随着深圳城市化的发展，人类活动严重影响了深圳湾的生态环境。本文通过分析深圳湾水质演变规律，研究陆源营养盐入湾负荷以及对水质的影响，并建立Ecopath生态模型研究深圳湾生态系统结构及健康状态，为深圳湾的治理提供参考。通过深圳湾2000-2020年长历时水质分析表明，深圳湾TP和TN超IV类海水水质标准，外湾主要受珠江口来流影响，一直是磷酸盐限制；内湾主要受深圳河的来流影响，前10年主要是硅酸盐限制，后10年基本是磷酸盐限制。内湾营养限制的改变跟陆源营养盐削减密切相关。2000-2020年，深圳湾流域TN和TP入湾负荷分别为9605.61-17385.83 t和673.07-1545.77 t，深圳侧陆源占84%-96%和88%-94%，面源是主要的入湾负荷，2005年后面源占50%以上。2011年前深圳湾入湾负荷呈波动下降的趋势，2011年后处于上下波动变化状态；面源主要随年降雨量大小而上下波动，前10年入湾负荷波动下降是因为深圳侧的点源在削减。从深圳侧的入湾总负荷看，后10年TP和TN比前10年平均削减了27.37%和20.18%，TN和TP不平衡的削减可能是导致深圳湾内湾趋于磷限制的主要原因。建立了深圳湾Ecopath生态模型，通过模型研究了深圳湾生态系统的结构，其营养流动由2条途径组成。其中一条是牧食性食物链，能量流动路径为浮游植物→浮游动物、多毛、软棘皮、蟹类（其他底栖生物）→虾类、头足类、其他甲壳类生物（鲈形目）→（大眼鲷目、石首鱼科和带鱼科）；另一条是碎屑食物链，能量流动路径为：碎屑→浮游动物、多毛、软体动物、棘皮生物→虾蟹头足类等→鱼类。系统所需的所有能量均由浮游植物和碎屑所提供。通过模型研究深圳湾2013年生态状况和增殖放流生态方案的效果，结果表明这两种状态下生态系统年总流量分别为3843.23 t/km2、3750.29 t/km2，其中，总消耗量分别占比为49.31%、48.74%，总输出量为负值，说明深圳湾是一个能量汇。总初级生产量与总呼吸量之比为0.67-0.69，表明深圳湾生态受到有机污染。总初级生产量与总生物量之比为8.2-8.6，说明系统处在一个能量积累的状态。增殖放流生态方案增加四种鱼类功能组，模型结果表明，实施方案后改善了深圳湾生态系统，提高了湾内生态系统的食物网复杂程度和杂食性程度，生态系统稳定性也有所提高。

With the development of urbanization in Shenzhen, human activities have seriously affected the ecological environment of Shenzhen Bay. In this paper, we analyzed the evolution of water quality in Shenzhen Bay, studied the load of nutrients from land-based sources into the bay and the impact on water quality, and established Ecopath ecological model to study the structure and health of the ecosystem in Shenzhen Bay, so as to provide reference for the governance of Shenzhen Bay.The water quality analysis of Shenzhen Bay from 2000 to 2020 showed that the TP and TN of Shenzhen Bay exceeded the water quality standard of Class IV. The outer bay was mainly influenced by the incoming flow from the Pearl River Estuary, which was always phosphate limited; the inner bay was mainly influenced by the incoming flow from Shenzhen River, which was mainly silicate limited in the first 10 years and basically phosphate limited in the latter 10 years. The change of nutrient limitation in the inner bay is closely related to the reduction of nutrient salts from land-based sources.From 2000 to 2020, the inlet load of TN and TP in Shenzhen Bay watershed were 9605.61-17385.83 tons and 673.07-1545.77 tons, respectively, with 84%-96% and 88%-94% from land-based sources on the Shenzhen side, and the surface source was the main inlet load, with the latter source accounting for more than 50% in 2005. The surface source mainly fluctuates with the size of annual rainfall, and the fluctuation of inlet load in the first 10 years is due to the reduction of point source on the Shenzhen side. From the total load into the bay on the Shenzhen side, TP and TN were cut by 27.37% and 20.18% on average in the latter 10 years compared with the former 10 years, and the unbalanced cut of TN and TP may be the main reason for the tendency of phosphorus limitation in the inner bay of Shenzhen Bay.An Ecopath ecological model of Shenzhen Bay was established, through which the structure of the Shenzhen Bay ecosystem was studied, and its nutrient flow consisted of 2 pathways. One is the pastoral food chain, the energy flow path is: phytoplankton → zooplankton, polychaete, soft echinoderms, crabs (other benthic organisms) → shrimps, cephalopods, other crustaceans (Perciformes) → (walleye seabreams, grouper family and striped bass family); the other is the detritus food chain, the energy flow path is: detritus → zooplankton, polychaete, mollusks, echinoderms → shrimps, crabs, cephalopods, etc. → fish.Zooplankton and benthic organisms are the key species of the food web. All the energy required by the system is provided by phytoplankton and detritus.The results of the model study on the ecological condition of Shenzhen Bay in 2013 and the effect of the ecological scheme of stocking and releasing showed that the total flow of the ecosystem in these two states of 2013 was 3843.23 t/km2 and 3750.29 t/km2, of which the total consumption was 49.31% and 48.74%, respectively, and the total output was negative, indicating that Shenzhen Bay is an energy sink. The ratio of total primary production to total respiration was 0.67-0.69, indicating that the ecology of Shenzhen Bay was organically polluted. The ratio of total primary production to total biomass is 8.2-8.6, indicating that the system is in a state of energy accumulation. The model results of the stocking and releasing ecological program with the addition of four fish functional groups showed that the implementation of the program improved the Shenzhen Bay ecosystem, increased the complexity of the food web and the degree of omnivory in the bay ecosystem, and improved the stability of the ecosystem.