprehensively evaluate the industrial structure of each province, measure the economic complexity index of each province in China, and explore its relationship with regional economic growth on the basis of combing the relevant theories and literatures about economic complexity at home and abroad, and put forward relevant suggestions for promoting high-quality economic growth in China.Based on the value-added tax invoice data of inter-provincial trade, this paper analyzes the industrial structure of 31 provinces in China from the perspective of tertiary industry and factor intensive. Based on the extensive reading of literature on economic complexity and the most commonly used reflexive method in domestic and foreign studies, this paper measures the industry diversity, dominant industry ubiquity and economic complexity index of 31 provinces in China, and makes a comparative analysis in time and space. At the same time, using the balanced panel data of 31 provinces in China in 2007, 2010 and 2013, a fixed effect model is established to explore the impact of innovation on regional economic complexity and the relationship between regional economic complexity and regional economic growth on the basis of fully considering the possible multicollinearity of the model.The conclusions are as follows. First, from 2007 to 2013, China's regional economic pattern showed a situation of "strong east, weak west" and "strong south, weak north". In terms of industrial structure and economic complexity, Beijing and the eastern coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong have absolute competitive advantages in the whole country. Second, innovation level is an important internal driving force of regional economic development, which can promote the competitiveness of industries, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and increase the regional economic complexity. Third, the increase of economic complexity is conducive to promoting regional economic growth, which not only has short-term benefits, but also has substantial impact on regional economy in the long run.Based on these, this paper proposes to adhere to the regional coordinated development strategy, implement industrial policies according to local conditions, promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, cultivate regional independent innovation ability, and promote the steady increase of economic complexity for the purpose of high-quality economic development in China.